GA-06, GQR (D): Biden +7

[GeorgiaModerate]

GA-06: GQR for End Citizens United, Aug. 11-16, 401 LV

Biden 52
Trump 45

McBath 50, Handel 47

Trump +1.5 in 2016.

[Sir Mohamed]

Not bad. GA is a tossup/tilt R state this race. Trump will likely pull it off by about 2 pts. McBath should be fine.

[Roll Roons]

How did Abrams do here?

[Devout Centrist]

How much did Abrams win the district by?

~3.5%

[Gracile]

The link to the full poll is broken.

[ON Progressive]

The link to the full poll is broken.

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

This should work.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The link to the full poll is broken.

https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/ECU-GA06-Memo.pdf

This should work.

I fixed it in the OP too.

[Oryxslayer]

Yeah Abrams won the district by 3.5%, 51/47.5. Obviously a D internal would be rosier about democratic prospects here, but even if we try to correct for that bias Biden is still more or less matching Abrams margin.

[Crumpets]

This is exactly the type of district where we'd expect Biden to be performing well regardless of how he's doing elsewhere. I'd personally really like to see some rural district numbers to get a sense if these swings in the suburbs continue to be matched by falling numbers elsewhere or if Biden is holding steady in rural areas while gaining in the more urban areas.

[wbrocks67]

If Biden is actually up 7 here, then that would point to him eking out a win statewide.

Kinda shocked at the congress race though - would assume McBath is in way better position than this.

[Person Man]

Apparently Democrats are doing what they need to do in the suburbs. I feel that if they lose, it will be because the big cities stayed home or defected on one or two issues that Democrats didn't address. Pretty much Florida 2018.

[Devils30]

This and GA-7 suggest Biden is running ahead of Abrams. The state is going to be extremely close in the end, might not be one we know on election night.

[Sbane]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

[WD]

Perdue is probably cracking 60%, definitely going to be a lot of ticket splitting.

[wbrocks67]

Really wish they would've polled the Senate race too, so we could see how Ossoff is doing compared to Biden

[ON Progressive]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

The thing is that polling actually shows Biden is gaining on Clinton most in rural areas nationally. Granted, this may not be quite as true in Georgia but rural GA is already obscenely Republican to the point where it is hard to see Trump doing much better than Kemp did in rural GA.

If Biden even just doesn’t do worse than Abrams in rurals (and I don’t think he will) and still improves substantially in suburbs (this poll has Biden doing twice as good as Abrams), he will win GA.

[tagimaucia]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

I'm not sure that Biden needs *that* much of a bigger margin in suburbs/metro Atlanta than Abrams to win the state. If demographic and urban/suburban/rural margins from 2018 gubernatorial results stayed pretty much the same and the electorate was just a tiny bit younger, which was by far the largest demographic difference between 2016 and 2018, GA would be really, really close to a tie.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 4.9%

[Podgy the Bear]

Living here in GA-06, McBath will do better than the current 50-47.  She is advertising very well and is making good overtures to the independents and even Republicans.  Handel is doing little or nothing so far, and she's branded as a multiple time loser, even by Republicans.

Good to know that Biden running at +7.  If the turnout is as good as hoped, he could pull it out in GA.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Living here in GA-06, McBath will do better than the current 50-47.  She is advertising very well and is making good overtures to the independents and even Republicans.  Handel is doing little or nothing so far, and she's branded as a multiple time loser, even by Republicans.

Good to know that Biden running at +7.  If the turnout is as good as hoped, he could pull it out in GA.

I'm actually in Loudermilk's district but the same media market and I haven't seen any ads from Handel either. I do love that ad McBath has out where she at her son's grave and says she turned her son's death into action.

[Sbane]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

I'm not sure that Biden needs *that* much of a bigger margin in suburbs/metro Atlanta than Abrams to win the state. If demographic and urban/suburban/rural margins from 2018 gubernatorial results stayed pretty much the same and the electorate was just a tiny bit younger, which was by far the largest demographic difference between 2016 and 2018, GA would be really, really close to a tie.

This is an internal poll. If they say it is only Biden +7 then the reality is closer to Biden up by a few points. That is about the same as Abrams.

[Sbane]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

The thing is that polling actually shows Biden is gaining on Clinton most in rural areas nationally. Granted, this may not be quite as true in Georgia but rural GA is already obscenely Republican to the point where it is hard to see Trump doing much better than Kemp did in rural GA.

If Biden even just doesn’t do worse than Abrams in rurals (and I don’t think he will) and still improves substantially in suburbs (this poll has Biden doing twice as good as Abrams), he will win GA.

Yes, Biden might gain in rural areas across the west and perhaps the Midwest and Northeast as well, but probably not in the South. There wasn't as much of a third party vote in the South and I do expect Trump to get his 2016 numbers in rural areas almost everywhere. The third party vote might swing Biden though.

[tagimaucia]

I would have expected a greater swing, especially from a Dem internal. Rural areas will not be swinging away from Trump so these big swings in the suburbs are required.

I'm not sure that Biden needs *that* much of a bigger margin in suburbs/metro Atlanta than Abrams to win the state. If demographic and urban/suburban/rural margins from 2018 gubernatorial results stayed pretty much the same and the electorate was just a tiny bit younger, which was by far the largest demographic difference between 2016 and 2018, GA would be really, really close to a tie.

This is an internal poll. If they say it is only Biden +7 then the reality is closer to Biden up by a few points. That is about the same as Abrams.

What I really should have said is that I'm not sure he needs a bigger margin at all. 

I usually mentally shave 4-5 points of the margin of an internal poll, but in this case, I see no reason whatsoever to believe that McBath would do worse in 2020 than 2018.  I grew up in this congressional district and the political change there is rapid and visible. I know this is very anecdotal, but I do think its quite representative of huge swathes of this district-- the neighborhood my parents live in went for Romney 8 years ago and now has a BLM sign in front of at least every 10th house or so.  If McBath doesn't win by at least the same margin as in 2018 I'd be absolutely shocked.

[Roronoa D. Law]

There aren't many rural areas Biden can improve in over Abrams. Unless you include Non-Atlanta suburbs like Columbia, Houston, and Bryan counties as rural. Other than that only Glynn and Greene will see significant bumps but this could also be the year where Oconee county swings hard D. Republican support there is extremely inflated given that it has the highest percentage of advanced degrees holders than any other county that votes Republican