Fear and Law & Order - How does it play?

[Admiral Stockdale]

It looks like the GOP is going (at least in part) down the fear, crime, police, safety, etc. road.  How does this play with voters that polling shows are coming back to the Dems - namely, suburban women, upper middle class college educated whites, etc.?  Does it vary by region?

[Ferguson97]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

[Admiral Stockdale]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

[Ferguson97]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1296650701767159816

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

Yeah. I think there might be space for an actual "law & order" crusader, but that rhetoric being spouted by infamous scofflaw Donald Trump is not going to change votes in any significant numbers.

[Horus]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

Err this is arguably most true in places like Gwinnett or fort bend county. Long island burbs are trending right.

[Admiral Stockdale]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

Crosstabs on that poll show it to be 72% from two states (PA and MI).  Not sure I buy it showing NC, AZ or WI.  

Interesting none the less.  Basically shows it going back to Obama's 2nd term vote.  

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

A lot of voters will just blame the incumbent for an issue like this. They did it with Obama and now they’re doing it with Trump. Some of the poor reaction to his message is because of genuine shifts in public opinion on the issues, but I’m afraid it could still be a fairly fragile - this could still be a successful message in the long term for non-incumbents (even if a member of their party holds the presidency).

[Suburbia]

It probably works for a while.

A lot of police unions are endorsing Trump, more than in 2016.

But COVID and the economy will matter the most.

[catographer]

Two types of people respond well to the “law and order” BS:

1. White rural conservatives who don’t live in urban and suburban places. It’s culture war dog whistle for them: “You don’t want your small town (white) to become like Detroit or Baltimore (Black), do you?”

2. White conservatives in segregated suburbs like Long Island and much of the South. It’s a dog whistle for fear of the lower income, mostly Black and Hispanic areas nearby.

The one constant between these two: None of them live with or understand the communities they are afraid of. If they did, they would realize that the rhetoric about violence and unrest is exaggerated and made up, and they would have empathy for the concerns of folks who are suffering under racial inequality and injustice. Cultural conservatism and racist resentment is all about paranoia, which Trump amplifies in order to win their loyalty and votes.

[Suburbia]

Two types of people respond well to the “law and order” BS:

1. White rural conservatives who don’t live in urban and suburban places. It’s culture war dog whistle for them: “You don’t want your small town (white) to become like Detroit or Baltimore (Black), do you?”

2. White conservatives in segregated suburbs like Long Island and much of the South. It’s a dog whistle for fear of the lower income, mostly Black and Hispanic areas nearby.

The one constant between these two: None of them live with or understand the communities they are afraid of. If they did, they would realize that the rhetoric about violence and unrest is exaggerated and made up, and they would have empathy for the concerns of folks who are suffering under racial inequality and injustice. Cultural conservatism and racist resentment is all about paranoia, which Trump amplifies in order to win their loyalty and votes.

Some of them do. In Hempstead, there is violence. Next door, in Garden City, it is pretty non-violent except for some domestic abuse issues, etc.

https://www.newsday.com/long-island/crime/hempstead-violence-gangs-homicides-1.34563022

[Roronoa D. Law]

The suburbs aren’t what they were 50, or even 15, years ago. Suburbs are getting more diverse, more educated, and more liberal overall. Polling consistently shows college-educated whites, particularly women, moving away from the GOP. I don’t think the law and order dog whistles are going to work. Even if some of these suburban voters want “something done” about the disorder, they certainly don’t think Trump is the man to keep the peace.

I think this is true on the west coast, mid atlantic, new england, and northeast... but not elsewhere - at least not yet. 

 

Err this is arguably most true in places like Gwinnett or fort bend county. Long island burbs are trending right.

The Hamptons and the North Shore are trending Democrats. Which further shows that Democrats are becoming the party of metropolitan elites. The country as a whole may be trending at the same pace. The reason that Democrats look like they are free falling in places like Long Island and NE OH is that working-class whites there remain Democrat a lot longer than there southern counterpart. Vice verse for college-educated whites in the South and Interior West.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I'm noticing a (sexist imo) tendency to mythologize "suburban women" and discuss them as a totum pro parte for a specific kind of casually racist middle-aged wino who's pro-choice and doesn't like seeing coarse language on the news but is also secretly pining for an excuse to go back to voting for Big Republican Daddy to lower her taxes and put the hoodlums back in their place. Of course there are plenty of women like this in middle-class suburbs, and they're some of the worst people in America along with their philistine husbands, but there are also plenty of "suburban women" these days who are downscale, racial (or sexual) minorities, or who've actually become consistently center-left over the past five years once one or a few hot-button issues lured them into Camp Non-Atlas Blue. The Romney-Clinton vote in 2016 and the "burbstomping" in 2018 weren't just the result of the parties' coalitions shifting; they were also a demonstration of how many American suburbs are simply not the same sorts of communities they were in 1968 or even 1988.

I especially don't trust any article that refers to the Iron Range, even the Trump-era Iron Range, as part of a "sea of red" to understand this.

[pbrower2a]

It looks like the GOP is going (at least in part) down the fear, crime, police, safety, etc. road.  How does this play with voters that polling shows are coming back to the Dems - namely, suburban women, upper middle class college educated whites, etc.?  Does it vary by region?

Ask the offenders why they must be such rotten people. It isn't poverty or 'oppression'; there are plenty of good people in the ghettos, barrios, and Reservations. I may have little in common with the so-called tr----- tr---... but I would rather trust some random country-music fan over a Nazi who listened to 'elevated' music such as that of  Beethoven or Bruckner or some mobster who loves operas by Bellini, Verdi, and Puccini.     

[DabbingSanta]

Two types of people respond well to the “law and order” BS:

1. White rural conservatives who don’t live in urban and suburban places. It’s culture war dog whistle for them: “You don’t want your small town (white) to become like Detroit or Baltimore (Black), do you?”

2. White conservatives in segregated suburbs like Long Island and much of the South. It’s a dog whistle for fear of the lower income, mostly Black and Hispanic areas nearby.

The one constant between these two: None of them live with or understand the communities they are afraid of. If they did, they would realize that the rhetoric about violence and unrest is exaggerated and made up, and they would have empathy for the concerns of folks who are suffering under racial inequality and injustice. Cultural conservatism and racist resentment is all about paranoia, which Trump amplifies in order to win their loyalty and votes.

I hate to be that guy, but inner city African American and Latino neighborhoods almost always suffer from high rates of crime, poverty, gang violence, etc. Have you ever personally been in Detroit, or Chicago, or any other majority minority city in America? The homicide rate in Detroit is over 50 per 100K people, similar to drug cartel run countries in Central America.  I'm not racist or fearful of people of color, at all. All I am saying is we need to see the reality that these segregated inner city ghettos are really terrible places to live.  I don't have all the answers for how to improve these places.  Detroit has been gentrifying in recent years by vastly increasing the size and funding of their police force, removing urban blight, improving community services, and building up the downtown area to attract business and tourism.  Hopefully the spike in violence this year (plus covid) doesn't set everything back for them.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Fear & Orders seems to be winning over totally legitimate and very real Democratic voters like these people:
https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1298317618877800448
https://twitter.com/SuaveQ2/status/1298291959556079616
https://twitter.com/WentDemtoRep/status/1297683322017996800
https://twitter.com/eenh00rn/status/1298324204014702593


So the question is, are these Republican Trump fascist twitter bots, or are they Russian twitter bots? Not that there's much of a difference.

[catographer]

Two types of people respond well to the “law and order” BS:

1. White rural conservatives who don’t live in urban and suburban places. It’s culture war dog whistle for them: “You don’t want your small town (white) to become like Detroit or Baltimore (Black), do you?”

2. White conservatives in segregated suburbs like Long Island and much of the South. It’s a dog whistle for fear of the lower income, mostly Black and Hispanic areas nearby.

The one constant between these two: None of them live with or understand the communities they are afraid of. If they did, they would realize that the rhetoric about violence and unrest is exaggerated and made up, and they would have empathy for the concerns of folks who are suffering under racial inequality and injustice. Cultural conservatism and racist resentment is all about paranoia, which Trump amplifies in order to win their loyalty and votes.

I hate to be that guy, but inner city African American and Latino neighborhoods almost always suffer from high rates of crime, poverty, gang violence, etc. Have you ever personally been in Detroit, or Chicago, or any other majority minority city in America? The homicide rate in Detroit is over 50 per 100K people, similar to drug cartel run countries in Central America.  I'm not racist or fearful of people of color, at all. All I am saying is we need to see the reality that these segregated inner city ghettos are really terrible places to live.  I don't have all the answers for how to improve these places.  Detroit has been gentrifying in recent years by vastly increasing the size and funding of their police force, removing urban blight, improving community services, and building up the downtown area to attract business and tourism.  Hopefully the spike in violence this year (plus covid) doesn't set everything back for them.

My point is that the rhetoric about crime and "law and order" is not resonant with people who mostly experience these issues personally. Crime has not risen from 2019-2020 across the board (some cities up, some down), and crime nationally is at 30 year lows. Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

Voters who live in these communities understand that crime and poverty are not partisan issues resulting from Democratic or Republican policies, but instead realities of life in cities that must be dealt with locally. They also understand that racial injustice is a real problem that is not exaggerated, and oppose riots while being sympathetic to their anger. These voters will not be swayed by "law and order rhetoric," because they do not think that it is out of control, and do not blame Democrats for it. "Law and order" rhetoric distracts from real solutions to the problems.

(Also, crime and poverty do not only plague Black and Latino communities, not all Black and Latino urban communities suffer from lots of crime and poverty, and many white communities are plagued by it too. Let's be fair about the scope of the problem.)

[Admiral Stockdale]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.   

[catographer]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.  

Right now all of that is speculation. We don’t have much polling about how voters feel about BLM and protests right now. I think you are right that there’s a chance that white conservatives and moderates  could respond well to these attacks and vote for Trump because they think (wrongly) that Biden wants to defund police and supports riots. I also think that voter opinions are pretty baked-in and static: they believe Trump inflames racial tensions and support BLM’s call for justice. Though I am worried about this just as much as you... I think that rural whites are more susceptible to believing the lies about Biden and Democrats, and also that rural whites who were only tepidly supportive of BLM after George Floyd may change their minds after the summer.

That kinda goes to my point too: white rural voters who don’t live in these suburbs and cities are more likely to turn against BLM and believe lies about Biden and crime than the suburban voters who live there. The rhetoric of the GOP is targeted nominally at suburban voters, but they are wrong imo. The messages are actually persuasive to rural whites.

[Ferguson97]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.   

Democrats are lucky that there's a relatively low number of undecideds.

And I gotta think that anyone who would be persuaded by that messaging has already moved to Trump, or was with him from the beginning.

[catographer]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.  

Democrats are lucky that there's a relatively low number of undecideds.

And I gotta think that anyone who would be persuaded by that messaging has already moved to Trump, or was with him from the beginning.

Agreed completely. Biden’s 8-9 pt lead is cuz there were soft white conservatives who got pissed at his awful response to pandemic and BLM in June. Now that infection spikes and massive marches aren’t in the headlines right now, they’ve reverted back to being skeptical of BLM due to riots and give more benefit of the doubt to Trump on virus. Without these voters, Biden is up 6-7 pts. That’s where I think things will end up: still big lead for Biden, and translates to 300+ EVs.

[Admiral Stockdale]

Instead, it is aimed at voters who subconsciously or not equate crime with Black and Latino people. They are afraid of rising crime and disorder that doesn't exist, and afraid of demographic and cultural change. They also believe that racial injustice is exaggerated, and that Democrats provoke riots by calling out injustices.

This is key point.  And something going on in a small Wisconsin city scares people.  The GOP couldn't have asked for a "better situation" during their convention.  I am in no way minimizing the gentleman who was shot (and any others injured subsequently), but the cold, strategic view of this is great for the Republicans.  The protests and BLM movement was slowly going away from the public eye - and while white support was waning to some extent - the law and order, Biden will defund the police messaging is now front and center.  The fluid undecideds in the rust belt can easily be swayed by the news reports and the RNC messaging.  The hurricanes may be a saving grace for the Dems if they drown out the Wisconsin messaging.  Again... I know this is a terrible thing to say, but I am just trying to assess the situation.  

Democrats are lucky that there's a relatively low number of undecideds.

And I gotta think that anyone who would be persuaded by that messaging has already moved to Trump, or was with him from the beginning.

Agreed completely. Biden’s 8-9 pt lead is cuz there were soft white conservatives who got pissed at his awful response to pandemic and BLM in June. Now that infection spikes and massive marches aren’t in the headlines right now, they’ve reverted back to being skeptical of BLM due to riots and give more benefit of the doubt to Trump on virus. Without these voters, Biden is up 6-7 pts. That’s where I think things will end up: still big lead for Biden, and translates to 300+ EVs.

I think there are some "soft" 2016 Trump -> 2020 Biden voters who can be persuaded to move back, but in general I agree that the low number of undecideds (from an historical perspective) benefits Biden (the leader).

[Beet]

It helps Trump.