Rust Belt Polling 2020 vs. 2018

[ElectionWatcher25]

I find it interesting that Trump is polling better than fellow Republicans in the 2018 midterms. This is most pronounced in the state of Pennsylvania. The only place where this isn't true seems to be Wisconsin Governor, where the state was basically a toss-up. Today, the state looks Lean D based on polling.

I feel like this would be a good discussion topic, especially Pennsylvania. Who are these voters that seem to be backing Trump after voting for Democrats in the 2018 midterms?

FYI: All of this data is from RCP. I used the final RCP averages.

Pennsylvania:

18' Gov Avg: +19.6 (Actual +17.1)
18' Sen Avg: +14.3 (Actual +12.9)
Current Avg: +5.7

Michigan:

18' Gov Avg: +10 (Actual: +8.5)
18' Sen Avg: +8.3 (Actual: +6.4)
Current Avg: +6.7

Wisconsin:

18' Gov: No RCP Avg - But Polling Indicated a Toss-Up (Actual: +1.2)
18' Sen Avg: +10.6 (Actual: +10.
Current Avg: +6.5

[Pericles]

Maybe part of it is that there is a group of voters who support Trump but didn't turn out to vote for Republican candidates in the 2018 midterms.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

In midterms the electorate acts in a less partisan way and therefore the popularity of individual candidates plays a much bigger role. That's why Wolf and Casey did so well in Pennsylvenia, for example.

[Non Swing Voter]

Their voter models might be different.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Wagner was a B or C candidate for Gov and dragged down the whole ticket in PA, he got slaughtered by Wolf and Bob Casey Jr was on the ballot in 18

[LiberalDem19]

I have to think there’s a ton of WWC union voters that hate pretty much every Republican except Trump that won’t turn out for anyone else....