The most realistic map
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Author Topic: The most realistic map  (Read 977 times)
big data boi
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« on: August 12, 2020, 01:11:38 PM »


I had this as my prediction before the 538 model came out with basically the same map. 538 looks like it underestimates 3PV and has some strange PV numbers state-by-state.

Things will tighten somewhat, Biden gets 2016 + PA+ WI +MI + AZ + NE-02. Florida is and will always be a clusterf**k, but tilt Biden. 319-219. Not quite Obama-level, but stronger, bigger, and more tremendous than Trump's puny 306.
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Brandern
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« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2020, 07:53:15 PM »
Don't underestimate the large AA turnout in Georgia. Warnock AND Kamala!

Watch Out...
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here2view
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« Reply #2 on: August 12, 2020, 07:58:11 PM »
This is my exact map too.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #3 on: August 12, 2020, 08:03:34 PM »



Biden - 335

Trump - 203
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Yellowhammer
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« Reply #4 on: August 12, 2020, 10:57:01 PM »
I'm probably going to get some flak for this, but here's mine. And Trump still has lots of room to fall.



Democrats: you can rest easy. There is no chance of Trump being re-elected. None!
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #5 on: August 12, 2020, 11:26:16 PM »
Quote from: Yellowhammer on August 12, 2020, 10:57:01 PM
I'm probably going to get some flak for this, but here's mine. And Trump still has lots of room to fall.

*image snipped*

Democrats: you can rest easy. There is no chance of Trump being re-elected. None!

No Complacency!
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SingingAnalyst
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« Reply #6 on: August 14, 2020, 03:52:55 AM »
I agree, the OP has posted the most realistic map. I'd give it about a 10% chance of occurring, which is paretty high consider how many maps are at least somewhat plausible.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: August 14, 2020, 04:29:38 AM »
NC will vote blue
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Rand
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« Reply #8 on: August 14, 2020, 04:30:16 AM »

Biden is winning 51-49 not by 10 points ya’llz.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #9 on: August 14, 2020, 04:56:51 AM »
Trump is gonna lose anyways, that's why I an emboldened to make my predictions anyway I wish, its gonna be a vlue wave anyways, and Harris has indeed strengthened Biden with Latino and AA voters
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #10 on: August 14, 2020, 05:13:03 AM »
My most realistic map is the 334 friewall.
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Horus
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« Reply #11 on: August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM »
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.
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bagelman
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« Reply #12 on: August 14, 2020, 05:24:48 AM »
Quote from: Yellowhammer on August 12, 2020, 10:57:01 PM
I'm probably going to get some flak for this, but here's mine. And Trump still has lots of room to fall.



Democrats: you can rest easy. There is no chance of Trump being re-elected. None!

Kansas is still a long shot at this point. It's quite possible if Trump falls just a little bit further though.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #13 on: August 14, 2020, 05:52:34 AM »
Quote from: Horus on August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.



A 269-269 tie; the scenario that I fear more than an outright Trump victory.  
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Kleine Scheiße
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« Reply #14 on: August 14, 2020, 05:56:29 AM »
2016+MI+PA+AZ+NE-02

280 Biden
258 Trump
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Pericles
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« Reply #15 on: August 14, 2020, 06:02:22 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 05:52:34 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.



A 269-269 tie; the scenario that I fear more than an outright Trump victory.  

Plausible, but the easiest 269-269 map is Biden winning Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + NE-02. Or did you think about that and decide it's too unoriginal?
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #16 on: August 14, 2020, 06:06:42 AM »
Quote from: President Pericles on August 14, 2020, 06:02:22 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 05:52:34 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.

A 269-269 tie; the scenario that I fear more than an outright Trump victory.  

Plausible, but the easiest 269-269 map is Biden winning Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + NE-02. Or did you think about that and decide it's too unoriginal?

Oh that pic wasn't my map, it was showing a visualization of Horus'.

IMO,  a tie is certainly possible but highly unlikely.  A number of different indicators and trends would have to all go upstream at the same time. 
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Pericles
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« Reply #17 on: August 14, 2020, 06:08:15 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 06:06:42 AM
Quote from: President Pericles on August 14, 2020, 06:02:22 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 05:52:34 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.

A 269-269 tie; the scenario that I fear more than an outright Trump victory.  

Plausible, but the easiest 269-269 map is Biden winning Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + NE-02. Or did you think about that and decide it's too unoriginal?

Oh that pic wasn't my map, it was showing a visualization of Horus'.

IMO,  a tie is certainly possible but highly unlikely.  A number of different indicators and trends would have to all go upstream at the same time. 

Oh damn that's what I get for flicking through Atlas while I'm tired and not properly reading.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #18 on: August 14, 2020, 06:10:04 AM »
Quote from: President Pericles on August 14, 2020, 06:08:15 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 06:06:42 AM
Quote from: President Pericles on August 14, 2020, 06:02:22 AM
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on August 14, 2020, 05:52:34 AM
Quote from: Horus on August 14, 2020, 05:19:36 AM
The most realistic map is 2016 but flip AZ, MN, PA and MI.

A 269-269 tie; the scenario that I fear more than an outright Trump victory.  

Plausible, but the easiest 269-269 map is Biden winning Clinton 2016 + MI + PA + NE-02. Or did you think about that and decide it's too unoriginal?

Oh that pic wasn't my map, it was showing a visualization of Horus'.

IMO,  a tie is certainly possible but highly unlikely.  A number of different indicators and trends would have to all go upstream at the same time.  

Oh damn that's what I get for flicking through Atlas while I'm tired and not properly reading.

Not mad, but VERY disappointed in you, Pericles.  
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: August 14, 2020, 09:30:16 AM »
That map does look very good.

I'd say the big wildcards are Georgia and Ohio. 
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #20 on: August 14, 2020, 09:37:57 AM »

Same.
(With a tiny possibility of NC going to Biden also.)
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #21 on: August 14, 2020, 09:49:44 AM »

This is exactly what I have save for ME-2 to Trump.
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Person Man
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« Reply #22 on: August 14, 2020, 09:51:12 AM »

Trump is barely ahead in Lincoln. He's losing Omaha.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #23 on: August 14, 2020, 09:58:42 AM »

I assume those are small towns somewhere in the north of Maine?
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