TX-24-Dem internal: Biden +5
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Author Topic: TX-24-Dem internal: Biden +5  (Read 582 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: August 06, 2020, 07:06:41 AM »
TX-24: Victoria Research for House Majority PAC (D), July 31-Aug. 2, 400 LV

Biden 49
Trump 44

Trump won 51-43 in 2016.
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Person Man
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:20 AM »
I wonder how district polling looked like in 2016.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 07:10:46 AM »
An R+9 district, Republican Kenny Marchant won here by +2.1 in 2018.  
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 07:43:34 AM »
Oddly, another TX-24 poll is released today!  This one is by RMG Research for US Term Limits (July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV) and has Biden leading 45-44.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TX-24-Toplines-July-2020.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 07:55:42 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 06, 2020, 07:43:34 AM
Oddly, another TX-24 poll is released today!  This one is by RMG Research for US Term Limits (July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV) and has Biden leading 45-44.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TX-24-Toplines-July-2020.pdf

So average out, about 47/44 Biden which is an 11% shift from 2016, which, as we've seen in all of these polls now, means trouble for Trump and a slight Biden lean statewide.
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WD
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 09:48:33 AM »
How did Beto do here?
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Pollster
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 10:04:42 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 06, 2020, 07:43:34 AM
Oddly, another TX-24 poll is released today!  This one is by RMG Research for US Term Limits (July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV) and has Biden leading 45-44.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TX-24-Toplines-July-2020.pdf

Interestingly, the Victoria Research Dem internal is of a likely voter universe, while RMG's is of registered voters. RMG also doesn't seem to push their undecideds, though that matters more the further down the ballot you go.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 11:04:06 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 06, 2020, 07:55:42 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 06, 2020, 07:43:34 AM
Oddly, another TX-24 poll is released today!  This one is by RMG Research for US Term Limits (July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV) and has Biden leading 45-44.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TX-24-Toplines-July-2020.pdf

So average out, about 47/44 Biden which is an 11% shift from 2016, which, as we've seen in all of these polls now, means trouble for Trump and a slight Biden lean statewide.

This is the sort of district that you'd expect to swing by more than the state average, though. If Biden wants to improve by the 9 in Texas he'd need to take the state, he'd want to improve by well more than 11 in TX-24.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 11:05:40 AM »
Quote from: The Mikado on August 06, 2020, 11:04:06 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on August 06, 2020, 07:55:42 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on August 06, 2020, 07:43:34 AM
Oddly, another TX-24 poll is released today!  This one is by RMG Research for US Term Limits (July 27-Aug. 2, 500 RV) and has Biden leading 45-44.

https://www.termlimits.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/TX-24-Toplines-July-2020.pdf

So average out, about 47/44 Biden which is an 11% shift from 2016, which, as we've seen in all of these polls now, means trouble for Trump and a slight Biden lean statewide.

This is the sort of district that you'd expect to swing by more than the state average, though. If Biden wants to improve by the 9 in Texas he'd need to take the state, he'd want to improve by well more than 11 in TX-24.

Isn't that margin even better than Beto though?
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Gracile
gracile
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 04:02:15 PM »

O'Rourke +3.5
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WD
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 04:04:41 PM »

So about 5 points to the left of the state. Consistent with a tied/ Narrow Biden win in TX.
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