CA-04 (Dem internal): Trump +1

[GeorgiaModerate]

CA-04: Lake Research (D internal), July 22-25, 650 LV (change from April)

Trump 46 (-3)
Biden 45 (+2)

Trump won 53-39 in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Most of these house race internals are all showing 10-15% movements to Biden from Hillary's margin in 2016

[kph14]

Most of these house race internals are all showing 10-15% movements to Biden from Hillary's margin in 2016

And the Republicans don't even publish Trump's numbers in their internal polling

[NOVA Green]

Good catch...

Placer County is a place where I would not be surprised to see massive DEM swings in 2020...   (Roseville def on the mind as well as other 'burbs of North Sac...

McClintock only won the district by 54-46 in '18 for CD-04.

MHI runs $69.1k / yr and educational attainment rolling in at 42.9% with a degree > than HS.

Also one of the oldest districts in CA with 12.7% of the Total POP 70+ Yrs (!!!)

60-69 is an additional 13.8% of the Total POP.

50-69 accounts for 15.5% of the Total POP.

Combined numbers = 42% of the TOTAL POPULATION is 50+ Years !!!

Meanwhile 21.3% of the POP is 0-17...

Even with the DEM internal boost and looking at the '18 CA-CD 04 numbers, definitely looking like at min the house race is a toss-up and quite possibly Biden ekes out a Presidential win...

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Good catch...

Placer County is a place where I would not be surprised to see massive DEM swings in 2020...   (Roseville def on the mind as well as other 'burbs of North Sac...

McClintock only won the district by 54-46 in '18 for CD-04.

MHI runs $69.1k / yr and educational attainment rolling in at 42.9% with a degree > than HS.

Also one of the oldest districts in CA with 12.7% of the Total POP 70+ Yrs (!!!)

60-69 is an additional 13.8% of the Total POP.

50-69 accounts for 15.5% of the Total POP.

Combined numbers = 42% of the TOTAL POPULATION is 50+ Years !!!

Meanwhile 21.3% of the POP is 0-17...

Even with the DEM internal boost and looking at the '18 CA-CD 04 numbers, definitely looking like at min the house race is a toss-up and quite possibly Biden ekes out a Presidential win...

Yesterday, in another thread, I said that I think that Trump will still win Placer and El Dorado Counties. Do you agree with that?

[Joe Republic]

I'll take credit for this dramatic swing.

[S019]

If this is anywhere close to true, then Republicans are going to experience disaster up and down the ballot in California, and by disaster, I mean much worse than 2018. Applying a uniform swing across the state, this means a bunch of their Orange County legislative seats are gone, and Nunes, Issa, and of course, McClintock wouldn't be safe on the federal level. But I'm very skeptical of this swing given how this seat is heavily Republican and has little history of voting Democrat and there aren't any good trends here either.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

If this is anywhere close to true, then Republicans are going to experience disaster up and down the ballot in California, and by disaster, I mean much worse than 2018. Applying a uniform swing across the state, this means a bunch of their Orange County legislative seats are gone, and Nunes, Issa, and of course, McClintock wouldn't be safe on the federal level. But I'm very skeptical of this swing given how this seat is heavily Republican and has little history of voting Democrat and there aren't any good trends here either.

Charlie Brown came close to winning back in 2008, but that’s the best result I can find. Wouldn’t be shocking if say Betty Yee won it in 2018 though.

I'll take credit for this dramatic swing.

I’m about 5 miles away from being able to help!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

If this is anywhere close to true, then Republicans are going to experience disaster up and down the ballot in California, and by disaster, I mean much worse than 2018. Applying a uniform swing across the state, this means a bunch of their Orange County legislative seats are gone, and Nunes, Issa, and of course, McClintock wouldn't be safe on the federal level. But I'm very skeptical of this swing given how this seat is heavily Republican and has little history of voting Democrat and there aren't any good trends here either.

Charlie Brown came close to winning back in 2008, but that’s the best result I can find. Wouldn’t be shocking if say Betty Yee won it in 2018 though.

The district looked quite different in 2008. Both start in Roseville & Lake Tahoe, but it now extends southward through the Sierras when it used to extend northward from to Modoc County

I can't find district results for Controller, but Cox won this district 60-40 while McClintock won 54-46

[politicallefty]

I'm familiar with this district. If it's remotely close like this, Trump is losing in a way not seen since 1932. Placer County is sort of to Sacramento what Orange County is to LA, except much whiter. When I think Placer County, I think Roseville. If this kind of suburbia has moved against Trump, he's going down in a landslide.

[ctrepublican512]

I'd love to see how CA-22/Nunes is polling right now

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

I'm familiar with this district. If it's remotely close like this, Trump is losing in a way not seen since 1932. Placer County is sort of to Sacramento what Orange County is to LA, except much whiter. When I think Placer County, I think Roseville. If this kind of suburbia has moved against Trump, he's going down in a landslide.

That’s a really good comparison. I think my view is too focused on Granite Bay and the super rich parts of El Dorado Hills. But as you say, there’s a lot of fairly ordinary suburbs too. It‘lol definitely be something to watch in November.