TX-25 (D Internal): Biden +1

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1287790516399214599?s=20

Biden 47
Trump 46


Williams 45
Oliver 43


Trump +15 in 2016.

[WD]

Trump won this by 15 points in 2016. But tell me again that Texas isn’t a swing state.

[The Ex-Factor]

If TX-25 is that close we should be looking at TX-02, TX-03, TX-06, TX-31, TX-10 too, with Dems likely to win in TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, and TX-24. Could be total carnage, much like Southern California was for Republicans in 2018.

edit: Throw TX-14 and TX-17 into the mix too

[Lief 🗽]

Trump +15, Cruz +5 district. Wow!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Pundits refusing to classify Texas as competitive at this point are in deep denial about the state of the race.

[Gracile]

TX-02, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-24 are gone for the GOP if this is accurate. TX-03, TX-06, and TX-31 would also be pretty competitive.

[Oryxslayer]

General rule of thumb is to add a few points to the opposition when discussing released internals. Even when we do this, Biden still is outrunning Beto's margin by a point or two - enough for a true tossup race statewide.

[wbrocks67]

Yowzers. If the election was today, Biden would probably win TX by 1-2.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

[morgieb]

Internal, but still the fact that they can even get Biden ahead here is pretty remarkable.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

General rule of thumb is to add a few points to the opposition when discussing released internals. Even when we do this, Biden still is outrunning Beto's margin by a point or two - enough for a true tossup race statewide.

Leads me to believe that Beto's 2018 performance was less a Dem ceiling and more a Dem floor.

[Former President tack50]

General rule of thumb is to add a few points to the opposition when discussing released internals. Even when we do this, Biden still is outrunning Beto's margin by a point or two - enough for a true tossup race statewide.

Leads me to believe that Beto's 2018 performance was less a Dem ceiling and more a Dem floor.

2016: Clinton lost by 9 in a D+2 year (TX is R+11)
2018: Beto lost by 3 in a D+8 year (TX is R+11)
2020: Per current polling, Biden is exactly tied with Trump in Texas, but winning by 8 nationally (TX is R+8)

So no, the 2018 performance is definitely not a Dem floor. In the hypothetical scenario where Trump and Biden were tied in the PV nationally, TX would go to Trump by high single digits and be Likely R (comparable to New Mexico in reverse; or even to Oregon actually).

Biden is tied with Trump in TX not because it is trending hard D (it is trending D but it's not like TX is a true swing state yet, it is still a pink state). Biden is tied because he is currently on track to win a landslide.

[ExSky]

Pundits refusing to classify Texas as competitive at this point are in deep denial about the state of the race.

So long as the republicans laugh it off and don’t make a big deal of it, the media won’t latch on. And frankly I don’t think Biden/Dems would want it any other way. They could be waiting for an October blitz which wouldn’t give the GOP any time to react.