Liberal Party USA

[Mr. Illini]

In 2020, Bernie Sanders won the nomination for the Democrats. He goes on in November to defeat Donald Trump. Similar to the GOP under Trump, Democrats largely fall in line with Sanders. Broad progressive reforms are passed and signed.

In 2024, the GOP nominates Tucker Carlson, a Trump-esque figure. He is defeated by Sanders, who wins a second term. The congressional delegations of each major party begin to resemble their leaders, with the GOP embracing right wing populism and the Democrats embracing Bernie's brand of social democracy/democratic socialism.

Come 2028, a new party is launched by centrist former Republican and Democratic insiders (think Bill Kristol, James Carville, etc). It is called the Liberal Party. Similar to the LibDems of the UK, this party is largely centrist, embracing free markets, a reformed safety net, civil and political freedoms, and cultural liberalism. Several remaining center-left and center-right Congresspeople switch parties to join the new party. Former US Presidents Clinton, Bush, and Obama signal support for the party without fully joining or endorsing.

The ticket for the party in 2028 is Charlie Baker/Pete Buttigieg. Because of the high profile congressional switches and general support from important figures in both parties, the party gets a lot of media coverage and is competitive in the polls.

In which states does this ticket do the best? Which congressional districts is the party most likely to pick up?

[Roll Roons]

States: PA, IA, OH, MI, MN, NH, ME, CT, RI, NJ, MD, DE, VA, AZ, KS, IN, FL, possibly IL and WI. Not sure about UT, since they're not fans of Trumpy politics, but this party is liberal on social issues. States that generally tend to be fairly moderate on the whole, even if some do clearly lean towards one party.

Districts: AZ-01, AZ-02, AZ-06, AZ-09, CA-25, CA-39, CA-48, CO-06, CT-04, CT-05, DE-AL, GA-06, GA-07, FL-07, FL-13, FL-15, FL-19, FL-25, FL-26, FL-27, IL-06, IL-08, IL-10, IL-14, IN-05, IA-02, IA-03, KS-03, ME-02, MD-02, MD-06, MI-06, MI-08, MI-11, MN-01, MN-02, MN-03, MO-02, NE-02, NV-03, NV-04, NH-01, NH-02, NJ-03, NJ-05, NJ-07, NJ-11, NY-17, NY-19, NY-22, OH-01, OH-10, OH-12, OH-15, OH-16, PA-01, PA-04, PA-05, PA-06, PA-07, PA-10, PA-17, RI-01, RI-02, SC-01, TX-02, TX-03, TX-07, TX-10, TX-21, TX-22, TX-23, TX-24, TX-32, VA-02, VA-07, VA-10, WI-03, WI-08. In some cases, a new candidate from this party would win, and in others, the incumbent would switch.