Counties Biden wins for first time since at least 1964

[mileslunn]

Any county in which the last Democrat to win in presidential election was 1964 or earlier or one Democrats have never won.

Probably missing a few suburban ones, but two that jump out as obvious are Maricopa County, Arizona, Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Kansas but cannot really think of any others off top off my head.  Delaware County, Ohio another possibility but I still think Trump narrowly wins it but much closer than it usually is.

[SaneDemocrat]

Some in Texas or ga

[DINGO Joe]

Some in Texas or ga

Jimmy Carter eliminates GA.  Haven't looked at TX

[Senator Spark]

You know for all those who believe that I don't think Biden can win.. I have him winning Johnson, KS

[Kuumo]

Some other possibilities are Virginia Beach (VA), Riley (KS), Ada (ID), and Oklahoma (OK).

[Calthrina950]

Any county in which the last Democrat to win in presidential election was 1964 or earlier or one Democrats have never won.

Probably missing a few suburban ones, but two that jump out as obvious are Maricopa County, Arizona, Tarrant County, Texas and Johnson County, Kansas but cannot really think of any others off top off my head.  Delaware County, Ohio another possibility but I still think Trump narrowly wins it but much closer than it usually is.

Woodrow Wilson in 1916 was the last Democrat to win Johnson and Delaware Counties, so a Biden victory in these two counties would be truly extraordinary. Johnson County is all but guaranteed to flip, but not even Sherrod Brown could win Delaware County in 2018, and Biden, if he wins Ohio, will not carry it by the same margin that Brown did. Delaware County could flip if suburban trends to Biden prove especially strong in November, but I'm not certain that it will.

[DINGO Joe]

Also Chesterfield VA

[SNJ1985]

Maybe Frederick, MD?

[jeron]

Seminole

[Alcibiades]

Some possibilities not already mentioned:
Yamhill County and Polk County, OR: Obama very nearly won them, voted for Trump by 7%.
Hamilton County, IN: Would require a big swing, but clearly trending D.
Sarasota County, FL: Obama in 08 lost by 0.1%, voted for Trump by 11%.
Morris County, NJ: The likeliest to flip of the counties listed here. Wealthy suburban county, only voted for Trump by 4%.

Bar Morris, these are all outside chances. The counties which will end their streak in my opinion are Maricopa, Tarrant, Johnson, Riley, Chesterfield, Virginia Beach, Frederick, Oklahoma, Seminole and Morris.

[Ancestral Republican]

I don't think Biden will be flipping many long time R counties. The country will definitely swing blue, but not to a landslide extent. If such counties were already trending democratic, then it's certainly possible.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Collin County is a possibility here.

[mileslunn]

Agree with many suggestions here.  Don't see Biden flipping any long time GOP rural counties so best to look at suburban counties which in much of country are trending blue.  If 1976 instead of 1964 was used would have a some in Georgia as I expect Biden to continue trend in Atlanta metro area of pushing further out.

Orange County was the last holdout of West Coast suburbs and Clinton won that so not much left on West Coast.  Kern County is probably the biggest GOP one left but don't see that flipping. 

In Mountain West, obviously Maricopa County.  Denver suburbs already voting Democrat while Salt Lake City suburbs too strongly GOP to realistically flip.

In Midwest, Johnson County, Kansas obvious one.  Most of the other major metro areas have either gone Democrat since 2008 or in 90s.  Indianapolis and Columbus suburbs maybe trending blue but still have large rural components thus Hamilton County, Indiana and Delaware County, Ohio could conceivably going Democrat in the future but 2020 probably too soon.  Milwaukee and Cincinnati suburbs too heavily GOP too realistically flip. 

Northeast: Pretty much every suburban county has voted Democrat at least once this century.  Frederick County, Maryland which is more exurban probably notable exception.

South: Texas and Virginia obviously where you would have gains.  DC suburbs already Democrat but seems Richmond and Norfolk swinging too just not quite as quickly as DC.  Seminole County, Florida another, sort of a decade behind Osceola County which used to be reliably GOP but now reliably Democrat.

[Orser67]

Riley County, KS would be a good one since it's never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate (since KS became a state in 1861). It only went for Trump by 3.5 points in 2016, though it had a huge third party vote.

[Hope For A New Era]

Riley County, KS would be a good one since it's never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate (since KS became a state in 1861). It only went for Trump by 3.5 points in 2016, though it had a huge third party vote.

Third parties pulled mostly from Democrats in 2016.


I’m not so sure about Ada in Idaho. It’s possible, but Idaho is just really, really Republican.

[mileslunn]

Riley County, KS would be a good one since it's never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate (since KS became a state in 1861). It only went for Trump by 3.5 points in 2016, though it had a huge third party vote.

Third parties pulled mostly from Democrats in 2016.


I’m not so sure about Ada in Idaho. It’s possible, but Idaho is just really, really Republican.

Ada County is Boise which is largest city in state and most of state is fairly rural.  Also state capitol so more civil servants and those with college degrees.  State capitals for the most part tend to vote Democrat.  There are a few exceptions but usually more Democrat than state.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Riley County, KS would be a good one since it's never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate (since KS became a state in 1861). It only went for Trump by 3.5 points in 2016, though it had a huge third party vote.

Third parties pulled mostly from Democrats in 2016.


I’m not so sure about Ada in Idaho. It’s possible, but Idaho is just really, really Republican.

Ada County is Boise which is largest city in state and most of state is fairly rural.  Also state capitol so more civil servants and those with college degrees.  State capitals for the most part tend to vote Democrat.  There are a few exceptions but usually more Democrat than state.

There's also the fact that Idaho and especially the Boise area is growing rapidly. That same volatility in population growth caused Harris to flip and will likely cause Maricopa to flip this year. 

[Calthrina950]

Riley County, KS would be a good one since it's never voted for a Democratic presidential candidate (since KS became a state in 1861). It only went for Trump by 3.5 points in 2016, though it had a huge third party vote.

Third parties pulled mostly from Democrats in 2016.


I’m not so sure about Ada in Idaho. It’s possible, but Idaho is just really, really Republican.

Ada County is Boise which is largest city in state and most of state is fairly rural.  Also state capitol so more civil servants and those with college degrees.  State capitals for the most part tend to vote Democrat.  There are a few exceptions but usually more Democrat than state.

There's also the fact that Idaho and especially the Boise area is growing rapidly. That same volatility in population growth caused Harris to flip and will likely cause Maricopa to flip this year. 

Trump only got a plurality in Ada County in 2016, and Paulette Jordan won a narrow plurality there against Brad Little in the 2018 gubernatorial election. So there's a possibility that Biden might flip it, and if he does, he would become the first Democrat since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936 to carry it.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

I wondered about Utah and started looking around there. Suffice it to say it will not be Utah County, Utah. I didn’t realize how Republican Mormons are until I looked there, but Obama pulled a whopping 9.7% of the vote in 2012. Hillary managed to increase the Democratic share to 14.0% in 2016.

[The Mikado]

I wondered about Utah and started looking around there. Suffice it to say it will not be Utah County, Utah. I didn’t realize how Republican Mormons are until I looked there, but Obama pulled a whopping 9.7% of the vote in 2012. Hillary managed to increase the Democratic share to 14.0% in 2016.

Provo, Utah might be the most reactionary city in America. I'm not even saying that in a negative or derogatory way, it's literally true as a description.

[pppolitics]

No Democratic presidential candidate has won Maricopa County, AZ since 1948.

[mileslunn]

Yuma County, Arizona was also close and could flip largely due to growing Latino population as it is now majority Hispanic.