Trump falls below 40% again in 538 tracker

[wbrocks67]

Approval now -16.0, lowest it's been in a very long time.

39.9% approve
55.9% disapprove

What happened to the supposed bump Trump was supposed to get as the race "tightens" with 99 days to go? (not saying it can't or won't happen, but everyone keeps saying there's going to be this miraculous tightening that never materializes)

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[roxas11]

Well its kind of silly to think that this race will "tighten" when trump is still hitting new lows in polls for his handling on coronavirus. his polls numbers are currently still collapsing so the idea that that race is going to tighten right now is ridiculous

[Ferguson97]

Is this the mask bump or the goya bump?

[Alben Barkley]

Well its kind of silly to think that this race will "tighten" when trump is still hitting new lows in polls for his handling on coronavirus. his polls numbers are currently still collapsing so the idea that that race is going to tighten right now is ridiculous

Explain why you are so certain Trump will stop "collapsing" and hitting "new lows." There is no sign that the downward trend will cease as of now, and no logical reason to believe it must turn around. Fact is not every election tightens in the closing stretch; sometimes leads expand or they stay relatively static. And fact is things are not getting better for Trump and there are few signs they will by November. So again, WHY do you believe this is the floor AND it's safe to assume things will improve significantly for him? As far as I can tell any such belief must be entirely rooted in feelings and faith. Not facts.

[ultraviolet]

Well its kind of silly to think that this race will "tighten" when trump is still hitting new lows in polls for his handling on coronavirus. his polls numbers are currently still collapsing so the idea that that race is going to tighten right now is ridiculous

Explain why you are so certain Trump will stop "collapsing" and hitting "new lows." There is no sign that the downward trend will cease as of now, and no logical reason to believe it must turn around. Fact is not every election tightens in the closing stretch; sometimes leads expand or they stay relatively static. And fact is things are not getting better for Trump and there are few signs they will by November. So again, WHY do you believe this is the floor AND it's safe to assume things will improve significantly for him? As far as I can tell any such belief must be entirely rooted in feelings and faith. Not facts.

Are you ok buddy

[Alben Barkley]

Well its kind of silly to think that this race will "tighten" when trump is still hitting new lows in polls for his handling on coronavirus. his polls numbers are currently still collapsing so the idea that that race is going to tighten right now is ridiculous

Explain why you are so certain Trump will stop "collapsing" and hitting "new lows." There is no sign that the downward trend will cease as of now, and no logical reason to believe it must turn around. Fact is not every election tightens in the closing stretch; sometimes leads expand or they stay relatively static. And fact is things are not getting better for Trump and there are few signs they will by November. So again, WHY do you believe this is the floor AND it's safe to assume things will improve significantly for him? As far as I can tell any such belief must be entirely rooted in feelings and faith. Not facts.

Are you ok buddy

I'm absolutely OK. I just don't have a particularly high tolerance for BS claims made without evidence.

[soundchaser]

I'm absolutely OK. I just don't have a particularly high tolerance for BS claims made without evidence.

Carefully reread the post you’re arguing against.

[MikeIrvine]

I feel like the Biden +8 to +10 we are seeing holds. If Trump narrows it, I can't see it getting tighter than Biden +6 at this point.

Also, I saw early voting got extended in my state of TX. So there's something

[Landslide Lyndon]

I love how this happens the day Sean Trende and Nate Silver where arguing that Trump can make the race competitive again if the COVID situation improves in the fall. As if Trump (and the enabling governors) has any idea what the heck he is doing or the 150+ thousand deaths are going to be swept under the rug.
Not to mention that Trump's numbers took the biggest hit during a period when the pandemic was receding (late May, early June).

[WD]

I love how this happens the day Sean Trende and Nate Silver where arguing that Trump can make the race competitive again if the COVID situation improves in the fall. As if Trump (and the enabling governors) has any idea what the heck he is doing or the 150+ thousand deaths are going to be swept under the rug.
Not to mention that Trump's numbers took the biggest hit during a period when the pandemic was receding (late May, early June).

They desperately want a close election, it’s what they live for. A 2000 redux is their wet dream.

[Old Man Willow]

Trump seems incapable of seizing the narrative.

[Hope For A New Era]

Finally! Took it long enough. Great to see. Keep the slide going!

[Ogre Mage]

An incumbent president's job approval ratings have historically tracked closely to the incumbent's reelection results.  In fact it is probably the single best measure of an incumbent president's reelection chances.  A president might be able to outperform his or her approval rating in the election by a couple points, but no more.

If Trumpvirus approvals are still at 40% at the beginning of November he has no chance for reelection.  Even in an optimistic scenario where he outperformed his job approvals by a few points (42-43%) that would not be enough.  

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, Covid 19 and students not returning to school is hurting him.

Ds sweep all the Senate races except for AL and Ky 57/43 Senate would be in the realm of a 14 victory

[NYSforKennedy2024]

Trump seems incapable of seizing the narrative.