AP/NORC: Biden +12

[wbrocks67]

A ridiculous amount of undecideds, but margin lines up with what we've seen elsewhere

Biden 46
Trump 34

https://apnorc.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/topline_final.pdf

[Granite City]

Undecideds are likely due to it being a poll of Adults rather than RVs or LVs.

A good number for Biden but I wouldn't give it much weight - why even release it without a RV topline though?

[woodley park]

That looks like a collapse for Trump, but it is also concerning to see Biden well below 50 percent.

[ON Progressive]

That looks like a collapse for Trump, but it is also concerning to see Biden well below 50 percent.

The thing is that candidates who are up by double digits but still below 50 win virtually every time. This article a couple years ago (albeit on Senate candidates) goes into this: https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/16/politics/poll-of-the-week-pa-senate-democrat/index.html

[roxas11]

That looks like a collapse for Trump, but it is also concerning to see Biden well below 50 percent.

Historically being well below 50 percent as far worse news for Trump than it is for Joe Biden
No sitting president in modern history who was well below 50 percent has ever gone on to be reelected

the last two president who failed to get at least 50 percent approval by election day was George H. W. Bush and Jimmy Carter

come November it simply will not matter if Biden is at 50 or not
If trump is below 50 percent on election day...........Its Game over and Biden will be our next president

[Landslide Lyndon]

Believe it or not, their previous poll had even more undecideds. At the beginning of June they had Biden leading 40-32.

[Person Man]

Believe it or not, their previous poll had even more undecideds. At the beginning of June they had Biden leading 40-32.

I guess there's a third less people who have an opinion but if you are counted as "undecided" does that mean you are still likely to vote?

Where are elections mostly won? Getting undecided people to vote for you? Getting people to change their minds? Just making sure who people who want to vote for you do?

[BobbieMac]

They really should be discounting "would not vote" and "refused" because these aren't included in the actual final result totals.

Doing this makes:

Biden 51 (46 + 5 Lean)
Trump 38 (34 + 4 Lean)
Other 11

[redjohn]

They really should be discounting "would not vote" and "refused" because these aren't included in the actual final result totals.

Doing this makes:

Biden 51 (46 + 5 Lean)
Trump 38 (34 + 4 Lean)
Other 11

Trump's "34 + 4 lean" number is probably his floor.