Did Trump do better with Florida Cubans than Bush 04'?

[Woody]

Title

[GregTheGreat657]

Probably, Trump only underperformed Bush '04 by one point in Miami-Dade, and now there are more northern transplants living there than in 2004.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably not

[Joe McCarthy Was Right]

Probably not

Who would he have done better with then? The non-Hispanic white population in Miami-Dade would have dropped about 7% since then.

[TDAS04]

Probably not

Who would he have done better with then? The non-Hispanic white population in Miami-Dade would have dropped about 7% since then.

I’m guessing that there was a spike in the size of the Venezuelan-American community between 2004 and 2020.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Probably not

Who would he have done better with then? The non-Hispanic white population in Miami-Dade would have dropped about 7% since then.

Looking at precinct data, it would actually appear that Trump improved among Black voters in the County.

[perpetual_cynic]

Probably not

Who would he have done better with then? The non-Hispanic white population in Miami-Dade would have dropped about 7% since then.

I’m guessing that there was a spike in the size of the Venezuelan-American community between 2004 and 2020.

According to the US Census Bureau (2000 Census), Miami Dade was:
29% Cuban 650,601
21% White
20% Black
3% Colombian 70,066
3% Nicaraguan 69,257
1% Venezuelan 21,593
And in 2019:
36% Cuban 986,926
18% White
15% Black
5% Colombian 139,104
4% Nicaraguan 116,948
4% Venezuelan 105,625

Cubans up 7%, Colombians up 2%, Nicaraguans up 1%, Venezuelans up 3%, Non-Hispanic Whites down 3%, Non-Hispanic Blacks down 5%. The vast majority of numerical growth from 2000->2019 was from Cubans and grew more than these other Hispanic groups combined (by %).

[perpetual_cynic]

Probably not

Who would he have done better with then? The non-Hispanic white population in Miami-Dade would have dropped about 7% since then.

Looking at precinct data, it would actually appear that Trump improved among Black voters in the County.

That's not surprising. There weren't hardly any overwhelmingly-black precincts anywhere in the entire country where Biden did better than Clinton. A few rural counties in Louisiana and Georgia, and that's about all I have seen.

[perpetual_cynic]

Title

It seems quite likely that it was so close it might be hard to tell. Trump did better with black voters than Bush, I think and probably did worse with white voters than Bush, but the white population % has declined.