NJ-02 (DCCC): Trump +1

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1280677530689843200

Trump - 46
Biden - 45

Trump won this South Jersey district 52-46 51-46 in 2016.

[Bidenworth2020]

A bit dissapointing considering it's an internal.

[Devils30]

This one is going to trend sharply R relative to the country.

[BudgieForce]

I think Biden can win here and drag Kennedy with him. And it's in the Philadelphia media market so he's going to have to spend here anyway.

[lfromnj]

This one is going to trend sharply R relative to the country.

Tbh this district didn't even trend that far right, just look at the 08 to 16 trend(DO NOT LOOK at 2012 numbers here)

+8 obama to +4 Trump is only like a 6.5 point R trend.

[Horus]

Didn't New Jersey Republicans pick up a state senate and assembly district here last year? I'll be surprised if Van Drew loses, this is a reasonably wwc district and will likely trend Trump.

[Annatar]

https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1280677530689843200

Trump - 46
Biden - 45

Trump won this South Jersey district 52-46 in 2016.

He didn't win it 52-46, he won it 50.6-46, by 4.6%.

[Gracile]

Didn't New Jersey Republicans pick up a state senate and assembly district here last year? I'll be surprised if Van Drew loses, this is a reasonably wwc district and will likely trend Trump.

Yes, Van Drew's old seat, in fact.

I agree that this seems like the type of district that would trend R even if Biden improves substantially on Clinton's numbers nationwide.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

This one is going to trend sharply R relative to the country.

Tbh this district didn't even trend that far right, just look at the 08 to 16 trend(DO NOT LOOK at 2012 numbers here)

+8 obama to +4 Trump is only like a 6.5 point R trend.

Still pretty in line with other wwc seats.

[BlueSwan]

https://twitter.com/coleleiter/status/1280677530689843200

Trump - 46
Biden - 45

Trump won this South Jersey district 52-46 51-46 in 2016.

I honestly don't get why people bother doing polls with such small samples. MoE of 5% means that this race could be anywhere from Trump +11 (51-40) to Biden +9 (41-50) within the 95% confidence interval. That is almost useless.

[YE]

This is pretty disappointing given such a favorable climate. This area shouldn't really that different from the areas that are at least showing some signs of snapping back (ie Driftless or upstate NY) at least in the current environment.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This district kind of wracks my brain. I think it's a lot more complicated than it's often made out to be.

There is a lot to consider when trying to figure out its political tendencies. For instance, back in 2018 Van Drew won as a Democrat but at a considerably smaller than expected margin. Could that have been because he is just such an institution for parts of the district as a State Senator and had little to do with party? Could a better opponent have defeated him? Did Menendez's absolutely abysmal performance here drag him down?

And then when it comes to how Republicans picked up two Assembly seats and Van Drew's old Senate seat in legislative districts within this congressional district was that because of it truly trending right? Could it have been a rebuke of Governor Murphy? Or was all this just because it was one of many off-year New Jersey elections with absolutely paltry turnout?

I really don't know with this district, but in spite of all that Trump+1 here honestly doesn't sound that bad to me. I don't even care if Trump wins the district, I just want Van Drew's cowardly ass gone, but I imagine that Van Drew will sadly over-perform Trump.

[Pollster]

For instance, back in 2018 Van Drew won as a Democrat but at a considerably smaller than expected margin. Could that have been because he is just such an institution for parts of the district as a State Senator and had little to do with party? Could a better opponent have defeated him? Did Menendez's absolutely abysmal performance here drag him down?

Expectations for Van Drew in 2018 were always overblown. A district that gave Obama only 53% of the vote in 2008 of all years and has trended R since was never going to be a landslide for Dems, even with a shoddy GOP candidate. He won an R+1 seat by 8 points in a D+8 year, so if anything he modestly outperformed the national average. And he did it as Menendez was losing the district by double digits the same night, as you mention. If anything, it's a low ceiling/low floor district for Dems.

Also important to remember that this is a district with a large number of non-evangelical white voters, making it incredibly elastic and prone to swings.

[Progressive Pessimist]

For instance, back in 2018 Van Drew won as a Democrat but at a considerably smaller than expected margin. Could that have been because he is just such an institution for parts of the district as a State Senator and had little to do with party? Could a better opponent have defeated him? Did Menendez's absolutely abysmal performance here drag him down?

Expectations for Van Drew in 2018 were always overblown. A district that gave Obama only 53% of the vote in 2008 of all years and has trended R since was never going to be a landslide for Dems, even with a shoddy GOP candidate. He won an R+1 seat by 8 points in a D+8 year, so if anything he modestly outperformed the national average. And he did it as Menendez was losing the district by double digits the same night, as you mention. If anything, it's a low ceiling/low floor district for Dems.

Also important to remember that this is a district with a large number of non-evangelical white voters, making it incredibly elastic and prone to swings.

That's a fairly good distillation of this district.

I do think that Van Drew put himself in a pretty good position to get re-elected though considering that. He can claim to be a loyal Trump Republican to win over the Trump supporters in the district, who only care about that even if he was elected as a Democrat, while possibly not alienating too many moderates or undecided voters since he still simultaneously also has his 80%+ record of voting with Democrats. If voters can get past how craven his party switching was, it may actually have been in his best yet also most selfish interests to do what he did. Ideally voters in his district would recognize the cowardice and cynicism. At the very least though, if he gets re-elected, I would hope that it's at least by an even narrower margin than last time. It's a small consolation.

[Tintrlvr]

Didn't New Jersey Republicans pick up a state senate and assembly district here last year? I'll be surprised if Van Drew loses, this is a reasonably wwc district and will likely trend Trump.

Yes, Van Drew's old seat, in fact.

I agree that this seems like the type of district that would trend R even if Biden improves substantially on Clinton's numbers nationwide.

Van Drew's old state legislative seat was a solid R seat that was held by the state Democrats out of sheer force of will, though. I believe it was a Bush-Bush-McCain-Romney-Trump seat, and only particularly close in 2008.

[Gracile]

Didn't New Jersey Republicans pick up a state senate and assembly district here last year? I'll be surprised if Van Drew loses, this is a reasonably wwc district and will likely trend Trump.

Yes, Van Drew's old seat, in fact.

I agree that this seems like the type of district that would trend R even if Biden improves substantially on Clinton's numbers nationwide.

Van Drew's old state legislative seat was a solid R seat that was held by the state Democrats out of sheer force of will, though. I believe it was a Bush-Bush-McCain-Romney-Trump seat, and only particularly close in 2008.

Obama won it in 2012 (not sure about 2008, though) and so did Menendez that year, too. Other than that, it has given Republicans pretty solid margins there (like Christie). Still, at the legislative level, it was relatively D-leaning through much of the late 2000s and 2010s - with the state senate and assembly spots flipping only last year. So all-in-all, a pretty mixed partisan history.