Another clash on the Kyrgyz-Tajik border

[PSOL]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/guards-clash-again-kyrgyz-tajik-border-no-casualties-reported-2022-01-27/

Kyrgyz and Tajik border guards exchanged fire on Thursday amid a standoff over a blocked road, in the latest clash between the former Soviet neighbours following a similar violent incident last year that killed dozens.

Water wars have begun.

[CumbrianLefty]

"The border is poorly demarcated" - now why does that not surprise.

[Agonized-Statism]

It's tragic what's happened to Central Asia. Hoping for peace.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is in the Fergana Valley, right? My impression is that that's both the only part of either country worth fighting a resource war over and where most of the Tajik and Uzbek enclaves in Kyrgyzstan are.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's tragic what's happened to Central Asia. Hoping for peace.

The fall of the Soviet Union really screwed over central Asian resource management. The region has been left to deal with the consequences.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It's tragic what's happened to Central Asia. Hoping for peace.

The fall of the Soviet Union really screwed over central Asian resource management. The region has been left to deal with the consequences.

It's not like the Soviets had a great track record with Central Asian water themselves, of course.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's tragic what's happened to Central Asia. Hoping for peace.

The fall of the Soviet Union really screwed over central Asian resource management. The region has been left to deal with the consequences.

It's not like the Soviets had a great track record with Central Asian water themselves, of course.

Yes, that is also true.

[PSOL]

Mark my words, there’s going to be a huge conflict in Central Asia in the next decade or so.

[It’s so Joever]

Mark my words, there’s going to be a huge conflict in Central Asia in the next decade or so.

Tbf that’s not that bold of a prediction at this rate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mark my words, there’s going to be a huge conflict in Central Asia in the next decade or so.

Tbf that’s not that bold of a prediction at this rate.

If Russia is too weak to have a hand in Central Asia, there's basically nothing keeping Uzbekistan from throwing its weight around on Kyrgyzstan and other players.

[It’s so Joever]

As long as based Turkmenistan survives (which they will because they will stay neutral and aren’t that close to the area contested) I don’t care.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Mark my words, there’s going to be a huge conflict in Central Asia in the next decade or so.

Tbf that’s not that bold of a prediction at this rate.

If Russia is too weak to have a hand in Central Asia, there's basically nothing keeping Uzbekistan from throwing its weight around on Kyrgyzstan and other players.

A small border conflict would be one thing, but a full-blown invasion could trigger an international response from CSTO (the Eurasian Warsaw Pact). On balance, I think that’d be unlikely, but Uzbekistan would have to consider this risk carefully.

The Uzbeks left that organisation in 1999, along with Azerbaijan and Georgia. The current members besides Russia are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Armenia is pretty desperate to make it work, which is why they sent mine clearance teams to Syria at Russia’s request (although no other CSTO state answered that call). They would not be alone if Uzbekistan got more aggressive.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Mark my words, there’s going to be a huge conflict in Central Asia in the next decade or so.

Tbf that’s not that bold of a prediction at this rate.

If Russia is too weak to have a hand in Central Asia, there's basically nothing keeping Uzbekistan from throwing its weight around on Kyrgyzstan and other players.

A small border conflict would be one thing, but a full-blown invasion could trigger an international response from CSTO (the Eurasian Warsaw Pact). On balance, I think that’d be unlikely, but Uzbekistan would have to consider this risk carefully.

The Uzbeks left that organisation in 1999, along with Azerbaijan and Georgia. The current members besides Russia are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

Armenia is pretty desperate to make it work, which is why they sent mine clearance teams to Syria at Russia’s request (although no other CSTO state answered that call). They would not be alone if Uzbekistan got more aggressive.

Interesting.
I completely forgot about the CSTO. Thanks for correcting me!