The many possible tie combinations.

[khirkhib]

It is disturbing the number of viable different EV combos. There are many combinations and if one toss-up state goes one way and another toss up state goes another way we could easily end up with a 269-269 tie.  I don't think the American public would readily except congress reanointing Bush President because of the nefarious way the Supreme Court did it last time.  My personal polictis asside though.  What is the most likely EV tie? If not one of these than what do you think would be the tie.  Note Option 8 was a tie scenario that was listed in the user prediction page to be fair to that member I thought I should list it as well though I think it is the least likely of the combos.

[Mort from NewYawk]

Scenario 1 is the most plausible - the Dems just gain NH and NV, two states that could flip, even in a tight race.

Of course, that means that they would also have to hang on to PA, WS, IA, NM, and OR - also plausible.

If Bush could win Iowa (maybe the most vulnerable to a GOP flip?) while holding Ohio, it would help him to avoid some of these tie scenarios.

[JohnFKennedy]

I voted for the 2nd, although the 1st is also likely.

[elcorazon]

I voted for the 3rd.  I think Ohio and NH will go Kerry this year.  I also think Wisconsin is a tossup that Bush could easily take.  There are MANY other plausible scenarios not listed, especially if you think Arizona is in play, as I do.  Oregon could also go for Bush, which adds more tie scenarios.  Of course there are MANY more plausible close non-tie scenarios than tie scenarios, but what fun are they?

[Smash255]

I voted for the 3rd.  I think Ohio and NH will go Kerry this year.  I also think Wisconsin is a tossup that Bush could easily take.  There are MANY other plausible scenarios not listed, especially if you think Arizona is in play, as I do.  Oregon could also go for Bush, which adds more tie scenarios.  Of course there are MANY more plausible close non-tie scenarios than tie scenarios, but what fun are they?

I highly doubt Wisc will go for Bush if it remains tight.  When you look at all the polls Kerry is safely ahead in every Wisconsin poll excet for the infamous Badger polls.  Badger does have Bush ahead, but they also had Bush ahead by double digits in the state going into the 2000 election

[© tweed]

2nd choice.

[opebo]

Second choice for me too, but I think its exceedingly unlikely.  Bush will win fairly decisively in the electoral college.

[struct310]

How about one with an oregon tie?

[ilikeverin]

I voted for the 2nd, although the 1st is also likely.