Prediction: Most of the Evangelicals will not vote for Trump 2020

[2016]

His support among the Christian Right & Evangelicals will be severely diminished in 2020!

Discuss!

[SaneDemocrat]

NO. It will diminish most with Mainline and Catholic WHites

[pppolitics]

Evangelicals are the biggest hypocrites and will vote overwhelmingly for Trump.

[ProudModerate2]

Evangelicals are the biggest hypocrites and will vote overwhelmingly for Trump.

[Podgy the Bear]

NO. It will diminish most with Mainline and Catholic WHites

[Inmate Trump]

I highly doubt they'll abandon him.

But if they did, it would be so much fun to watch the GOP scramble and quickly distance themselves from everything with Trump's name on it.

All their current talking points would be trashed and new ones brought in.  It'd be a show.

[2016]

I highly doubt they'll abandon him.

But if they did, it would be so much fun to watch the GOP scramble and quickly distance themselves from everything with Trump's name on it.

All their current talking points would be trashed and new ones brought in.  It'd be a show.

They will do that anyways!

It will be a great fun to watch though Democrats SQIRM in 2022 and 2024.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

In this time period even Evangelicals particularly in blue states like in 2008-12 are more supportive of Ds, as well as Catholics since they deal with Catholic Charities and Urban Poverty.

Archdiocese and the Pope was the one to tell Boehner to retire and let Paul Ryan be Speaker, but Ryan did the same thing as Boehner, repeal Obamacare.

[2016]

In this time period even Evangelicals particularly in blue states like in 2008-12 are more supportive of Ds, as well as Catholics since they deal with Catholic Charities and Urban Poverty.

Archdiocese and the Pope was the one to tell Boehner to retire and let Paul Ryan be Speaker, but Ryan did the same thing as Boehner, repeal Obamacare.

That's because Trump is a fake Christian.

The Christian Right & Evangelicals abandoned Cruz and Rubio for Trump during the 2016 Primaries which was really strange to see.

[Galeel]

If Evangelicals abandon Trump then Biden will win a 1984 style landslide, not gonna happen.

[Hope For A New Era]

The evangelicals won't abandon him, his other voters will. The evangelicals will justify voting for him with the indestructible argument that is "MUH COURTS." The hypocrisy is unbelievable.

[2016]

If Evangelicals abandon Trump then Biden will win a 1984 style landslide, not gonna happen.

It might not be 1984 but it could be a 1988 style landslide. Don't be too sure of that Evangelicals won't abandon Trump. I've friends in my neighbourhood and they told me Trump holding that Bible a couple of Mondays ago was quote "The last Straw for them".

Trump isn't a Evangelical born-again Christian like Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio would have been and folks could relate to. That guy is FAKE and everyone in the Christian Community knows it.

[MarkD]

I can't see how they abandon him. The propect of Trump replacing Ruth Bader GInsburg and Stephen Breyer is too appetizing and looms too large.

[MT Treasurer]

They almost certainly won’t abandon him en masse, but a slight/modest drop-off in Evangelical turnout + support is a very likely outcome and would have some pretty devastating electoral implications for the GOP.

[SingingAnalyst]

The highly politicized white Evangelicals will not abandon Trump. Less politically minded ones may abandon him at about the same rate as the population as the whole.

In 2016, white Evangelicals went 81-16-2 for Trump-Clinton-Johnson (CNN). Any information on white Evangelicals in 2020?

Incidentally, I would like, just once, to see a poll of all Evangelicals, not just white ones. Last major exit poll of all Evangelicals ("born-again Christians") was in 1984, Time Magazine, that had Reagan winning this group, 69-31.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Evangelicals with a college degree will waver somewhat - bad news for Trump in suburbia - but otherwise, they will stay with him.

"Evangelical" is no longer a religion. It's an identity, and part of that identity is supporting Republicans no matter what.

[SingingAnalyst]

Evangelicals with a college degree will waver somewhat - bad news for Trump in suburbia - but otherwise, they will stay with him.

"Evangelical" is no longer religion. It's an identity, and part of that identity is supporting Republicans no matter what.

Sad and scary and, unfortunately, largely true.

And to think that a 1980 poll found "Carter clear favorite with Evangelicals", which had Andy Rooney wondering if people who were born again get to vote twice.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Evangelicals with a college degree will waver somewhat - bad news for Trump in suburbia - but otherwise, they will stay with him.

"Evangelical" is no longer religion. It's an identity, and part of that identity is supporting Republicans no matter what.

Sad and scary and, unfortunately, largely true.

And to think that a 1980 poll found "Carter clear favorite with Evangelicals", which had Andy Rooney wondering if people who were born again get to vote twice.

Not that we can ever peer inside their brains to be sure, but Carter and W appear to be the only true Born Again Christians ever to occupy the White House. So it makes sense that Evangelicals supported Carter. But 1980 represented the beginning of the true, consolidated religious right, and the idea that Republicans somehow were the embodiment of Christian values because abortion.

[Hope For A New Era]

The evangelicals won't abandon him, his other voters will. The evangelicals will justify voting for him with the indestructible argument that is "MUH COURTS." The hypocrisy is unbelievable.

Update, June 15: Perhaps I spoke too soon regarding the courts!

[2016]

Trump down 11 in Florida suggests that Evangelicals do have abandoned him there. You're not down 11 Points there without the support of the Christian Right cratering.

[ProudModerate2]

'Distressing': Reverend reveals what evangelicals say privately about Trump.

Reverend Rob Schenck, a former evangelical activist, discusses President Trump's photo-op after police forcibly moved protesters and what evangelicals are now saying about Trump.

https://us.cnn.com/videos/politics/2020/06/16/evangelicals-trump-rob-schenck-amanpour-vpx.cnn

Here is an interesting take regarding Evangelicals from a Revered.
Click link above to watch video (about 6 minutes long).

[BlueSwan]

I hope you are right, but I just don't see it. Evangelicals largely seem to be the most hardcore Trump supporters of them all. I don't see how they can abandon their savior now if they were fine with everything up until now.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Evangelicals with a college degree will waver somewhat - bad news for Trump in suburbia - but otherwise, they will stay with him.

This may be somewhat true.  FOX's voter analysis broke the white evangelical vote (in 2018) out between college educated and not college educated and found almost no gap:

College-educated white evangelicals: 80% Republican
Non-college-educated white evangelicals: 81% Republican

It wouldn't surprise me if college-educated white evangelicals only vote something like 75-20 for Trump, but most of the drop off would probably be in favor of protest votes than in favor of Biden.  The biggest defections will probably be in young female white evangelicals with a college degree.  Trump will probably win that (super specific) demographic, but by a super underwhelming margin.

My church group is all college-educated white evangelicals aged 22-30 (mix of guys and girls), so I'm kind of using it as a barometer for how things might go with that demographic.  I don't think that anyone has outright said that they are voting for Biden or anything, but there still feels like there may be a general uneasiness with Trump (I haven't polled the group or asked anyone who isn't super vocal about it who they are voting for, so that's just my general impression).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Evangelicals with a college degree will waver somewhat - bad news for Trump in suburbia - but otherwise, they will stay with him.

This may be somewhat true.  FOX's voter analysis broke the white evangelical vote (in 2018) out between college educated and not college educated and found almost no gap:

College-educated white evangelicals: 80% Republican
Non-college-educated white evangelicals: 81% Republican

It wouldn't surprise me if college-educated white evangelicals only vote something like 75-20 for Trump, but most of the drop off would probably be in favor of protest votes than in favor of Biden.  The biggest defections will probably be in young female white evangelicals with a college degree.  Trump will probably win that (super specific) demographic, but by a super underwhelming margin.

My church group is all college-educated white evangelicals aged 22-30 (mix of guys and girls), so I'm kind of using it as a barometer for how things might go with that demographic.  I don't think that anyone has outright said that they are voting for Biden or anything, but there still feels like there may be a general uneasiness with Trump (I haven't polled the group or asked anyone who isn't super vocal about it who they are voting for, so that's just my general impression).

I used to belong to an Evangelical church in Madison, and a lot of my fellow alums I keep up with are in the "I hate Trump but I'm also against voting for any candidate who supports legal abortion" camp. As someone who used to vote Republican because abortion, I understand that viewpoint. There's also a lot of distress and cognitive dissonance concerning the plight of immigrants, and especially the children of immigrants. Of course, Madison, WI is so liberal, even the Evangelicals are liberal-ish and they're not very representative of this demographic at large. But if Trump loses Evangelical support, it will be among these sorts of voters.