PA-01 (PPP): Biden +16

[GeorgiaModerate]

PA-01 (NOT the entire state): PPP, June 10-11, 753 LV.  This is an internal for D candidate Christina Finello.

Biden 56
Trump 40

Trump lost this district by 2 points in 2016.

[BlueSwan]

Nice.

[OneJ]

This looks similar to the NE-02 internal from Eastman where there was a large gap between her margin and Biden's. I'm hoping that Biden could pull them over the finish line if he's leading in both districts by sizable margins.

[wbrocks67]

For context:

Hillary Clinton won it by 2% in 2016 (lost by 0.7% statewide)
Bob Casey won it by 15% in 2018 (won by 13% statewide)
Tom Wolf won it by 19% in 2018 (won by 17% statewide)

If Biden is winning by 16%, then Trump cannot win PA. Nowhere close.

[Alben Barkley]

For context:

Hillary Clinton won it by 2% in 2016 (lost by 0.7% statewide)
Bob Casey won it by 15% in 2018 (won by 13% statewide)
Tom Wolf won it by 19% in 2018 (won by 17% statewide)

If Biden is winning by 16%, then Trump cannot win PA. Nowhere close.

Wow so every time it was about 2 points more D than the state. Meaning if we assume that trend holds and extrapolate this to the rest of the state, you get Biden +14.

[Devils30]

Bucks county will be a lot bluer this year, I can see Chester being around 58-40% Biden too

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Bucks county will be a lot bluer this year, I can see Chester being around 58-40% Biden too

I recently visited a friend out in Chester County for her birthday (don't worry folks, it was a socially-distanced outdoor event) and I have to say: it's still pretty remarkable to me that it's swung in the Democrats' direction over the past half-decade or so.  

Rich (and I mean RICH), white, educated -- all things that would have made it a lock for the Republicans pre-Obama.  I've always thought of ChesCo as the eastern Orange County in that sense. 

[Holmes]

For context:

Hillary Clinton won it by 2% in 2016 (lost by 0.7% statewide)
Bob Casey won it by 15% in 2018 (won by 13% statewide)
Tom Wolf won it by 19% in 2018 (won by 17% statewide)

If Biden is winning by 16%, then Trump cannot win PA. Nowhere close.

Wow so every time it was about 2 points more D than the state. Meaning if we assume that trend holds and extrapolate this to the rest of the state, you get Biden +14.

This tracks with the margin between he D vote and R vote in the PA primary, fwiw.

[Person Man]

Bucks county will be a lot bluer this year, I can see Chester being around 58-40% Biden too

I recently visited a friend out in Chester County for her birthday (don't worry folks, it was a socially-distanced outdoor event) and I have to say: it's still pretty remarkable to me that it's swung in the Democrats' direction over the past half-decade or so.  

Rich (and I mean RICH), white, educated -- all things that would have made it a lock for the Republicans pre-Obama.  I've always thought of ChesCo as the eastern Orange County in that sense. 

It's the same thing where I was working in Stamford, CT. Smallest house on the block was a million bucks. Lots of Trump paraphernalia out there but apparently Hillary did really well there.

[Devils30]

Bucks county will be a lot bluer this year, I can see Chester being around 58-40% Biden too

I recently visited a friend out in Chester County for her birthday (don't worry folks, it was a socially-distanced outdoor event) and I have to say: it's still pretty remarkable to me that it's swung in the Democrats' direction over the past half-decade or so.  

Rich (and I mean RICH), white, educated -- all things that would have made it a lock for the Republicans pre-Obama.  I've always thought of ChesCo as the eastern Orange County in that sense. 

Has a lot of the white college grad families making between 100-250K. This group has trended D the fastest of any in America.

[Skye]

The margin is just insane. I know it's an internal, but still.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Oh that is beautiful

[Horus]

No doubt Biden will romp here, but will his coattails be enough to drag Christine Finello (A fairly weak candidate) over the line?

[Tartarus Sauce]

No doubt Biden will romp here, but will his coattails be enough to drag Christine Finello (A fairly weak candidate) over the line?

In 2018, there was massive ticket-splitting here from the top lines in both the US House and state legislature, with Brian Fitzpatrick and Republican state legislators significantly outpacing Bartletta’s and Wagners performance in the district. I’m somewhat skeptical they would be able to put up such a strong overperformance again in a presidential year with Trump on the ballot, so it’s fairly likely that Biden’s coattails would be enough if it was this large.

[xavier110]

Bucks county will be a lot bluer this year, I can see Chester being around 58-40% Biden too

I recently visited a friend out in Chester County for her birthday (don't worry folks, it was a socially-distanced outdoor event) and I have to say: it's still pretty remarkable to me that it's swung in the Democrats' direction over the past half-decade or so.  

Rich (and I mean RICH), white, educated -- all things that would have made it a lock for the Republicans pre-Obama.  I've always thought of ChesCo as the eastern Orange County in that sense. 

Has a lot of the white college grad families making between 100-250K. This group has trended D the fastest of any in America.

Yeah, how is this surprising? The well-to-do, well-educated professional types hate him. Some may have still held their nose in 2016, but they totally abandoned gop in 2018 and will easily go for Biden in 2020. A populist, rude and dumb candidate does not appeal to educated, professional Romney voters.

[Orser67]

Fitzpatrick could probably survive a 5 point Trump loss, but he's done if Biden is winning by 10+ points.

Rich (and I mean RICH), white, educated -- all things that would have made it a lock for the Republicans pre-Obama.  I've always thought of ChesCo as the eastern Orange County in that sense. 

Lol, I've never thought of it that way before. I suppose in those terms it is a fair comparison, but I won't fully accept the label until we have a mediocre teen high school drama named for us.