New Jersey (Rutgers/Eagleton): Biden +23

[wbrocks67]

Biden 56%
Trump 33%

Biden fav: 45/37 (+8)
Trump fav: 31/59 (-28)

Trump job approval: 37/63 (-26)

https://www.rutgers.edu/news/rutgers-eagleton-poll-slight-majority-support-voting-mail-new-jerseys-july-primary-most

Even bigger than Quinnipiac's Biden +19.

This was also taken April 22-May 2, a rather large date range, but also during the peak of Reade-gate.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Among adults (1502):

Biden - 55
Trump - 32

Also a 23 point margin.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The MoE is 4.2% among 689 registered voters, for whom the title's figures apply.

Statewide, 2018's House elections broke 60%D-39%R. I wonder if Van Drew is in jeopardy.

[psychprofessor]

ooof clinton only won here by 13
suburbs are a bloodbath for trump

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

The MoE is 4.2% among 689 registered voters, for whom the title's figures apply.

Statewide, 2018's House elections broke 60%D-39%R. I wonder if Van Drew is in jeopardy.

Of course he is. After all, he flipped the district two years ago before he went over to the dark side. No reason it can't happen again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

My wonderful state may very well deliver a record-breaking walloping for a Republican presidential candidate...post-Goldwater of course.

The MoE is 4.2% among 689 registered voters, for whom the title's figures apply.

Statewide, 2018's House elections broke 60%D-39%R. I wonder if Van Drew is in jeopardy.

Of course he is. After all, he flipped the district two years ago before he went over to the dark side. No reason it can't happen again.

I sure would like for this traitor to be kicked out of his seat. It's especially scummy since he switched parties for entirely petty reasons. Vote-wise he is exactly the same.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Trump must be absolutely getting curbed in the suburbs.

[NOVA Green]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

[S019]

This is a quite large margin for Biden, but Republican Congressional candidates, are going to have a hard time outrunning Trump if he tanks like this in New Jersey, this would be a swing of 9 points towards Biden, which would mean a place like NJ-07 would be close to Biden+10, also if Biden wins by this much, it could possibly hurt Republican chances in southern New Jersey, where they have a possible pickup and a tough seat to defend, also looks like Morris will vote blue for the first time since 1964.

[cg41386]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen is already pretty solid Dem. HRC came within I believe 6% of winning Morris. Monmouth is pretty solid GOP.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

This is a quite large margin for Biden, but Republican Congressional candidates, are going to have a hard time outrunning Trump if he tanks like this in New Jersey, this would be a swing of 9 points towards Biden, which would mean a place like NJ-07 would be close to Biden+10, also if Biden wins by this much, it could possibly hurt Republican chances in southern New Jersey, where they have a possible pickup and a tough seat to defend, also looks like Morris will vote blue for the first time since 1964.

I wonder who the Situation voted for? He seems like a old school Italian South Jersey machine Democrat.

[Sir Mohamed]

Can we have more polls from actual battlegrounds instead? That'll be great.

[NewYorkExpress]

Biden's up by a lot in New Jersey, but I highly doubt he's up by 19 or 23 (though he might win by those margins once the undecided voters take sides).

[CookieDamage]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen has been pretty DEM for ages

[Devils30]

Biden will win Morris and possibly approach +20 in Somerset. Even Hunterdon looks like it could be around a -7 thing, a bit Democratic overperformance. South Jersey seems like its trending R, Kim might hang on but doubt Van Drew loses.

[NOVA Green]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen has been pretty DEM for ages

Totally understand that....

Still, it was only 55-41 HRC in '16, 55-44 Obama in '12, and 54-45 Obama in '08.

As the largest County by Voters in NJ, it seems unfeasible for Biden to be leading by 23%, without a significant swing within Bergen County, from what have been relatively stagnant DEM PRES numbers over the past three Presidential Elections.

[Progressive Pessimist]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen has been pretty DEM for ages

Totally understand that....

Still, it was only 55-41 HRC in '16, 55-44 Obama in '12, and 54-45 Obama in '08.

As the largest County by Voters in NJ, it seems unfeasible for Biden to be leading by 23%, without a significant swing within Bergen County, from what have been relatively stagnant DEM PRES numbers over the past three Presidential Elections.

I think Biden can win Bergen by a record amount (as with the entire state). Clinton improved on Obama's margins due to winning some of the more affluent, well-educated suburbs in the northern parts of the state as well as those near the Palisades which used to be staunchly Republican, however she lost some of the Meadowlands municipalities that Obama swept in 2012 which are more industrial, swingy, and working-class. I expect that Biden will hang onto the affluent suburbs and also improve in the Meadowlands. That could be enough for him to at least slightly improve on that stagnant 55%. Furthermore Gottheimer is going to win even bigger than in 2018, I believe. Keep the tax bill and how it affected SALT in mind.

[Ferguson97]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen has been pretty DEM for ages

Totally understand that....

Still, it was only 55-41 HRC in '16, 55-44 Obama in '12, and 54-45 Obama in '08.

As the largest County by Voters in NJ, it seems unfeasible for Biden to be leading by 23%, without a significant swing within Bergen County, from what have been relatively stagnant DEM PRES numbers over the past three Presidential Elections.

I think Biden can win Bergen by a record amount (as with the entire state). Clinton improved on Obama's margins due to winning some of the more affluent, well-educated suburbs in the northern parts of the state as well as those near the Palisades which used to be staunchly Republican, however she lost some of the Meadowlands municipalities that Obama swept in 2012 which are more industrial, swingy, and working-class. I expect that Biden will hang onto the affluent suburbs and also improve in the Meadowlands. That could be enough for him to at least slightly improve on that stagnant 55%. Furthermore Gottheimer is going to win even bigger than in 2018, I believe. Keep the tax bill and how it affected SALT in mind.

I'm from Gottheimer's district and I think he'll win again.

[Progressive Pessimist]

WOW!!!

if true, looking like Bergen, Morris, & Monmouth Counties are swinging hard DEM...

Bergen has been pretty DEM for ages

Totally understand that....

Still, it was only 55-41 HRC in '16, 55-44 Obama in '12, and 54-45 Obama in '08.

As the largest County by Voters in NJ, it seems unfeasible for Biden to be leading by 23%, without a significant swing within Bergen County, from what have been relatively stagnant DEM PRES numbers over the past three Presidential Elections.

I think Biden can win Bergen by a record amount (as with the entire state). Clinton improved on Obama's margins due to winning some of the more affluent, well-educated suburbs in the northern parts of the state as well as those near the Palisades which used to be staunchly Republican, however she lost some of the Meadowlands municipalities that Obama swept in 2012 which are more industrial, swingy, and working-class. I expect that Biden will hang onto the affluent suburbs and also improve in the Meadowlands. That could be enough for him to at least slightly improve on that stagnant 55%. Furthermore Gottheimer is going to win even bigger than in 2018, I believe. Keep the tax bill and how it affected SALT in mind.

I'm from Gottheimer's district and I think he'll win again.

I'm a Bergen County resident, he absolutely will.

[DaleCooper]

Also of note is that Trump is polling much closer to his favorability against Biden than his approval rating. I think that this is the key to the question of why Trump consistently underperforms his job approval.