Why did Jared Golden survive?

[Tekken_Guy]

Why did Jared Golden survive re-election while other freshmen Democrats from Republican districts lost?

[Frenchrepublican]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

[Calthrina950]

Maine appears to be one of the few states where ticket-splitting is still a very substantial practice among much of the electorate. Just as Susan Collins won reelection thanks to ticket-splitting by a large segment of Biden voters, so did Jared Golden win reelection due to ticket-splitting by a large segment of Trump voters. Of course, Golden will be one of the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents in 2022, and I think he will lose.

[PAK Man]

I'm sure the fact that he endorsed Collins probably had something to do with it. Golden took a stance as an independent Democrat and actually followed through with it.

[Left Wing]

I'm sure the fact that he endorsed Collins probably had something to do with it. Golden took a stance as an independent Democrat and actually followed through with it.

Golden didn't endorse Collins, he stayed neutral.

[KaiserDave]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

[Squidward500]

He has some crossover appeal. Particularly in the Lewiston and Bangor areas. The republicans would be smart to nominate a blue collar “Everyman” from the north in 2022. Maybe get a lumberjack or a lobsterman. ME-2 will change very little due to Maine needing 2/3 majority to gerrymander. A few towns in kennebec will move but that’s it

[lfromnj]

He has some crossover appeal. Particularly in the Lewiston and Bangor areas. The republicans would be smart to nominate a blue collar “Everyman” from the north in 2022. Maybe get a lumberjack or a lobsterman. ME-2 will change very little due to Maine needing 2/3 majority to gerrymander. A few towns in kennebec will move but that’s it

The strongest crossover appeal areas were the French towns along the northern part. Very #Populist
75% Obama to Trump towns.

[VAR]

There's a couple of reasons:

-ME-02 is very incumbent friendly and has re-elected all but one of its incumbents since 1916. Poliquin did lose, but he lost in a D+9 year, and Republican turnout was quite mediocre.
-Republicans didn't target Golden at all because the polls showed a dead heat at the presidential level and Golden leading Crafts by 20+ points. Actually trying makes a difference.
-Maybe voting Biden/Collins/Golden made voters feel "moderate"?
-Golden successfully distanced himself from national Democrats, and his impeachment vote definitely helped.

Unless 2022 is significantly better than expected for Ds, I don't see Golden surviving, but I wouldn't call him DOA. Trends in this district are quite ugly for Democrats, though.

[Squidward500]

He has some crossover appeal. Particularly in the Lewiston and Bangor areas. The republicans would be smart to nominate a blue collar “Everyman” from the north in 2022. Maybe get a lumberjack or a lobsterman. ME-2 will change very little due to Maine needing 2/3 majority to gerrymander. A few towns in kennebec will move but that’s it

The strongest crossover appeal areas were the French towns along the northern part. Very #Populist
75% Obama to Trump towns.

Northern Maine is very interesting. It’s swung about 15-20 points right from Obama 57% to Trump around 60 in Somerset, Piscataquis, and Aroostook. That on top of driving down the road where one side is American houses, and the other is a Canadian golf course. (The curb on the sidewalk is the border). That and seeing stopsigns that say ARRÊT

[Frenchrepublican]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

I agree that Brown is not faking a moderate image, he is simply a lucky dude who had the luxury to run until now in dem waves and who will lose the minute his luck runs out, but as for Golden if his voting record is pretty liberal, he is certainly doing his best to try to projet a moderate image (running pro guns ads, not endorsing Gideon, splitting his votes on the impeachment issue).

[KaiserDave]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

I agree that Brown is not faking a moderate image, he is simply a lucky dude who had the luxury to run until now in dem waves and who will lose the minute his luck runs out, but as for Golden if his voting record is pretty liberal, he is doing his best to try to projet a moderate image (running pro guns ads, not endorsing Gideon, splitting his votes on the impeachment issue).

He’s progressive on some issues and not as much on others. It’s easy to make a Manchin comparison but Golden is meaningfully to his left. But what they do both share (and Collins) is a very good understanding of their states and voters.

[MT Treasurer]

Joe Manchin had a very good understanding of his voters in 2018. Steve Bullock had a very good understanding of his state in 2020. The former won, the latter didn’t. Why? Candidates/campaigns absolutely matter in states/districts in which the partisan lean favors your party and any major underperformance of said lean can be prevented with the right kind of campaign.

[KaiserDave]

Joe Manchin had a very good understanding of his voters in 2018. Steve Bullock had a very good understanding of his state in 2020. The former won, the latter didn’t. Why? Candidates/campaigns absolutely matter in states/districts in which the partisan lean favors your party and any major underperformance of said lean can be prevented with the right kind of campaign.

Well Bullock’s understanding of voters in general may be lessened by his brilliant and well judged presidential candidacy.

Not to mention how presidential turnout helped Daines.

[Frenchrepublican]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

I agree that Brown is not faking a moderate image, he is simply a lucky dude who had the luxury to run until now in dem waves and who will lose the minute his luck runs out, but as for Golden if his voting record is pretty liberal, he is doing his best to try to projet a moderate image (running pro guns ads, not endorsing Gideon, splitting his votes on the impeachment issue).

He’s progressive on some issues and not as much on others. It’s easy to make a Manchin comparison but Golden is meaningfully to his left. But what they do both share (and Collins) is a very good understanding of their states and voters.

It's very debatable (Manchin is not as much moderate than some people want to believe), but my point was about the camparison between Golden and Brown you made.

[KaiserDave]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

I agree that Brown is not faking a moderate image, he is simply a lucky dude who had the luxury to run until now in dem waves and who will lose the minute his luck runs out, but as for Golden if his voting record is pretty liberal, he is doing his best to try to projet a moderate image (running pro guns ads, not endorsing Gideon, splitting his votes on the impeachment issue).

He’s progressive on some issues and not as much on others. It’s easy to make a Manchin comparison but Golden is meaningfully to his left. But what they do both share (and Collins) is a very good understanding of their states and voters.

It's very debatable (Manchin is not as much moderate than some people want to believe), but my point was about the camparison between Golden and Brown you made.

Well yes but Brown too overperforms. His margins indicate something more than luck.

[Frenchrepublican]

Because #Populism

Seriously, the race was triaged and Crafts doesn't seem to be a very serious candidate, he was outraised by a lot even by 2020 standards, also Golden is very good at faking a moderate image, see his split vote during the impeachment.

Golden doesn't fake a moderate image at all, in the same way that Sherrod Brown doesn't. I mean, Golden voted for M4A.

In any case the answer has very little to do with how much of a #weakcandidate Crafts was. Everyone knows weak challengers don't win, like notorious flops Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Burgess Owens.

Golden, believe it or not, like Susan Collins knows Maine very well. He knows how to get his voters out and he knows how to win.

I agree that Brown is not faking a moderate image, he is simply a lucky dude who had the luxury to run until now in dem waves and who will lose the minute his luck runs out, but as for Golden if his voting record is pretty liberal, he is doing his best to try to projet a moderate image (running pro guns ads, not endorsing Gideon, splitting his votes on the impeachment issue).

He’s progressive on some issues and not as much on others. It’s easy to make a Manchin comparison but Golden is meaningfully to his left. But what they do both share (and Collins) is a very good understanding of their states and voters.

It's very debatable (Manchin is not as much moderate than some people want to believe), but my point was about the camparison between Golden and Brown you made.

Well yes but Brown too overperforms. His margins indicate something more than luck.

2018 : the national dem wave + extremely weak opponent

2012 : Obama barnstorming the state + Romney being weak among blue collar workers + good climate for Senate democrats + extremely high turnout among blacks

2006 : Taft scandal which sunk Dewine + national dem wave + Ohio being a bit to the left of the country during the mids 2000s

[lfromnj]

FWIW I think even  with a proper campaign by the GOP Brown would have still won 2018 by 1 point as the average of the statewide races was around R+3 in 2018 excluding the senate race. An A tier campaign/candidate could have taken him down though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I still am not sure. A bad opponent perhaps?

[GoldenMainer]

He's a strong candidate and a good fit for his district. An inoffensive, "nice guy" veteran certainly can't hurt. He understands his district and keeps things local instead of getting involved in Washington D.C. drama and hot button national issues. Even the way he dresses is smart- you always see him in some jeans, a plaid button down, and Carhartt boots. He's not stuffy or uppity, just a down-to-earth guy people feel comfortable with.

His ads were solid. He was one Dem candidate who had a police-focused ad or two. In one, the former Maine Chief of Police endorsed and spoke highly of him. He also had ads focusing on Bath Iron Works, stopping regulations for fishermen, and healthcare. In his first 2 years, he had a laser-focus on issues with broad support & local issues. He also delivered in helping to bring the first VA Treatment program for substance abuse and mental health to Maine.

[VAR]

He's a strong candidate and a good fit for his district. An inoffensive, "nice guy", veteran certainly can't hurt. He understands his district and keeps things local instead of getting involved in Washington D.C. drama and hot button national issues. Even the way he dresses is smart- you always see him in some jeans, a plaid button down, and Carhartt boots. He's not stuffy or uppity, just a down-to-earth guy people feel comfortable with.

His ads were solid. He was one Dem candidate who had a police-focused ad or two. In one, the former Maine Chief of Police endorsed and spoke highly of him. He also had ads focusing on Bath Iron Works, stopping regulations for fishermen, and healthcare. In his first 2 years, he had a laser-focus on issues with broad support & local issues. He also delivered in bringing the first VA Treatment program for substance abuse and mental health to Maine.

How would you rate his 2022 race?

[GoldenMainer]

At this point, I'd rate it as a toss-up. Republicans were turning out for Trump and Collins in district two and it was a bad year for House Dems. AND Golden voted to impeach Trump on one of the counts. But he still won. I can't see him doing much worse that he did this year. I mean, even Emily Cain got 45% in this district and Golden is a far better candidate than Cain. If he continues avoiding hot button issues and continues on the path that he's on, I think he'll be fine.

I think Golden will be Angus King's replacement when he retires in 2024 anyways. Maine Dems make some boneheaded moves when it comes to recruitment in statewide races, but they can't be that dumb to want someone over Golden (who has shown he can outperform other Dems in certain parts of the state).

[Squidward500]

At this point, I'd rate it as a toss-up. Republicans were turning out for Trump and Collins in district two and it was a bad year for House Dems. AND Golden voted to impeach Trump on one of the counts. But he still won. I can't see him doing much worse that he did this year. I mean, even Emily Cain got 45% in this district and Golden is a far better candidate than Cain. If he continues avoiding hot button issues and continues on the path that he's on, I think he'll be fine.

I think Golden will be Angus King's replacement when he retires in 2024 anyways. Maine Dems make some boneheaded moves when it comes to recruitment in statewide races, but they can't be that dumb to want someone over Golden (who has shown he can outperform other Dems in certain parts of the state).

Do you think Golden would beat Gideon in a primary? Maines D base is very liberal and concentrated on the coast. I lean right bit as Maine is a swing state I feel they are best served with a senator from each party. Especially as Golden and Collins would probably be center of the road senators. Gideon strikes me as an Elizabeth Warren wannabe

[GoldenMainer]

I don't see a ton of retreads for statewide office in Maine. After they lost, Tom Allen, Shenna Bellows, Jean Hay Bright, Libby Mitchell, Cynthia Dill, and Zak Ringelstein didn't run for a statewide office again. I don't think there'd be much appetite for a candidate (Gideon) who had that much $ and failed to seal the deal.

Not to mention, Golden has cosponsored Medicare for All before and Gideon did not support it. He has also been outspoken in getting money out of politics- in contrast to out of state money pouring in for Gideon in her senate race. That could win him a lot of support from progressives in Portland. If he held onto his second district support and won over progressives, he'd be fine. I have gotten the feeling that Angus King likes Golden and is grooming him for higher office anyways.

[KaiserDave]

I don't see a ton of retreads for statewide office in Maine. After they lost, Tom Allen, Shenna Bellows, Jean Hay Bright, Libby Mitchell, Cynthia Dill, and Zak Ringelstein didn't run for a statewide office again. I don't think there'd be much appetite for a candidate (Gideon) who had that much $ and failed to seal the deal.

Not to mention, Golden has cosponsored Medicare for All before and Gideon did not support it. He has also been outspoken in getting money out of politics- in contrast to out of state money pouring in for Gideon in her senate race. That could win him a lot of support from progressives in Portland. If he held onto his second district support and won over progressives, he'd be fine. I have gotten the feeling that Angus King likes Golden and is grooming him for higher office anyways.

I hope so! Angus is wonderful, as is Jared. Golden is much much much better than Gideon.