Lackawanna County, PA (OurProgress)- Biden +17

[Bidenworth2020]

Biden 56
Trump 39

https://becd085d-5f24-4974-b9b5-73518197155a.filesusr.com/ugd/83fab9_fc780fe6581942cab5733cd9dd0e55bc.pdf

Reported 2016 Vote

Clinton 50
Trump 46

[President Johnson]

A Democratic pollster (?), but this would be pretty good, considering Hillary won this county by a bare three point margin, after Obama, Kerry and Gore crushed their opponents here.

[The Mikado]

N =293 is...not great, but for a poll of a single county, it'll do.

Anyway, if that swing is remotely accurate and Biden does a lot better in NE Pennsylvania, it becomes really hard to see how Trump wins PA, especially given their Erie County poll earlier this week.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Well, it is his home county after all.

[Devils30]

Anything over 10 is pretty much a lock for Biden in PA here.

[Podgy the Bear]

N =293 is...not great, but for a poll of a single county, it'll do.

Anyway, if that swing is remotely accurate and Biden does a lot better in NE Pennsylvania, it becomes really hard to see how Trump wins PA, especially given their Erie County poll earlier this week.

It's better number than the 300 total that CNN polled out of multiple battleground states to make a claim that Trump is winning.

[pbrower2a]

Big swing in one state, and surely it dwarfs any concern about pollster bias.

[wbrocks67]

Not totally unbelievable, Biden is a better fit, and Casey even won this county by +23 in 2018.

[Alben Barkley]

SCRANTON JOE

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Big swing in one state, and surely it dwarfs any concern about pollster bias.

It doesn't dismiss the concern about this pollster being fake. I've got little reason to believe they are, but others have suggested it might be without being confident either way (Nathaniel Rakich, 538 and Drew Savicki have hinted as much, among others).

[ProudModerate2]

N =293 is...not great, but for a poll of a single county, it'll do.

Anyway, if that swing is remotely accurate and Biden does a lot better in NE Pennsylvania, it becomes really hard to see how Trump wins PA, especially given their Erie County poll earlier this week.

Agree.
Put this poll together with the other one, and things are not looking good for trump in PA.
Good news!

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Scranton Joe.

[Sbane]

Almost certainly inflated, so let’s add 10 points to Trump's %. Oops, he still loses the state with that margin in Lackawanna.

This exactly. Even if a county like this or Erie only swings to Biden by a few points, that is enough to swing the state along with the expected swings in the suburbs.