Can Biden win Georgia?

[Alben Barkley]

This is ridiculous, you’d think this state is as red as Wyoming the way a lot of people talk about it here

Seriously. The state only voted about a point to the right of AZ and NC in 2016, yet people act like they are in completely different leagues. Not really, no. AZ and NC are a bit more likely to flip than GA, but it's definitely not off the table. At the rate the state is trending, Biden would probably only have to win the NPV by 5 points or so to either win or come very close, not high single let alone double digits. If he does win by that much, he is DEFINITELY winning Georgia.

So unless you're also saying Biden winning the NPV by a few points more than Hillary is an absolute impossibility, it is ridiculous to say he can't win.

GA is inelastic

So inelastic Hillary lost it by 5 after Obama (who was a better fit for the state, and ran in a better year for Democrats) lost it by 8? That was already a 3 point D trend while the nation as a whole trended R. Then the 2018 gov race was even closer, and suburban House districts like GA-06 flipped. It is quite clearly trending D. And as the Atlanta area continues to both grow and get more Democratic, it will likely start to trend D faster. It is not as "inelastic" as say South Carolina or Mississippi; the key difference is they don't really have an Atlanta equivalent. It resembles North Carolina more -- both states have rapidly growing urban areas with increasingly liberal suburbs. Yes, it might still move a little slower and be a little more resistant than AZ or NC, which is why it's not quite in exactly the same tier as them. But this idea that supposed "elasticity" is destiny is ridiculous. Georgia will very likely flip if not this election then within the next couple.

[pppolitics]

GA is inelastic

What does that have to do with more than 500k voters who are inclined to vote Dem (young ppl + POC) registering to vote since 2016 (and 2018)?

Abrams had the get out the vote campaign in Georgia's history and no Democrats managed to win statewide that year.

While the state is trending D, the votes simply might not be there yet.

[pppolitics]

So inelastic Hillary lost it by 5 after Obama (who was a better fit for the state, and ran in a better ear for Democrats) lost it by 8? That was already a 3 point D trend. Then the 2018 gov race was even closer, and suburban House districts like GA-06 flipped. It is quite clearly trending D. And as the Atlanta area continues to both grow and get more Democratic, it will likely start to trend D faster. It is not as "inelastic" as say South Carolina or Mississippi; the key difference is they don't really have an Atlanta equivalent. It resembles North Carolina more -- both states have rapidly growing urban areas with increasingly liberal suburbs. Yes, it might still move a little slower and be a little more resistant than AZ or NC, which is why it's not quite in exactly the same tier as them. But this idea that supposed "elasticity" is destiny is ridiculous. Georgia will very likely flip if not this election then within the next couple.

GA is less elastic than either SC or MS.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-house-districts-that-swing-the-most-and-least-with-the-national-mood/

[TML]

I think he has a 1-in-3 chance of winning GA.

[Rookie Yinzer]

GA is inelastic

What does that have to do with more than 500k voters who are inclined to vote Dem (young ppl + POC) registering to vote since 2016 (and 2018)?

Abrams had the get out the vote campaign in Georgia's history and no Democrats managed to win statewide that year.

While the state is trending D, the votes simply might not be there yet.

Enough votes were there to drag GA from a 5 point loss to a 1 point loss in one cycle with key groups like young people and Latinos making up less of the electorate than in 2016 and 2020 but oh ok.....

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Of course lol

[Xing]

I dunno man, gonna be hard to crack that stubbornly persistent ceiling of 44% 45% 46% 48.8%, especially without the abundance of elasto-stretchy voters that a state like IA has.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

GA is inelastic

What does that have to do with more than 500k voters who are inclined to vote Dem (young ppl + POC) registering to vote since 2016 (and 2018)?

Abrams had the get out the vote campaign in Georgia's history and no Democrats managed to win statewide that year.

While the state is trending D, the votes simply might not be there yet.

We've had another 2 years of demographic change. That should put this election at an almost exact tie. How it turns out if unclear, but the race in GA is going to be incredibly close.