Virus to keep Third Parties off the 2020 ballots

[Tender Branson]

The pandemic may have robbed Donald Trump of a growing economy. It may have trapped Joe Biden in his basement. But it may yet do something even worse to the Libertarian and Green party nominees: keep them off the ballot in many of this year’s key states.

In 2016, the Libertarian Party was on the general election ballot in all 50 states; this year, it has secured ballot access in just 35. Similarly, the Green Party—which in 2016 had its best election ever by making the ballot in 44 states, with another three states granting the party’s candidate official write-in status—has qualified for the November ballot in only 22 states.

Several of the elusive ballot lines are in states that in 2016 were either narrowly won or flipped from red-to-blue. At present, neither the Libertarian Party nor the Green Party has qualified for the ballot in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Iowa or Minnesota. Additionally, the Green Party has not secured a place on the ballot in Arizona, Georgia or Nevada, and the Libertarian Party is missing from Maine.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/19/coronavirus-election-2020-third-party-libertarian-green-trump-biden-193013

[SnowLabrador]

Third-party voting will probably be less than 1% this year.

[Inmate Trump]

I know people who voted Jill Stein in 2016, who are begrudgingly supporting Biden this year.

I think there's a percentage of third party voters who just assumed Hillary would take it in 2016, but now see the bigger picture that their vote certainly does matter.

[They not like us]

Ohhhh what a shame

/s

[NHI]

I know people who voted Jill Stein in 2016, who are begrudgingly supporting Biden this year.

I think there's a percentage of third party voters who just assumed Hillary would take it in 2016, but now see the bigger picture that their vote certainly does matter.

i.e. the Supreme Court. Glad to hear people are coming around!

[The Mikado]

They'll still hit a lot of the states. Some of the ones with absurdly easy filing rules just haven't opened yet. The Libertarians won't hit 50 state ballot access again, but they'll be well over 40 states.

[BaldEagle1991]

Biden isn’t as repulsive to many people has Hillary was so third parties aren’t going to be a factor this year.

[Canis]

I know people who voted Jill Stein in 2016, who are begrudgingly supporting Biden this year.

I think there's a percentage of third party voters who just assumed Hillary would take it in 2016, but now see the bigger picture that their vote certainly does matter.

Im one of those voters I didn't vote stein cause I wasn't eligible to vote but I would have if I could and Im now supporting Biden in 2020 I also know a few Gary Johnson Voters backing Biden or planning on not voting Im really curious what the breakdown of Johnson Voters will be 

[Bidenworth2020]

I know people who voted Jill Stein in 2016, who are begrudgingly supporting Biden this year.

I think there's a percentage of third party voters who just assumed Hillary would take it in 2016, but now see the bigger picture that their vote certainly does matter.

Im one of those voters I didn't vote stein cause I wasn't eligible to vote but I would have if I could and Im now supporting Biden in 2020 I also know a few Gary Johnson Voters backing Biden or planning on not voting Im really curious what the breakdown of Johnson Voters will be 

I think Biden could make a huge dent if he just supported recreational marijuana. This has to be one of the dumbest positions Biden has, politically speaking.

[Canis]

I know people who voted Jill Stein in 2016, who are begrudgingly supporting Biden this year.

I think there's a percentage of third party voters who just assumed Hillary would take it in 2016, but now see the bigger picture that their vote certainly does matter.

Im one of those voters I didn't vote stein cause I wasn't eligible to vote but I would have if I could and Im now supporting Biden in 2020 I also know a few Gary Johnson Voters backing Biden or planning on not voting Im really curious what the breakdown of Johnson Voters will be 

I think Biden could make a huge dent if he just supported recreational marijuana. This has to be one of the dumbest positions Biden has, politically speaking.

Agreed young voters love marijuana its a lot of our number one issues

[PSOL]

This is bad for our democratic system, as it robs the people of choice. It is telling that most of the comments here are very loosely or not at all related to what the OP is.

[morgankingsley]

Couldn't write in also suffice

[ajc0918]

Most third party voters will vote for Biden.

[AGA]

This is bad for our democratic system, as it robs the people of choice. It is telling that most of the comments here are very loosely or not at all related to what the OP is.

Third parties merely offer the illusion of choice.

[Non Swing Voter]

And this is good news for Democrats as they nominated Biden instead of Sanders.  He'll get the vast majority of green voters and a good chunk of libertarians (who would not have voted for Sanders).

[StateBoiler]

Third-party voting will probably be less than 1% this year.

I'll take that bet. How much are you offering?

My guesstimate is 3%, which most of the difference from 2016 benefitting Trump because the Libertarian vote is going to go down from their all-time high (maybe it doesn't if Amash is the candidate) and there's no anti-Trump McMullin candidacy this time. I think most of the anti-Trump 2016 right-wing vote is going home because anti-Trumpism on the right has declined. (I had a thread about this a couple months ago I started which goes in much greater detail.)

[StateBoiler]

There's a ton of ballot access relief and requests for relief going on in courts and legislatures right now per Richard Winger at Ballot Access News because most places require petitions and signatures to get on the ballot and that's not really kosher right now. It's not just Libertarians and Greens, it's candidates wanting to file as Democrats and Republicans.

An Illinois judge granted relief based on who had ballot access in 2016/18 in the same races, so that gets the Libertarian and Green parties on the presidential ballot there. Connecticut are thinking of doing the same thing there of if you have ballot access for one statewide race in 2020, you get access to all of them. I know that would give presidential ballot access to the Independent Party there (which recently became the CT state affiliate of the new Alliance Party).

[chibul]

Third-party voting will probably be less than 1% this year.

I'll take that bet. How much are you offering?

My guesstimate is 3%, which most of the difference from 2016 benefitting Trump because the Libertarian vote is going to go down from their all-time high (maybe it doesn't if Amash is the candidate) and there's no anti-Trump McMullin candidacy this time. I think most of the anti-Trump 2016 right-wing vote is going home because anti-Trumpism on the right has declined. (I had a thread about this a couple months ago I started which goes in much greater detail.)

As much as I'd like to disagree with you, I can't. I think there were a lot of conservatives that didn't think Trump would be conservative that voted for McMullin or Johnson that are going to vote for Trump this time. I think the fringe left is going to vote for the green party candidate.

[StateBoiler]

Third-party voting will probably be less than 1% this year.

I'll take that bet. How much are you offering?

My guesstimate is 3%, which most of the difference from 2016 benefitting Trump because the Libertarian vote is going to go down from their all-time high (maybe it doesn't if Amash is the candidate) and there's no anti-Trump McMullin candidacy this time. I think most of the anti-Trump 2016 right-wing vote is going home because anti-Trumpism on the right has declined. (I had a thread about this a couple months ago I started which goes in much greater detail.)

As much as I'd like to disagree with you, I can't. I think there were a lot of conservatives that didn't think Trump would be conservative that voted for McMullin or Johnson that are going to vote for Trump this time. I think the fringe left is going to vote for the green party candidate.

I don't think it's going to be any different from 2016 though. I mean Stein got 1%, which is doable under Hawkins. Joe Biden is not as hated by the left-wing as Hillary Clinton was although some people do. So maybe if Hawkins only gets votes from more DSA/Sanders or nothing clienteles, say 0.7% perhaps?

The Libertarian Party nomination is really the biggest monkey wrench in this discussion. While if you're really a principled small-l libertarian, the Republican Party under Trump have completely left that philosophy and it should increase the size of the Libertarian Party base vote and membership, the difference between say Justin Amash and some of the other options at their Convention are huge as far as number of votes. Really the Libertarian Party have been able to stop gadflies from getting their presidential nomination lately, with the last gadfly that got the nomination arguably being Badnarik in 2004. But you still have that underlying threat in the neverending battle in the party between the more pragmatic and the more purist.

Wouldn't surprise me if there are some GOP or Democratic Party agents at the Libertarian Party Convention even as voting delegates acting covertly to try and nominate the candidate more beneficial to their cause. They've each certainly done worse in the past.