Chances these Dem seats flip if Trump is re-elected

[Tekken_Guy]

What are the chances the follwing Democratic-held seats will flip Republican if Trump is re-elected in 2020? Including hypotheticals for Kelly and Warnock winning the special elections.

-Arizona 2022 (Kelly)
-Arizona 2024 (Sinema)
-Colorado 2022 (Bennet)
-Georgia 2022 (Warnock)
-Maine 2024 (King)
-Michigan 2024 (Stabenow)
-Minnesota 2024 (Klobuchar)
-Montana 2024 (Tester)
-Nevada 2022 (Cortez Masto)
-Nevada 2024 (Rosen)
-New Hampshire 2022 (Hassan)
-New Mexico 2024 (Heinrich)
-Ohio 2024 (Brown)
-Pennsylvania 2024 (Casey)
-Virginia 2024 (Kaine)
-Wisconsin 2024 (Baldwin)
-West Virginia 2024 (Manchin)

[Frenchrepublican]

WV is the only seat which would definetly flip under your scenario, Ohio and Montana could also flip depending of the climate and the quality of republican candidates

[Frenchrepublican]

Chances of flipping :

-Arizona 2022 (Kelly) : 10% (without Ducey) / 40% (if Ducey runs)
-Arizona 2024 (Sinema) : 15% (without Ducey) / 40% (with Ducey)
-Colorado 2022 (Bennet) : 5%
-Georgia 2022 (Warnock) : 40% (but if Trump wins Collins is likely to prevail)
-Maine 2024 (King) : 1%
-Michigan 2024 (Stabenow) : 15%
-Minnesota 2024 (Klobuchar) : 5%
-Montana 2024 (Tester) : 50% (GOP needs to take this race seriously, if they do they can absolutely flip this seat)
-Nevada 2022 (Cortez Masto) : 10%
-Nevada 2024 (Rosen) : 10%
-New Hampshire 2022 (Hassan) : 5% (without Sununu) / 25% (with Sununu)
-New Mexico 2024 (Heinrich) : 1%
-Ohio 2024 (Brown) : 50% (will depend a lot of how seriously republicans target this race but this seat is clearly winnable)
-Pennsylvania 2024 (Casey) : 15%
-Virginia 2024 (Kaine) : 1%
-Wisconsin 2024 (Baldwin) : 25%
-West Virginia 2024 : 65% (with Manchin) 95% (without Manchin)

[Flyersfan232]

What are the chances the follwing Democratic-held seats will flip Republican if Trump is re-elected in 2020? Including hypotheticals for Kelly and Warnock winning the special elections.

-Arizona 2022 (Kelly)
-Arizona 2024 (Sinema)
-Colorado 2022 (Bennet)
-Georgia 2022 (Warnock)
-Maine 2024 (King)
-Michigan 2024 (Stabenow)
-Minnesota 2024 (Klobuchar)
-Montana 2024 (Tester)
-Nevada 2022 (Cortez Masto)
-Nevada 2024 (Rosen)
-New Hampshire 2022 (Hassan)
-New Mexico 2024 (Heinrich)
-Ohio 2024 (Brown)
-Pennsylvania 2024 (Casey)
-Virginia 2024 (Kaine)
-Wisconsin 2024 (Baldwin)
-West Virginia 2024 (Manchin)

Darcy put McNally in that seat in the first place so he can run for it in 2022