First California House district in Orange County to elect an Asian candidate
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  First California House district in Orange County to elect an Asian candidate		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: ?
#1
CA-38		  
#2
CA-39		  
#3
CA-45		  
#4
CA-45		  
#5
CA-46		  
#6
CA-47		  
#7
CA-48		  
#8
CA-49		  
#9
Other (specify district number; district moved into or newly created in OC)		  
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Partisan results
Total Voters: 7

Author Topic: First California House district in Orange County to elect an Asian candidate  (Read 14230 times)
Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« on: March 28, 2020, 08:50:54 PM »
Which district will be the first to elect an Asian candidate? Despite the large Asian population, OC hasn’t elected one to the House.
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catographer
Megameow
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« Reply #1 on: March 28, 2020, 09:37:14 PM »
I think Michelle Park Steel has the best shot in the 48th, better than Young Kim in the 39th. But both are underdogs (tbh they’ll probably lead on election night).
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Starry Eyed Jagaloon
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« Reply #2 on: March 28, 2020, 09:58:37 PM »
I expect all incumbents to win reelection. Therefore, in the current configuration, I suppose the 45th is most likely because Porter seems the most likely to end up in a higher office. That said, after the maps are redrawn in 2022, I would be unsuprised if a new district including Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, etc. elected and Asian rep.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #3 on: March 29, 2020, 08:17:44 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2020, 08:32:19 AM by ERM64man »
Quote from: 🌐 on March 28, 2020, 09:58:37 PM
I expect all incumbents to win reelection. Therefore, in the current configuration, I suppose the 45th is most likely because Porter seems the most likely to end up in a higher office. That said, after the maps are redrawn in 2022, I would be unsuprised if a new district including Garden Grove, Westminster, Fountain Valley, etc. elected and Asian rep.
What about CA-47? Lowenthal might retire soon because of his age.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #4 on: March 29, 2020, 08:42:19 AM »
Who knows what happens under the remap. I'm just going to say 48, since I think some seat is going to end up as R leaning (still marginal, but now Trump) based out of the southern hills and Newport. The most likely number for this seat is 48. It would be the best seat for Nguyen to run for. The only thing that could beat this is if an Asian plurality seat is drawn through Garden Grove, Westminster, and the rest, which would elect some Asian democrat.
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #5 on: March 29, 2020, 09:16:40 AM »
« Edited: March 29, 2020, 09:20:42 AM by ERM64man »
Quote from: Oryxslayer on March 29, 2020, 08:42:19 AM
Who knows what happens under the remap. I'm just going to say 48, since I think some seat is going to end up as R leaning (still marginal, but now Trump) based out of the southern hills and Newport. The most likely number for this seat is 48. It would be the best seat for Nguyen to run for. The only thing that could beat this is if an Asian plurality seat is drawn through Garden Grove, Westminster, and the rest, which would elect some Asian democrat.
CA-48 is the district that represents Little Saigon in Garden Grove. Could CA-47 elect an Asian Democrat (from Long Beach, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, or Westminster) when Lowenthal retires?
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #6 on: March 29, 2020, 10:37:15 AM »
Quote from: ERM64man on March 29, 2020, 09:16:40 AM
Quote from: Oryxslayer on March 29, 2020, 08:42:19 AM
Who knows what happens under the remap. I'm just going to say 48, since I think some seat is going to end up as R leaning (still marginal, but now Trump) based out of the southern hills and Newport. The most likely number for this seat is 48. It would be the best seat for Nguyen to run for. The only thing that could beat this is if an Asian plurality seat is drawn through Garden Grove, Westminster, and the rest, which would elect some Asian democrat.
CA-48 is the district that represents Little Saigon in Garden Grove. Could CA-47 elect an Asian Democrat (from Long Beach, Garden Grove, Cypress, Buena Park, or Westminster) when Lowenthal retires?

Nah, because the CA-47 arm is going somewhere else in 2020. LA counties decrease in population% in regards to her surrounding counties guarantee this happen.
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Mike Thick
tedbessell
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« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2020, 10:49:12 PM »
Probably Min in 45, whenever Porter gets promoted to her next gig
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Greedo punched first
ERM64man
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« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2020, 06:25:22 PM »
Where will CA-47’s OC side go?
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