Why did Sanders's demographics change so much in only 4 years?

[buritobr]

From 2016 to 2020, the groups who endorse Bernie Sanders became very different.

In 2016, Sanders's strongest base was the northern whites. That's why he had huge percentages in the three states of northern New England.

In 2020, his strongest base is the latinos. He won California and Nevada (Hillary won them in 2016), he almost won Texas. On the other side, he had only 1/2 of the votes in his home states, he barely won New Hampshire because of the spit of the centrist vote, and he lost Maine.

[The Free North]

My guess is that a lot of rural white voters in 2016 supported Bernie as a protest vote against Clinton more than anything else. Sanders was an acceptable alternative given his populist rhetoric, but there was likely a sizable ideological gap between the two sides. With Clinton gone this time, they can support Biden safely and Sanders is left out in the cold.

[Storebought]

That, and Sanders jettisoned his opposition to open borders and promised to abolish ICE.

[Arbitrage1980]

1. Working class white voted for Bernie in 2016 as a protest vote against Hillary and are now Trump supporters.
2. Bernie moved far left on immigration, advocating for decriminalization of illegal entry, ending deportations, eliminating ICE, and giving free health insurance to illegals. This allowed him to get Latino support, as Latino Dems want open borders and government services to illegals on taxpayers' dime.

[Green Line]

Like I said a million times in the past 4 years, Sanders was just the anti Hillary choice in 2016.  He won a lot of WCW voters who didn't care about his socialism etc., they just hated hillary.  Notice how the "socialist" aspect of Bernie was barely mentioned at all in 2016, and how its become such a huge topic this time around.  When he was winning districts like IL-3 in 2016, people wrongly assumed they wanted a revolution.  Really, they just wanted an alternative to the Clintons.

[lfromnj]

Like I said a million times in the past 4 years, Sanders was just the anti Hillary choice in 2016.  He won a lot of WCW voters who didn't care about his socialism etc., they just hated hillary.  Notice how the "socialist" aspect of Bernie was barely mentioned at all in 2016, and how its become such a huge topic this time around.  When he was winning districts like IL-3 in 2016, people wrongly assumed they wanted a revolution.  Really, they just wanted an alternative to the Clintons.

Sanders will still win IL 3 ironically in a very different coalition

[Green Line]

Like I said a million times in the past 4 years, Sanders was just the anti Hillary choice in 2016.  He won a lot of WCW voters who didn't care about his socialism etc., they just hated hillary.  Notice how the "socialist" aspect of Bernie was barely mentioned at all in 2016, and how its become such a huge topic this time around.  When he was winning districts like IL-3 in 2016, people wrongly assumed they wanted a revolution.  Really, they just wanted an alternative to the Clintons.

Sanders will still win IL 3 ironically in a very different coalition

Perhaps.  Hispanic turnout is awful down there.  I'd be surprised.

[Progressive Pessimist]

As I've pointed out many times before it wasn't actually that big to begin with and was boosted back in 2016 due to anti-Clinton sentiment and a larger abundance of caucuses.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Alot of the Latinos and Nothern Black vote was due to Booker and Harris voters that were looking to an alternative to Biden since the Ukraine scandal. Biden has to very careful about whom he picks as Veep this time which if course will be a female, so that Bernie Bros dont feel shut out of the process like last time. Kaine did nothing for the Bernie Bros to coalesce around Hilary, that why Gary Johnson got a great deal of support

[Indy Texas 🇺🇦🇵🇸]

Sanders was a blanket anti-Hillary protest vote for a large portion of his voters.

His success in 2016 is really a testament to just how awful of a politician Hillary Clinton is.

FWIW, I am a Sanders 2016/Non-Sanders 2020 voter in large part for that reason.

[darklordoftech]

Primary voting demographics tend to differ from one primary to another. Bush 41 won the 1980 Iowa Caucus but came in third in the 1988 Iowa Caucus. Compare Hillary’s 2008 demographics to her 2016 demographics.

[buritobr]

In the Super Tuesday exit polls in 2020, it was possible to see that no more than 60% of the voters who considered "very liberal" voted for Sanders. So, the other 40% of the "very liberals" voted for other candidates.

[John Dule]

I think we all may have underestimated how much of Sanders' support in 2016 was purely motivated by hatred for Hillary Clinton. It's the Kevin de Leon effect.

[IceSpear]

That, and Sanders jettisoned his opposition to open borders and promised to abolish ICE.

>implying Americans vote based on policy

Yeah, I'm sure a bunch of uneducated Dixiecrats in Oklahoma who have been too lazy/ignorant to change their party registration for decades despite voting straight ticket Republican every election did a deep dive on Vox articles explaining Bernie's new position on ICE and this changed their vote. LOL!  Remember that lady who enthusiastically caucused for Pete Buttigieg only to recoil upon learning he was gay and had a husband?

Americans do not vote based on policy. These people voted for Bernie in 2016 because he was not a woman, just as they voted for that woman in 2008 because she was not black.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, I'm sure a bunch of uneducated Dixiecrats in Oklahoma who have been too lazy/ignorant to change their party registration for decades despite voting straight ticket Republican every election did a deep dive on Vox articles explaining Bernie's new position on ICE and this changed their vote. LOL!  

It's an awful sign that anyone with enough of an interest in voting patterns to find this website, register an account, and start posting would hold such a narrow opinion of what constitutes an informed decision.

You sound like the proverbial Bernie Bro venting his frustrations with black voters in South Carolina or "wine moms" in the Virginia suburbs.

I think you missed the point of that remark, it was obviously sarcasm.

What's truly an awful sign is that you genuinely believe that the vast majority of voters make "informed decisions" despite the mountains of evidence to the contrary. Most Americans can't even name a Supreme Court justice, yet you expect me to believe a bunch of ignorant backwoods rubes voted based off Bernie's policy positions becoming more pro-immigration in comparison to 2016? Utterly laughable.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What's truly an awful sign is that you genuinely believe that the vast majority of voters make "informed decisions" despite the mountains of evidence to the contrary. Most Americans can't even name a Supreme Court justice, yet you expect me to believe a bunch of ignorant backwoods rubes voted based off Bernie's policy positions becoming more pro-immigration in comparison to 2016? Utterly laughable.

Why would a voter need to be able to name a Supreme Court justice to know something about their interests? It's an election, not a Sporcle quiz.

He’s right though. I highly doubt many WWC voters even knew about Sanders’ change in stance on immigration. I didn’t even know until reading this thread, and I can name all 100 senators!

It seems pretty clear at this point that Sanders’ success in rural areas in 2016 was mostly just due to the fact that his opponent was Hillary, and not much else.

[Badger]

One. Satisfaction in the economy's direction is much stronger then in 2016. Many once Sanders voters no longer see quite the same need to restructure the American economy from top to bottom, even if they still have underlying concerns over issues like Health Care, wage growth, housing and education costs, etc.

Two. His major primary opponent isn't Hillary Clinton. Enough said.

I'm putting this in order, so to a lesser degree I'll add number 3 , he dropped his opposition to open borders and called for abolishing ice. Mind you, this helped improve his standing among Hispanic voters apparently.

[ibagli]

Trump inspired a lot of his rural white ancestral Democratic voters to finally identify/register as Republicans.

Like, McCurtain County OK (randomly chosen because it's easy to find in the corner) had 2512 Democratic primary voters in 2016, and 1479 in 2020. Meanwhile, the Republican vote increased from 1360 to 1727 even though it was functionally uncontested.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hilary was the polarizing force that mobilized the Bernie surge.  Now, its Trump that mobilized the Bernie surge, but Biden doesnt bring out the polarization that Hilary or the Clinton's do.

But, the Bernie realization does show a danger sign for Dems, that Bernie's failure to win any Southern states, outside VA, shows, that despite Bidens huge wins in the South, those state are Trump states.

[The Ex-Factor]

Trump inspired a lot of his rural white ancestral Democratic voters to finally identify/register as Republicans.

Like, McCurtain County OK (randomly chosen because it's easy to find in the corner) had 2512 Democratic primary voters in 2016, and 1479 in 2020. Meanwhile, the Republican vote increased from 1360 to 1727 even though it was functionally uncontested.

Lol that county's voter registration in 2019 was 62.1% Democratic, 28.0% Republican, and 10% 'Others'.

Guess what that county's vote was in 2016? 16.8% Democratic and 80.7% Republican.

[RaphaelDLG]

I agree with all of the things the others have said - shifting stance on immigration, more candidates in the field/different matchup, no protest votes against Clinton

I would add, though, that Sanders two strongest demos - the young and the very liberal - are the same in both races.

[OneJ]

I think we all got what made the WWC largely leaving his coalition. As to why Sanders gained Hispanic voters one must remember that he was pretty competitive with Hillary in 2016 among this group and sometimes winning them outright in certain states. Latinos have a younger median age and probably less likely to pay attention to politics, both of which Bernie does well with. It also doesn't help that Biden's outreach to Latinos wasn't really great.

[Yank2133]

Americans do not vote based on policy. These people voted for Bernie in 2016 because he was not a woman, just as they voted for that woman in 2008 because she was not black.

Bingo.

As I said last week, for these voters it is White man>>>>>White woman>>>>>>>>>>Black man.

[Intell]

From articles and anecdotes;

The WWC that voted for Sanders are either Trump voters, non-voters and Clinton voters.

The ones that stayed with Clinton are now trending towards Biden.

The trump voters are either now just republicans or Trump Democrats (trump in presidential, democrats down-ballot, so they don't vote for Sanders. There is also a section of Sanders-Trump voters, who that would probably be their last vote for president, and they are now checked out of the political process after trump "disappointed them", and Sanders now seems "different' and more "woke". The trump democrats who turned back to the D fold are probably even split between Biden and Sanders.

The ones that were Sanders-non voters are clearly not as enthused about Sanders this time and are not voting at levels close to 2016.

I believe democrats will gain in WWC areas in 2020, but only because there are a subset of working class voters that voted for Trump but are now abstaining- resulting in democrats to do better- but no real vote switching in the presidential race.


Anecdote time:

So I know this guy who voted for Obama-Sanders-Trump. He had no preference between Sanders and Trump in 2016 but hated Clinton and the republican establishment. He was a registered democrat so he voted for Sanders hoping he would so he could select between two candidates that he broadly was ok with- who he voted for would have been a coin toss. Clinton won so he voted for Trump and democrats down ballot. By 2018 however he had given up with both parties and didn't vote in the midterms but he said he would've voted for democrats if he had to vote and in 2020 he isn't going voting for any candidate but if he has to vote he says he'll vote Trump-Downballot democrats.

I'd say that there are a lot of voters like these non-voters around, but if they were forced to pick they'd be republican all the way through rather than Trump-downballot democrats.