What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday?
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  What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday?		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: What state(s) are you paying the most attention to on Super Tuesday?  (Read 447 times)
Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« on: February 29, 2020, 10:36:01 PM »
Seems like some states (e.g., Massachusetts, Vermont, Alabama) are likely to lean heavily one way or another.  What states will be the most telling?
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Roll Roons
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« Reply #1 on: February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM »
« Edited: February 29, 2020, 10:46:29 PM by Roll Roons »
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.
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Politics Fan
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« Reply #2 on: February 29, 2020, 10:46:38 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily.
This plus Minnesota and Arkansas. Also will be watching the margins in California and who is viable there.
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SevenEleven
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« Reply #3 on: February 29, 2020, 10:51:34 PM »
California. Duh.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: February 29, 2020, 10:52:10 PM »
Cali, MA and TX
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #5 on: February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
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Storr
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« Reply #6 on: February 29, 2020, 11:03:58 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
The North Carolina Dems aren't 60% black. Plus NC has 10% of the population Hispanic.
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Gracile
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« Reply #7 on: February 29, 2020, 11:08:03 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?

He may be a slight favorite, but the composition of the primary electorate is much more unfavorable for him than South Carolina (more White and Hispanic Democrats, more urban, has a higher rate of educational attainment, etc). North Carolina is probably Biden's weakest Southern state and one I could see him losing.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #8 on: February 29, 2020, 11:08:10 PM »
Quote from: Storr on February 29, 2020, 11:03:58 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
The North Carolina Dems aren't 60% black. Plus NC has 10% of the population Hispanic.

What percent African American is it likely to be?  35-40?  Based on a quick google search it looks like it's about 22% black but I'm assuming it will be substantially higher for the Dem primary.  Though there are probably more liberal white Dems in NC than SC and there are a lot of colleges.
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Mr. Smith
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« Reply #9 on: February 29, 2020, 11:08:32 PM »
Texas, California, and Oklahoma.

And some interest in MN, to see if Bernie rolls over Klobuchar or not.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #10 on: February 29, 2020, 11:09:12 PM »
Quote from: Councilor Gracile on February 29, 2020, 11:08:03 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?

He may be a slight favorite, but the composition of the primary electorate is much more unfavorable for him than South Carolina (more White and Hispanic Democrats, more urban, has a higher rate of educational attainment, etc). North Carolina is probably Biden's weakest Southern state and one I could see him losing.

weaker than Arkansas?
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McNukes™ #NYCMMWasAHero
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« Reply #11 on: February 29, 2020, 11:10:45 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.
This. Bloomberg has to win a large number of states on Super Tuesday to ensure that he wins the race as a whole.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #12 on: February 29, 2020, 11:11:30 PM »
Virginia will start reporting early and will be an important test to see if moderates are rallying behind Biden and ditching Bloomberg - we won't really be able to see any polling on this beforehand so the first states will be telling. I think Texas is the most important state of the night, and I am also interested in Oklahoma, as that race could go several different ways and nothing would surprise me.
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #13 on: March 02, 2020, 11:14:33 PM »
Will Bloomberg win any state now?
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Rookie Yinzer
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #14 on: March 02, 2020, 11:20:42 PM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 11:08:10 PM
Quote from: Storr on February 29, 2020, 11:03:58 PM
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on February 29, 2020, 10:59:56 PM
Quote from: Roll Roons on February 29, 2020, 10:41:05 PM
Texas, Virginia and North Carolina easily. Those are also a key test of Bloomberg's strength and staying power.

Given the South Carolina results wouldn't Biden be the heavy favorite in North Carolina?
The North Carolina Dems aren't 60% black. Plus NC has 10% of the population Hispanic.

What percent African American is it likely to be?  35-40?  Based on a quick google search it looks like it's about 22% black but I'm assuming it will be substantially higher for the Dem primary.  Though there are probably more liberal white Dems in NC than SC and there are a lot of colleges.
32-33 percent

I’m interested in Texas, North Carolina, and Virginia the most.

Arkansas and Oklahoma next because I want to see how Bloomberg does in a state he Carpet bombed with ads and was generally ignored by the major candidates.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
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« Reply #15 on: March 02, 2020, 11:52:00 PM »
Besides my own:

1. Texas
2. Virginia
3. North Carolina
4. Massachusetts
5. Minnesota
6. Oklahoma
7. Arkansas
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Non Swing Voter
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #16 on: March 02, 2020, 11:53:11 PM »
Quote from: Interlocutor on March 02, 2020, 11:52:00 PM
Besides my own:

1. Texas
2. Virginia
3. North Carolina
4. Massachusetts
5. Minnesota
6. Oklahoma
7. Arkansas

which ones of those does Biden need to win to have a good night?
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morgankingsley
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #17 on: March 03, 2020, 05:09:43 AM »
The ones I would be most interested in are states like California, Texas, Tennesse and North Carolina. Those are ones that I feel like could gauge my overall opinion of a prediction
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