Will Biden/Harris carry all three counties in Delaware?

[Ancestral Republican]

In 2016, Clinton won New Castle, while Trump won Kent County narrowly and carried Sussex County easily. I think Biden will probably flip Kent and has a small chance of flipping Sussex due to Biden's home state advantage and a Democratic trend nationally.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

McCain won Sussex by 8 points in 2008 and it voted for Trump by over 20 points last time, so it's not flipping this year. 

[Alben Barkley]

Sussex County is doubtful. Not impossible, but a reach. Biden certainly has the best chance of winning it of any Democrat. He did win it in all of his Senate elections but his first in 1972. Including 2008 even as McCain won the county. I expect it will trend significantly Democratic from 2016, but will be a hard flip.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

McCain won Sussex by 8 points in 2008 and it voted for Trump by over 20 points last time, so it's not flipping this year. 

In fact, McCain won it by 20 points in 2008. The Democrat who has come the closest to carrying Sussex County since 1964 is Bill Clinton, who lost it by 13 points in 1996 (interestingly, it swung pretty heavily towards Clinton that year; Bush won it by 26 points in '92).

[Senator Spark]

No. They will lose Sussex county spectacularly. It's very conservative.

[mileslunn]

Kent County likely flips for Biden but not Sussex County.  Its too reliably GOP so even with it being his home state, I doubt it flips.  It probably tightens and I am guessing only goes from Trump by around 10 points, but doubt Biden wins it.

[brucejoel99]

It's all but impossible. Even when Biden was a Senator, he just barely won Sussex in 2008, & compared to the rest of the state, it's only become even more Republican since then. Trump would have to lose Delaware by 30+% for Biden to have a chance at winning Sussex, & that's not happening.

[Calthrina950]

McCain won Sussex by 8 points in 2008 and it voted for Trump by over 20 points last time, so it's not flipping this year. 

In fact, McCain won it by 20 points in 2008. The Democrat who has come the closest to carrying Sussex County since 1964 is Bill Clinton, who lost it by 13 points in 1996 (interestingly, it swung pretty heavily towards Clinton that year; Bush won it by 26 points in '92).

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Bill Clinton won Sussex County in 1996, carrying it and Kent with pluralities (he got 44.6% in Sussex County, compared to Bob Dole's 42.7%). That information can be found here: https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/datagraph.php?year=1996&fips=10&f=1&off=0&elect=0. Clinton, to date, is the last Democrat to win Sussex County. McCain won it 53.8-45.2% in 2008 (https://uselectionatlas.org/RESULTS/state.php?year=2008&fips=10&f=1&off=0&elect=0), an 8.6% margin.

As regards to the question in the thread, Biden will not carry Sussex County; it is too Republican to flip, and Tom Carper lost it in 2018 for the first time since his initial Senate race in 2000. Biden will easily flip Kent County however, and stands a chance of hitting 60% in Delaware, if things break right for him.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

McCain won Sussex by 8 points in 2008 and it voted for Trump by over 20 points last time, so it's not flipping this year. 

In fact, McCain won it by 20 points in 2008. The Democrat who has come the closest to carrying Sussex County since 1964 is Bill Clinton, who lost it by 13 points in 1996 (interestingly, it swung pretty heavily towards Clinton that year; Bush won it by 26 points in '92).

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Bill Clinton won Sussex County in 1996, carrying it and Kent with pluralities (he got 44.6% in Sussex County, compared to Bob Dole's 42.7%). Clinton, to date, is the last Democrat to win Sussex County. McCain won it 53.8-45.2% in 2008, an 8.6% margin.

As regards to the question in the thread, Biden will not carry Sussex County; it is too Republican to flip, and Tom Carper lost it in 2018 for the first time since his initial Senate race in 2000. Biden will easily flip Kent County however, and stands a chance of hitting 60% in Delaware, if things break right for him.

I'm sorry , I was looking at Sussex County, New Jersey.

[Xing]

He’ll very likely flip Kent, but there’s no way in hell he wins Sussex.

[Calthrina950]

McCain won Sussex by 8 points in 2008 and it voted for Trump by over 20 points last time, so it's not flipping this year. 

In fact, McCain won it by 20 points in 2008. The Democrat who has come the closest to carrying Sussex County since 1964 is Bill Clinton, who lost it by 13 points in 1996 (interestingly, it swung pretty heavily towards Clinton that year; Bush won it by 26 points in '92).

I am not sure where you are getting your numbers from. Bill Clinton won Sussex County in 1996, carrying it and Kent with pluralities (he got 44.6% in Sussex County, compared to Bob Dole's 42.7%). Clinton, to date, is the last Democrat to win Sussex County. McCain won it 53.8-45.2% in 2008, an 8.6% margin.

As regards to the question in the thread, Biden will not carry Sussex County; it is too Republican to flip, and Tom Carper lost it in 2018 for the first time since his initial Senate race in 2000. Biden will easily flip Kent County however, and stands a chance of hitting 60% in Delaware, if things break right for him.

I'm sorry , I was looking at Sussex County, New Jersey.

You're fine. It can be easy to confuse some of these counties. I certainly agree with you that Biden will not win Sussex County, New Jersey, although he has a strong chance of flipping neighboring Morris County (and I believe that he will).

[TDAS04]

No.

[Ancestral Republican]

Update: Biden flipped Kent, as expected. It went from Trump +5 to Biden +4.
Sussex didn't flip, but it went from Trump +22 to Trump +12. I am unsure how much of that was home state advantage or just part of the national repudiation of Trump. A sorta-similar nearby coastal county, Queen Anne's County in Maryland, only shifted three points less Republican from 2016 to 2020. So that implies home state advantage was indeed a factor.

[Calthrina950]

Update: Biden flipped Kent, as expected. It went from Trump +5 to Biden +4.
Sussex didn't flip, but it went from Trump +22 to Trump +12. I am unsure how much of that was home state advantage or just part of the national repudiation of Trump. A sorta-similar nearby coastal county, Queen Anne's County in Maryland, only shifted three points less Republican from 2016 to 2020. So that implies home state advantage was indeed a factor.

Biden still fell short of the 60% mark in Delaware, as did Chris Coons and John Carney. Delaware seems to have become more polarized and less flexible in recent years. The days of downballot Democrats winning the state with two-thirds or more of the vote are over.

[Schiff for Senate]

Update: Biden flipped Kent, as expected. It went from Trump +5 to Biden +4.
Sussex didn't flip, but it went from Trump +22 to Trump +12. I am unsure how much of that was home state advantage or just part of the national repudiation of Trump. A sorta-similar nearby coastal county, Queen Anne's County in Maryland, only shifted three points less Republican from 2016 to 2020. So that implies home state advantage was indeed a factor.

Well, the leftward swing in Maryland's Eastern Shore wasn't uniform. Talbot County, which borders Queen Anne's to the south, flipped out of the blue from a double-digit Trump win to a 0.5% Biden win, a leftward swing greater than the ones the could be found in both Kent and Sussex Counties. Of course, Sussex County swung leftward in part due to a homestate advantage, but the fact is that for some reason, parts of the Eastern Shore trended even more toward Biden. (In all fairness, though, Talbot was kind of the exception, since no other Eastern Shore county trended as far leftward, and two actually trended rightward, which makes me wonder what made Talbot in particular trend so hard to the left for no apparent reason.)