MA-Falchuk/DiNatale: Sanders 17, Warren 16, Klob 14, Buttigieg/Biden/Bloom 13

[ON Progressive]

The poll itself is in an excel file, so this picture from 538 will have to do:

[NOVA Green]

Unrated polling firm by 538 but ...

Numbers appear to have improved significantly for Sanders, and decrease from their last poll which showed:

Warren 23%    (-7%)
Biden 16%      (-3%)
Sanders 12%   (+5%)
Bloomberg 8% (+5%)
Klobuchar 7%  (+7%)
Buttigieg 6%    (+7%)
Steyer 4%       (-2%)
Patrick/Yang 3%

https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1225610383777550336

[Eraserhead]

Wow, that's some serious clustering.

So in theory Warren could still win but there's also an outside chance that she could come in sixth place! Do you really want to risk it, Liz?

[RI]

Second choices

For Warren:

36 Sanders
26 Klobuchar
15 Biden
14 Buttigieg
  1 Bloomberg

For Biden:

24 Klobuchar
19 Buttigieg
17 Bloomberg
15 Sanders
  7 Warren

For Sanders:

51 Warren
13 Biden
13 Klobuchar
  7 Bloomberg
  4 Buttigieg

For Klobuchar:

23 Buttigieg
21 Warren
19 Biden
13 Bloomberg
  8 Sanders

For Buttigieg:

27 Klobuchar
22 Warren
19 Bloomberg
15 Biden
14 Sanders

For Bloomberg:

32 Biden
28 Buttigieg
18 Klobuchar
  7 Sanders
  5 Warren

[Beet]

Warren would gain massively from taking down Sanders. It's a shame she doesn't attack him.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Warren would gain massively from taking down Sanders. It's a shame she doesn't attack him.

I'll just assume you were in a coma last month.

[Roblox]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

[Hollywood]

Warren would gain massively from taking down Sanders. It's a shame she doesn't attack him.

She has and is attacking Sanders, and it's been a disaster for her campaign.  

[cvparty]

so six candidates are within 4 points of each other...SOMEONE DROP OUT OMG

[Shadows]

If Warren attacks Sanders her 2nd choice numbers drop & the Bernie or bust crowd goes bigger & they go after her too.

Anyways would be fun to see Warren losing Massachusetts in Super Tuesday. She won't win 1 state this time. If this is the end she wants so be it. The numbers are only going to get worse as she will drop a few points & Bernie will go with more victories in Nevada & a good performance in South Carolina.

[NOVA Green]

Warren would gain massively from taking down Sanders. It's a shame she doesn't attack him.

She has and is attacking Sanders, and it's been a disaster for her campaign.  

It probably hurt her a bit, especially when NH gave her a bit of a hit, considering that expectations were that she would do well there.

In retrospect, perhaps this should not have been so surprising, since after all many NH DEM/IND Leaners aren't necessarily that crazy about political figures from MA (Which likely helped Amy & Pete)....

Warren by almost implying that she would prefer Amy to Bernie, may well have hurt her among some Progressive DEMs that were starting to warm to her that might have initially leaned towards Bernie.

Still, Liz may have some skin left in the game *IF* she can play well enough in NV (Where there are many demographics in Vegas in particular that might mirror some of the same places she needs to perform well in Cali).

It should be an interesting debate with Bloomberg on the stage, and obviously Bernie & Liz will likely take some jabs on the Billionaires funding the race, not to mention the fading "Centrists" (Biden/Pete/Amy) also going after Bloomberg....

Everybody wants a piece of Bloomberg's pie for different reasons, or at least take some chunks of meat out of him for positioning on campaign themes....

Stay tuned.....

[Roblox]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

Like, I'm just wondering how the coalitions break down here…Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016, or does he split it with the other candidates? Does he flip Boston with his more diverse coalition? Does Bloomberg do well in the wealthier suburban areas?

[RI]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

Like, I'm just wondering how the coalitions break down here…Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016, or does he split it with the other candidates? Does he flip Boston with his more diverse coalition? Does Bloomberg do well in the wealthier suburban areas?

Very small sample sizes, but in the poll Sanders leads in MA-01, MA-05, and MA-09; Klobuchar leads in MA-02 and MA-06; Bloomberg leads in MA-03; Warren leads in MA-04 and MA-07; and Biden leads in MA-08.

[NOVA Green]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

Like, I'm just wondering how the coalitions break down here…Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016, or does he split it with the other candidates? Does he flip Boston with his more diverse coalition? Does Bloomberg do well in the wealthier suburban areas?

The fun thing about Mass is we will get to see Township maps (closest things to precincts) rather than just County numbers....   

City Wards will be tougher....

Super Tuesday will be insane here, practically it would almost make sense to build up Atlas Teams by States for crowd-sourcing since there is so much to watch that it makes the IA and NH Caucus/Primary look like amateur hour....

[Fargobison]

It's time to close up shop Warren.  

I guess she did attack Bernie but she did so in the worst way possible. Plus she mirored her campaign so closely to Bernie the moderates never really get on board outside of maybe some of highly educated urban types. She could have been a compromise candiate but now she is just an afterthought.

[NOVA Green]

It's time to close up shop Warren.  

I guess she did attack Bernie but she did so in the worst way possible. Plus she mirored her campaign so closely to Bernie the moderates never really get on board outside of maybe some of highly educated urban types. She could have been a compromise candiate but now she is just an afterthought.

Me and my wife were just starting to really get to like her as a counter-weight alternative to Bernie (until the moment happened at the debate).

Policy positions ton of them and tons of them good and well thought out...

Still a path potentially, *if* some of the flavor of the Month candidates flame out (Amy/Pete/Bloomberg)....

[Mr. Morden]

Has there ever been another poll, in any state for any office, in which the top 6 collectively pulled in more than 85% of the vote, and managed to all be within 4 points of each other?

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

Like, I'm just wondering how the coalitions break down here…Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016, or does he split it with the other candidates? Does he flip Boston with his more diverse coalition? Does Bloomberg do well in the wealthier suburban areas?

The fun thing about Mass is we will get to see Township maps (closest things to precincts) rather than just County numbers....    

City Wards will be tougher....

Super Tuesday will be insane here, practically it would almost make sense to build up Atlas Teams by States for crowd-sourcing since there is so much to watch that it makes the IA and NH Caucus/Primary look like amateur hour....

I'd volunteer for CA, but the slow counting +potential omission of CD-wide results (in lieu of county results) makes things a little tricky there until the supplemental results come in at the end

[whale]

Hypothetically, what happens to delegate allocation if the vote is so split that no candidate gets to 15%?

[Mr. Morden]

Hypothetically, what happens to delegate allocation if the vote is so split that no candidate gets to 15%?

The Green Papers says this about that scenario:

https://www.thegreenpapers.com/P20/D-Math.phtml

If no Presidential preference reaches a 15% threshold, the threshold is the half the percentage of the vote received by the front-runner [Delegate Selection Rules for the 2020 Democratic National Convention - Rule 14.F.]

[NOVA Green]

Massachusetts is gonna be an incredibly fun state to watch on election night.

Like, I'm just wondering how the coalitions break down here…Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016, or does he split it with the other candidates? Does he flip Boston with his more diverse coalition? Does Bloomberg do well in the wealthier suburban areas?

The fun thing about Mass is we will get to see Township maps (closest things to precincts) rather than just County numbers....    

City Wards will be tougher....

Super Tuesday will be insane here, practically it would almost make sense to build up Atlas Teams by States for crowd-sourcing since there is so much to watch that it makes the IA and NH Caucus/Primary look like amateur hour....

I'd volunteer for CA, but the slow counting +potential omission of CD-wide results (in lieu of county results) makes things a little tricky there until the supplemental results come in at the end

Reality is that even if Bernie wins Cali in a landslide we most likely won't know something approximating the actual results until a Week in....

Cali '16 DEM PRIM results kept climbing up Sanders once the ED results came in.... took another Week or so for our Provo Comrades ballots to get counted after carefully vetted by sig, in what is arguably the best State when it comes to clean voting (Oregon is better imho, but maybe it's just a knee-jerk anti-Cali thing we got going on here in Downstate OR...    )

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The median household income of the Massachusetts Congressional districts correlates quite well to the 2016 primary results, much better than those results correlate to the state's normal political geography. The 4th, 5th, 6th, and 8th districts are richer than the statewide average and the rest poorer; Clinton won the 4th, 5th, 7th, and 8th districts and the rest went for Sanders. We'll see if there's anything resembling that pattern this time.

[ElectionsGuy]

A 6-way tie, how wonderful!

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

[Figueira]

Does Sanders dominate western MA like he did in 2016

Yes (at least Franklin/Hampshire/Berkshire counties). He'll probably do even better here relative to the whole state than he did in 2016.

It will be interesting to see how the suburbs break down. The Route 2 corridor should be good for Warren if she's still in the race. I wonder if Buttigieg can replicate his SE NH success in the area immediately over the border.