Ken Lucas to run in KY-4

[nclib]

From Politics1:

The Dems have managed to put another House seat into play for 2006. Former Congressman Ken Lucas (D) -- a 72-year-old "Blue Dog" Democrat -- announced his candidacy for the CD-4 seat held by freshman Congressman Geoff Davis (R). "Over the last year, I've grown concerned about the widespread public corruption news coming from Congress and the increased partisanship in the US House of Representatives. I'm disappointed that Geoff Davis has done nothing to separate himself from many of the figures involved in those scandals," Lucas explained. Lucas retired in 2004. Lucas and Davis previously faced-off in 2002, with Lucas winning the race. Now Davis will have the incumbency fundraising advantage, but this still promises to be a close, competitive election. Move this one into the "Leans GOP" column.

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Do you think Lucas has a good chance?

I'd still say it lean GOP unless the Dems have a very good year.

[Galactic Overlord]

Lucas is perhaps the only one who can make it a race.  He has a chance, but his incumbency edge is now gone, which probably takes him down a few percentage points.  It doesn't help that he only narrowly beat Davis in 2002 by a few points, and Davis didn't have a lot of funding to begin with back then, but of course now he'll have lots of cash on hand.  Lucas is also 72, which doesn't mean he can build a lot of seniority. 

This is also Jim Bunning territory, and he will probably help out if Davis gets in trouble.  Davis is still a conservative Republican, and in this kind of district, that's pretty solid footing.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There are a couple of factors that could swing it either way, with the main one being whether Davis's wretched first term is enough to kill off the usual bounce that incumbents facing their first re-election get... in addition to that it has to be remembered that this is a socially conservative (and then some) district rather than a district that is especially loyal to the Republican party (something which most of the district clearly isn't).
Lucas himself just happens to be the candidate than might be able to turn a potential threat of an upset into an actual defeat, nothing much more than that.
For now it's best to view it as a tossup and wait until the campaign develops (which is the best thing to do with competative races in general IMO).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

bandit should run.

[Virginian87]

bandit should run.

He wouldn't break 15%.

Lucas has an excellent chance to win, but I'm not going to call it a solid pickup slot yet. 

[Bandit3 the Worker]

bandit should run.

I actually considered it.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I live in this district, and trust me, Lucas is now heavily favored to win.

[minionofmidas]

bandit should run.

He wouldn't break 15%.

Lucas has an excellent chance to win, but I'm not going to call it a solid pickup slot yet. 

Eh...15% is not nothing.

[7,052,770]

Why wouldn't Lucas inherit his old seniority?

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Why wouldn't Lucas inherit his old seniority?

Because the rules apply differently for Democrats from how they apply for Republicans.