Party Districts which could change hands in 2006?

[Adlai Stevenson]

Apart from in open seats, such as Strickland's OH 6 or Nussle's in IA 1, does anyone have any idea of which incumbents could face a strong challenge or the prospect of defeat.  I had a few thoughts:

PA 6 - Jim Gerlach (R)
Another marginally Democratic District represented by a centrist Republican (2004 vote: John Kerry 51%, George W. Bush 48%) Gerlach has represented this seat since 2002 when he won it in a tough race.  The following year he faced Lois Murphy, accounted to be a rising star by Keystone Democrats.  Gerlach's margin stayed at 51%-49% in 2004 as Murphy lost by 6371 votes out of 314325.  Two years later, and Murphy is running again; perhaps the most important factor in this race, she has name recognition and strong support from the state Democratic Party.  However, Gerlach is a critical swing House vote, particularly on social issues - he was rated 50% Cons, 50% Libs by The Almanac of American Politics in 2005; and it could be that this centrism has allowed him to eke his narrow wins in the past in this centrist District.  No doubt, this is a top race for both parties in 2006.  Can the coattails of Democrats, Governor Ed Rendell running for re-election and State Treasurer Bob Casey, widely anticipated to defeat Senator Rick Santorum, lift Murphy to victory?

IN 9 - Mike Sodrel (R):
Sodrel appears to be endangered due to the fact that 2006 appears to be a Democratic year in Congressional elections; with this in mind contributing factors are also the narrowness of his 2004 win over Baron Hill where he benefited from George Bush's coattails (59%-40%) in the District; the fact that Hill is seeking a rematch and a background reason being that this seat has a tradition of Democratic representation going back to the renowned Lee Hamilton.

LA 3 – Charlie Melancon (D):
A freshman Congressman elected in a December 2004 primary by a vote of 50%-50%; Republicans could argue that the odds are stacked against him in his battle for re-election.  First of all, in the open primary, held in November 2004, the two Republican candidates amassed a vote of 55% to the two Democrats’ 45% - an indicator of the partisan divide of the Third District, which voted 58% to 41% for George W. Bush in 2004.  Melancon defeated the son of a long time Republican incumbent largely due to a bitter in-party squabble; he won in the run off by 569 votes.  The most visible issue, albeit one with no direct connexion to Melancon is that despite the fact that the national atmosphere appears to lean Democrat in 2006, in Louisiana, the party could face decimation in terms of representation and support.  The devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina on New Orleans, the organ of Democratic support in this conservative Southern state, could rob the party of its’ springboard and base as the city in terms of population has effectively ceased to exist.  Some argue the same could be said of the Democrat’s constituency if that is the case.  Louisiana voters have a reason to be angry at President Bush for the stalled federal response to Katrina’s effects, but all politics is local, and Democratic Governor Kathleen Blanco also bears the brunt of voter anger.  Although he has been critical of the federal response to Katrina, Melancon will not escape its potential stigma.  Melancon is not the only vulnerable politician with a ‘D’ beside his name, Senator Mary Landrieu could well be in trouble in 2008.  Melancon is a conservative Democrat, and in recent years it has not proved impossible for party candidates like him to win close races.  The results of the 2006 primary will be an indicator of the mindset of Louisiana voters.

NM 1 - Heather Wilson (R)
Heather Wilson represents a marginal District in Congress; John Kerry won here in 2004 by 51%-48%.  Ever since her election in 1998, Wilson has won in closely decided contests.  One point in arguing for her survival could be that in the past she has not faced top-tier Democratic challengers.  Things will be different in 2006, however, as term-limited New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid has announced that she is running.  Wilson has been a prime recent Democratic target, and, in a District that does lean towards the party of her opponents' in what is shaping up to be a negative year for Republicans she could well lose.

TX 22 - Tom Delay (R):
If Delay manages to survive a primary challenge, then this seat, which voted 64%-36% for George W. Bush over John Kerry, could be removed from the Democratic radar.  If, however, Delay is the Republican candidate on the ballot here in November, then he would appear to be in trouble. Although Bush saw off Kerry here in 2004, his percentage decreased 3 points, a fact seemingly insignificant note until one takes into account his excellent improved performance in the Lone Star State in 2004, where he managed to increase his margin over 2000 everywhere except here.  Similarly, Delay also found himself re-elected by the solid though disappointing vote of 55%-41%, 9% behind Bush and an 8% drop from his 2002 margin; against a challenger who spent only $685,935 to his $3,143,559.  This year, the embattled former House Majority Leader faces a challenge from a well known Democrat, former Congressman Nick Lampson, who was defeated due to Delay's masterful Republican-biased redistricting of the Texas delegation in 2004.  Lampson's is representative of the Democratic vitriol and venom attached to Delay, and the opposition party would doubtless enjoy scoring a coup in Bush's backyard by electing a Democrat in this Republican stronghold within the Republican stronghold of Texas.

OH 18 - Bob Ney (R)
Ney could well become the Democratic poster boy for the Jack Abramoff scandal, which appears to be firmly associated in the public's mind (somewhat unfairly) as representative Republican sleaze and dirt in D.C. Ney held this seat 66%-34% in 2004 as Bush was carrying it 57%-43%. However, the plot thickens as Ney's continued involvement in the Abramoff hearings mean he could be indicted by the time of the election.  Determined not to concede defeat to his demons, financial and political, Ney is insisting that he will be a candidate in a campaign the GOP could well have done without.  A primary challenge could well remove him from the scene, as it appears the Ohio Republican party would prefer.  This District is not uber-Republican like IN 8, TX 22 and OH 2 or even to a lesser extent IN 9, but Ney has had some close run campaigns here until he was redistricted into a gerrymandered area.  Scandal has proven potential to be a force that undoes party allegiance in a District, ala Dan Rostenkowski's 1994 loss in a Chicago Cook County District that in 2004 backed John Kerry over George W. Bush by 84%-16%.  It may be a little far-fetched, but Ney is certainly the best emblematic symptom of the elections of 1994 and Rostenkowski.

IN 8 - John Hostettler (R):
Hostettler may not be an obvious choice, but he appears to be vulnerable despite his District's strong GOP slant (Bush by 62%-38%).  He won re-election in 2004 by 53%-45%, his highest margin in the District to date but obviously not an encouraging performance as individual House members usually outperform the Presidential nominee who carries their District, as a rule.  One could imagine Hostettler becoming a Democratic target if the minority party becomes confident of success in November.  However, in a midterm year with Bush low in the polls and public confidence in Republican Washington at an all time low, he could become a victim of voter incumbent fatigue.

OH 2 - Jean Schmidt (R)
Jean Schmidt is a spiky figure nationally due to her verbal berating of John Murtha which caused outrage on the House of Representatives floor.  Schmidt only narrowly held the safest Republican District in Ohio (64%-36% for Bush) by 51%-48% against Paul Hackett, a Trumanesque-tongued Iraq War veteran whose dynamism and pit-bull attacks on Bush catapulted him to stardom status in the Democratic Party and launched him as a state-wide candidate for the Senate in Ohio.  Many argue that this District is too Republican for Democrats to waste much time or effort in, in the face of the more competitive campaigns elsewhere.  Nevertheless, Schmidt could face a primary challenge, an indicator of her potential vulnerability come November.

First of all, the 90% of names on this list do not all have ‘R’s on them due to partisanship, merely because it appears that Republicans have more potentially endangered incumbents in an unfavourable election.  However, if anyone thinks there are other Democrats I have not mentioned please suggest them.  People may also disagree with this list, again come up with your own.  These are purely based on recent observation coupled with a recent obsession with The Almanac of American Politics.

Apart from OH 6 and IA 1, I also think that Hyde and Kennedy's open sea in IL 6 and MN 6 could be a potential pickup for Democrats or at least a competitive race.  Suggestions upon the likely outcomes of these open seat races would be welcome also.  Thanks.

[Dave from Michigan]

there are really no seats that will change in Michigan, unless the democrats have a very good year even then I doubt any seats would change.   The 2 closest seats that are most likely to switch are MI-11 (McCotter) and MI-9  (Knollenberg) but these are long shots.

[tarheel-leftist85]

NC-11

Jean Schmidt ain't goin' anywhere.

[Moooooo]

McEwen just may defeat Schmidt in the primary.

[jimrtex]

Apart from in open seats, such as Strickland's OH 6 or Nussle's in IA 1, does anyone have any idea of which incumbents could face a strong challenge or the prospect of defeat.

Ignoring, the subject.

Texas 28 - Henry Cuellar (D)

A rerun of the bitter (post-redistricting) primary of 2004, where Cuellar defeated incumbent Ciro Rodriguez, gaining 84% of the vote in his home county of Webb (Laredo), versus 80% for Rodriguez in his home county of Bexar (San Antonio).

[socaldem]

McEwen just may defeat Schmidt in the primary.

Or Tom Brinkman for that matter, who doesn't have McEwan's baggage from the banking scandal way back in the 90s and has Coburn-like conservative creds....

[socaldem]

Apart from in open seats, such as Strickland's OH 6 or Nussle's in IA 1, does anyone have any idea of which incumbents could face a strong challenge or the prospect of defeat.

Ignoring, the subject.

Texas 28 - Henry Cuellar (D)

A rerun of the bitter (post-redistricting) primary of 2004, where Cuellar defeated incumbent Ciro Rodriguez, gaining 84% of the vote in his home county of Webb (Laredo), versus 80% for Rodriguez in his home county of Bexar (San Antonio).

Any chance that, if Cuellar loses the primary, he may switch parties... since he's supported by the cfg and has supported President Bush's campaigns, he'd be a better fit crossing the aisle, anyway...

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Maybe CA-11. The Republican, Pombo is crazy anti-environment, and yet he represents part of the bay area.

One race that should be interesting, NY-29. It's the most Republican district in NY, but the Republican is a wife-beater, and the Democrat is a former Republican who was in the military for 24 years.

[jimrtex]

Apart from in open seats, such as Strickland's OH 6 or Nussle's in IA 1, does anyone have any idea of which incumbents could face a strong challenge or the prospect of defeat.

Ignoring, the subject.

Texas 28 - Henry Cuellar (D)

A rerun of the bitter (post-redistricting) primary of 2004, where Cuellar defeated incumbent Ciro Rodriguez, gaining 84% of the vote in his home county of Webb (Laredo), versus 80% for Rodriguez in his home county of Bexar (San Antonio).

Any chance that, if Cuellar loses the primary, he may switch parties... since he's supported by the cfg and has supported President Bush's campaigns, he'd be a better fit crossing the aisle, anyway...

Maybe, but in Texas you can't switch parties after the primary, so it would be in order to run as a Republican in the future, either for Congress or statewide.   It would make more sense to switch after the election.  The Republican in 2004 had a credible showing (100K to 60K) against Cuellar.

I was just looking at the election returns for 2004.  Webb County had 15.3K votes in the primary, and 17.5K votes in the general.  Bexar County had 13.6K in the primary and 45.1K in the general.  Guadeloupe County went from 2.2K to 37.7K (but it was 2:1 GOP), and there were other huge jumps in part of the district, and no change in the others.  Zapata County declined from 3.2K to 2.8K.  In 2004, the presidential race had been decided by the time of the primary, and there were no statewide races on the Democratic ballot.  Cuellar may need Republicans to turn out for the Democratic primary.

[WMS]

NM 1 - Heather Wilson (R)
Heather Wilson represents a marginal District in Congress; John Kerry won here in 2004 by 51%-48%.  Ever since her election in 1998, Wilson has won in closely decided contests.  One point in arguing for her survival could be that in the past she has not faced top-tier Democratic challengers.  Things will be different in 2006, however, as term-limited New Mexico Attorney General Patricia Madrid has announced that she is running.  Wilson has been a prime recent Democratic target, and, in a District that does lean towards the party of her opponents' in what is shaping up to be a negative year for Republicans she could well lose.

From www.joemonahan.com (1/24/06):

And finally, in the nonpartisan spirit of New Mexico's #1 political blog, I also recently chatted up Heather Brewer who has taken on press duties for Dem congressional hopeful Patsy Madrid. Heather is fresh from the ABQ mayoral campaign of Eric Griego, who lost, but got a nice consolation job with Big Bill.
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So, Madrid's picked up someone from virulently anti-West Side left-winger Eric Griego's campaign? Yeah, that'll help her win votes there - and as it's a swing district with a lot of votes*, Dems should care. Potential storm cloud on the horizon...

*Also from www.joemonahan.com (12/12/2005):

And how about the power of ABQ's Westside? The numbers crunchers say nearly 10 percent of the statewide vote next year will come from there. Expect more, not less, goodies for the booming area.
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Fear us, you left-libertarian Nob Hill bastards! Bwahahaha!

This exercise in local pride has been brought to you by WMS.