WP/Ipsos: Biden strong favorite among black adults, Sanders 2nd

[Eraserhead]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

The exit polls were wrong: pure and simple. Precinct analysis and county-by-county assessments both show this. I have no idea why there was such a comprehensive failure of assessing black voting preferences in the 2016 Democratic primary on a national level, but it's clear.

Particularly in the South, it's obvious that the exit polls overestimated the share of white voters in most states. In GA (where turnout is recorded by race by the SoS), the exit polls showed a 51% black and 38% white electorate: the SoS recorded a 59% black and 30% white electorate. AL as you mentioned is another example: supposedly Sanders got 38% of the white vote, yet didn't crack that number in any county but one (Blount, which had 1,000 voters, where he got 38.6%)! Even in the far northern counties where the vast majority of Democratic voters are white, Sanders didn't clear that figure. If Sanders got 38% in AL among whites, then he would have won (or came very close) to carrying several northern counties. The exit poll data suggests that Bernie should have won most "northern counties" in the Deep South & a ton in the Mid South, yet...

In short, there was a systematic failure in exit polling during the '16 Dem primary that - at least in mathematical terms - replaced actual black Sanders voters with non-existent white Sanders voters (which, when experts revised the exit polls to "make sense" according to their expectations, probably was the most logical choice given racial polarization - but nevertheless wrong).

Sanders got 20% of the black vote across the Confederacy and 40% elsewhere, averaging out to ~30% overall.

That's interesting. I have a very hard time believing that his share of the black vote was that close to his overall share of the primary vote (43%) but admittedly I haven't looked into this as deeply as you.

That said, if you're wondering why people would believe his share of the black vote was that low... it's literally what all of the exit polling suggests it was.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden isn't gonna be nominated, the Black support will crack once Bernie start winning and Blacks in the South associate Biden with Obama. This poll means nothing

[DrScholl]

What happens in other states isn't going to influence the black vote. Sanders is just not popular among black voters as 2016 demonstrated. He went on television claiming that he lost southern states in the primary because of the confederacy and his supporters made memes saying that if black people didn't exist Bernie would be President.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

What happens in other states isn't going to influence the black vote. Sanders is just not popular among black voters as 2016 demonstrated. He went on television claiming that he lost southern states in the primary because of the confederacy and his supporters made memes saying that if black people didn't exist Bernie would be President.

Sanders is popular among Northern blacks, since Harris, Bioker and Jealous havent endorsed Biden. Southern Blacks are a different breed and they associate Biden with Obama.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

Warren should prepare to primary Biden in 2024 if he's elected president. If not Warren, than at least Yang or Gabbard.

Lol there is no way Gabbard would beat President Biden in a primary.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Warren is taking support from Bernie, she will get out the race at some point

Warren should prepare to primary Biden in 2024 if he's elected president. If not Warren, than at least Yang or Gabbard.

Lol there is no way Gabbard would beat President Biden in a primary.

Did i ever say that?

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

The exit polls were wrong: pure and simple. Precinct analysis and county-by-county assessments both show this. I have no idea why there was such a comprehensive failure of assessing black voting preferences in the 2016 Democratic primary on a national level, but it's clear.

Particularly in the South, it's obvious that the exit polls overestimated the share of white voters in most states. In GA (where turnout is recorded by race by the SoS), the exit polls showed a 51% black and 38% white electorate: the SoS recorded a 59% black and 30% white electorate. AL as you mentioned is another example: supposedly Sanders got 38% of the white vote, yet didn't crack that number in any county but one (Blount, which had 1,000 voters, where he got 38.6%)! Even in the far northern counties where the vast majority of Democratic voters are white, Sanders didn't clear that figure. If Sanders got 38% in AL among whites, then he would have won (or came very close) to carrying several northern counties. The exit poll data suggests that Bernie should have won most "northern counties" in the Deep South & a ton in the Mid South, yet...

In short, there was a systematic failure in exit polling during the '16 Dem primary that - at least in mathematical terms - replaced actual black Sanders voters with non-existent white Sanders voters (which, when experts revised the exit polls to "make sense" according to their expectations, probably was the most logical choice given racial polarization - but nevertheless wrong).

Sanders got 20% of the black vote across the Confederacy and 40% elsewhere, averaging out to ~30% overall.

That's interesting. I have a very hard time believing that his share of the black vote was that close to his overall share of the primary vote (43%) but admittedly I haven't looked into this as deeply as you.

That said, if you're wondering why people would believe his share of the black vote was that low... it's literally what all of the exit polling suggests it was.

Exit polls for Virginia showed 16% for Bernie.   Looking at some highly black precinct and county results that seems about right to me, even considering that blacks in majority white areas may be somewhat more pro-Bernie.

[Adam Griffin]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

The exit polls were wrong: pure and simple. Precinct analysis and county-by-county assessments both show this. I have no idea why there was such a comprehensive failure of assessing black voting preferences in the 2016 Democratic primary on a national level, but it's clear.

Particularly in the South, it's obvious that the exit polls overestimated the share of white voters in most states. In GA (where turnout is recorded by race by the SoS), the exit polls showed a 51% black and 38% white electorate: the SoS recorded a 59% black and 30% white electorate. AL as you mentioned is another example: supposedly Sanders got 38% of the white vote, yet didn't crack that number in any county but one (Blount, which had 1,000 voters, where he got 38.6%)! Even in the far northern counties where the vast majority of Democratic voters are white, Sanders didn't clear that figure. If Sanders got 38% in AL among whites, then he would have won (or came very close) to carrying several northern counties. The exit poll data suggests that Bernie should have won most "northern counties" in the Deep South & a ton in the Mid South, yet...

In short, there was a systematic failure in exit polling during the '16 Dem primary that - at least in mathematical terms - replaced actual black Sanders voters with non-existent white Sanders voters (which, when experts revised the exit polls to "make sense" according to their expectations, probably was the most logical choice given racial polarization - but nevertheless wrong).

Sanders got 20% of the black vote across the Confederacy and 40% elsewhere, averaging out to ~30% overall.

That's interesting. I have a very hard time believing that his share of the black vote was that close to his overall share of the primary vote (43%) but admittedly I haven't looked into this as deeply as you.

That said, if you're wondering why people would believe his share of the black vote was that low... it's literally what all of the exit polling suggests it was.

Exit polls for Virginia showed 16% for Bernie.   Looking at some highly black precinct and county results that seems about right to me, even considering that blacks in majority white areas may be somewhat more pro-Bernie.

I imagine the (presumed or actual) racial gap in VA wasn't anywhere nearly as large as it was in most Southern states, in part because of the composition of white Democrats who live in VA. If anything, the numbers shown in exit polls do seem to resemble actual results in Black Belt/heavily-black rural counties, but that's a pretty small share of actual black voters throughout most of the South. Most black Southerners don't live in such areas; while throughout much of the (geographic South where black voters aren't a super-minority) Bernie got 15% or less of the black vote, in urban areas and in a handful of states (see: NC), he easily received 20-25% of the black vote. For what it's worth, the exit polls didn't miss the mark in every Southern state by the same amount with respect to white vote share for Bernie. There are also significant age differences across the South by county for black voters that must be considered (for instance, Jefferson County, TX does not at all resemble Henry County, GA in terms of median age by race).

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Replicating two-thirds of his 2016 black share (I'm not sure how/why black Sanders support continues to get revised down more and more as time progresses; he won 28-32% in 2016 nationwide) while winning half or less among voters overall is pretty good, but...

Where are you getting that from?

Exits are right here:

https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/primaries/polls

There's no way he was even close to 28%-32% nationwide. He got blown out of the water in the south (6% in Alabama!) and even in a state like New York he only got 25%. He got 31% in Wisconsin, that was his best state with an exit poll.

The exit polls were wrong: pure and simple. Precinct analysis and county-by-county assessments both show this. I have no idea why there was such a comprehensive failure of assessing black voting preferences in the 2016 Democratic primary on a national level, but it's clear.

Particularly in the South, it's obvious that the exit polls overestimated the share of white voters in most states. In GA (where turnout is recorded by race by the SoS), the exit polls showed a 51% black and 38% white electorate: the SoS recorded a 59% black and 30% white electorate. AL as you mentioned is another example: supposedly Sanders got 38% of the white vote, yet didn't crack that number in any county but one (Blount, which had 1,000 voters, where he got 38.6%)! Even in the far northern counties where the vast majority of Democratic voters are white, Sanders didn't clear that figure. If Sanders got 38% in AL among whites, then he would have won (or came very close) to carrying several northern counties. The exit poll data suggests that Bernie should have won most "northern counties" in the Deep South & a ton in the Mid South, yet...

In short, there was a systematic failure in exit polling during the '16 Dem primary that - at least in mathematical terms - replaced actual black Sanders voters with non-existent white Sanders voters (which, when experts revised the exit polls to "make sense" according to their expectations, probably was the most logical choice given racial polarization - but nevertheless wrong).

Sanders got 20% of the black vote across the Confederacy and 40% elsewhere, averaging out to ~30% overall.

That's interesting. I have a very hard time believing that his share of the black vote was that close to his overall share of the primary vote (43%) but admittedly I haven't looked into this as deeply as you.

That said, if you're wondering why people would believe his share of the black vote was that low... it's literally what all of the exit polling suggests it was.

Exit polls for Virginia showed 16% for Bernie.   Looking at some highly black precinct and county results that seems about right to me, even considering that blacks in majority white areas may be somewhat more pro-Bernie.

I imagine the (presumed or actual) racial gap in VA wasn't anywhere nearly as large as it was in most Southern states, in part because of the composition of white Democrats who live in VA. If anything, the numbers shown in exit polls do seem to resemble actual results in Black Belt/heavily-black rural counties, but that's a pretty small share of actual black voters throughout most of the South. Most black Southerners don't live in such areas; while throughout much of the (geographic South where black voters aren't a super-minority) Bernie got 15% or less of the black vote, in urban areas and in a handful of states (see: NC), he easily received 20-25% of the black vote. For what it's worth, the exit polls didn't miss the mark in every Southern state by the same amount with respect to white vote share for Bernie. There are also significant age differences across the South by county for black voters that must be considered (for instance, Jefferson County, TX does not at all resemble Henry County, GA in terms of median age by race).

here are a few urban precincts in my part of the state:

Park Place, Norfolk: abt 80% black, 22% Sanders
Brambleton, Norfolk  (includes Norfolk State): abt 85% black, 22% Sanders
Berkeley, Norfolk: abt 90% black, 11% Sanders
East Hampton (includes Hampton University), Hampton: abt 90% black, 33% Sanders
JFK Center precinct, Portsmouth: abt 95% black, 8% Sanders