IA-CNN/DMR: Sanders 20%, Warren 17%, Buttigieg 16%, Biden 15%

[Mr. Morden]

Great news! Ideally, Biden doesn't hit the 15% and then finishes 4th or 5th somehow in New Hampshire. With the surge Steyer got in South Carolina, somehow win there, then Biden will have to dropout. Right now, if things playout nicely you'll get a Sanders/Warren ticket, it will upset people about the diversity part but I think Sanders/Warren absolutely crush Trump/Pence in the General Election. The Democratic Party will be energised.

Just for those who don't know, the 15% threshold is regionalized.  You can get 10% and still get delegates if you have stronger support in certain precincts.

To be clear, by "delegates" here, you mean "state delegate equivalents", not delegates to the DNC.  To get delegates to the DNC, you do actually need 15% either statewide or in a given congressional district.

Also, it still remains to be seen if the media will focus as much on state delegate equivalents this time, since the Iowa Dems will also now release the %age breakdown of initial preferences.

They'll probably focus on whatever aspect of it that Sanders loses or does worse on.

I feel like there's more potential for accusations of "rigging" to be leveled against the Iowa Democratic Party.  Because while they've promised to to release the initial preference #s, I don't know if they've actually promised to release them at the same pace as they're releasing the state delegate equivalent #s.  What if they release the state delegate equivalent #s at the same pace they've always done, but dump the initial preference #s all at once at like 3am?  The news networks would have nothing to work with all night except the state delegate equivalent #s, so that's what they'd focus on.  Whereas if the Iowa Dems released the initial preference popular vote right away, then the media would very likely focus on that instead.

I guess anyone who's suspicious of foul play should pressure the Iowa Dems to be more explicit about how they plan to handle this before caucus day.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This pic is brilliant:

It is really funny how they have Klobuchar and Yang sheepishly running behind the sled.

[Continential]

Great result for Bernie. Also very nice for progressives to have Warren 2nd (maybe she is not quite dead yet). Biden 4th is really bad for him, and if Buttigieg can't win IA, he is not going to win anywhere.

MissScarlett will be sad, I guess Klobuchar is done. No Klobmentum.

Not really concerned to be honest because all her vote is in rural counties. You need 15% in a precinct to qualify or your votes get scattered and not every candidate is going to break the threshold. It will be scattered but hey she was the first democrat I'd ever vote for so maybe thats her problem. If the democrats want to continue the division then fine!

Pete has spent 25m to finish 3rd is bad. Look democrats have a choice vote for a moderate that gets stuff done or you get Trump. Really simple.

Whats sad is the democratic party would reject Kirsten Sinema, Elissa Slotkin, Sherrod Brown so the fool is the party electorate. Socialism will never be allowed in America and you kids can sit on twitter all day long. You will never get medicare for all and you will never get free college. NEVER

Are you okay?

I'm telling you the truth because I'm an adult. The people who are older than 40 that would never vote for a Socialist?

I just vote for Trump. Really simple.

My dad's over 40 and he'd vote for almost anyone over Trump, even a actual Socialist, not what you think is a Socialist.

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden really comes in 4th, it'll be hard to run on the electability argument any longer. He'd do poorly in NH as well and most likely underperform in NV and SC. Could be a downward spiral for him. I think his biggest problem is enthusiasm or more precisely the lack thereof.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No one wants Biden except the Establishment that endorsed Hilary, as the annointed one and she lost just like Biden will

[ElectionsGuy]

If Biden really comes in 4th, it'll be hard to run on the electability argument any longer. He'd do poorly in NH as well and most likely underperform in NV and SC. Could be a downward spiral for him. I think his biggest problem is enthusiasm or more precisely the lack thereof.

I don't get that logic though. How does losing a primary or two against other Democrats when the field is split with 15-30% of the vote to each candidate prove to people he wouldn't be electable against Trump?

[Sir Mohamed]

If Biden really comes in 4th, it'll be hard to run on the electability argument any longer. He'd do poorly in NH as well and most likely underperform in NV and SC. Could be a downward spiral for him. I think his biggest problem is enthusiasm or more precisely the lack thereof.

I don't get that logic though. How does losing a primary or two against other Democrats when the field is split with 15-30% of the vote to each candidate prove to people he wouldn't be electable against Trump?

I'm not saying Biden isn't electable against Trump, but coming in 3rd and 4th in IA and NH would be a sign that he struggles to excite the electorate. He's a former VP to a popular Dem prez and can't even get 1 in 5 IA Dems to vote for him? Biggest problem would be weak showings in following states due to a lack of momentum. Especially if Sanders will all these states rather than Butti and Sanders or Warren. We'll see, maybe reality proves me wrong.

[Badger]

Can we kindly rein back the wild pronouncements along the lines of Sanders is titanium, Biden is finished, Etc? This poll shows the top four candidates all packed together within a five point spread! Sure, I'd rather be Sanders than buying based on this poll, but even their numbers are barely outside margin of error.

Iowa is still anybody's ballgame at this point.

[ProudModerate2]

Ignoring anyone who is over reacting to this poll.

Sanders is in the best position now, slightly, because he has the most solid base. Other than that this poll shows nothing other than a 4 way race considering the MoE of the poll and the significant amount still undecided or not fully committed to their candidate.

Also remember the 15% threshold is at the precinct level so even if you're below that state wide you can still be awarded delegates by performing well in certain locations.

Why is everyone so dramatic?

Can we kindly rein back the wild pronouncements along the lines of Sanders is titanium, Biden is finished, Etc? This poll shows the top four candidates all packed together within a five point spread! Sure, I'd rather be Sanders than buying based on this poll, but even their numbers are barely outside margin of error.

Iowa is still anybody's ballgame at this point.

This and this.