Portuguese Presidential Elections in January

[Bono]

Thanks Bono.

(Wait...before 1995 there were no socialist PMs?)

Er, there were plenty of socialist governments from 1976 to 1986.
But you just asked the last 20 years.

[minionofmidas]

Thanks Bono.

(Wait...before 1995 there were no socialist PMs?)

Er, there were plenty of socialist governments from 1976 to 1986.
But you just asked the last 20 years.

OK Thanks.

[Bono]

New Polls:

Intercampus poll 20-24/11

Cavaco 50%
Alegre 15.2%
Soares 12.7%
Jerónimo 5.1%
Louçã 4.1%
Undecided/Non respondents 12.9%

[Bono]

Aximage Poll 30/11 to 2/12

Cavaco 50,9%
Soares 14.7%
Alegre 12.5%
Jerónimo 5.1%
Louçã 4.1%
Others 0%
Undecided/Non respondents 12.7%

[Bono]

There was a unoff poll, i don't really remember the figures, but it gave alegre higher figures than soares against cavaco, but cavaco still won.

[Bono]

There was a unoff poll, i don't really remember the figures, but it gave alegre higher figures than soares against cavaco, but cavaco still won.

Found it. It's this last Aximage poll:
Cavaco 58,4%
Alegre 41.6%

Cavaco 62,9%
Soares 37.1%

[Bono]

Er, I kinda had forgotten about this, so I missed a lot of polls, but I'm gonna post the two most recent ones.
Election's sunday btw.

Marktest Poll 12-15/1
Cavaco 42,9%
Alegre 14.4%
Soares 10.3%
Louçã 5.2%
Jerónimo 5%
Others 0.6%
Undecided/Non respondents 15.5%
Invalid Votes 3,6%
Not Voting 2,5%

Aximage Poll 15-16/1

Cavaco 51,1%
Alegre 13.8%
Soares 10.9%
Jerónimo 6,2%
Louçã 5.2%
Others 0.8%
Undecided/Nonrespondent 12,1%

[Democratic Hawk]

Which of those dudes are to your liking, Bono ?

Dave

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'll assume Cavaco as he's the only center-rightist running.

Alegre would get my vote.

[Bono]

Which of those dudes are to your liking, Bono ?

Dave

They're all horrible, but cavaco is the least bad.
Not that I support him or anything, I wouldn't probably vote even if I was of voting age.

[Bono]

30 minutes till exit polls.

[Bono]

Exit Poll Results

http://195.23.69.201/presidenciais2006

Cavaco 50.4 - 54.6
Alegre 17.7 - 21.5
Soares 12.5 - 16.3
Jerónimo 6.4 - 8.6
Louçã 4.1 - 6.3

[minionofmidas]

With 4258 out of 4260 freguesias counted, the result is turnout 62.6%
Cavaco Silva 50.6%
Alegre 20.7%
Soares 14.3%
Sousa 8.6%
Louca 5.3%
Pereira (who?) 0.4%

And the official website now officially states that the remaining two places will not be counted.

[minionofmidas]

Regional results, roughly N(e) to S(w)

Braganca
151K registered voters
all 299 counted
turnout 54%
Cavaco 67%
Alegre 16%
Soares 11%

Vila Real
222K registered voters
267 out of 268
turnout 55%
Cavaco 65%
Alegre 15%
Soares 14%

Viana do Castelo
235K registered voters
all 290
turnout 59%
Cavaco 61%
Alegre 16%
Soares 14%

Braga
698K registered voters
514 out of 515
turnout 68%
Cavaco 57%
Alegre 16%
Soares 16%
Sousa 6%

Porto
1,230 mio registered voters
All 383
turnout 66%
Cavaco 51%
Alegre 18%
Soares 18%
Alegre 18%
Sousa 7%
Louca 6%

Guarda
170K registered voters
all 336
turnout 58%
Cavaco 60%
Alegre 20%
Soares 12%

Viseu
359K registered voters
all 372
turnout 59%
Cavaco 66%
Alegre 16%
Soares 11%

Aveiro
597K registered voters
all 208
turnout 65%
Cavaco 60%
Alegre 18%
Soares 14%

Coimbra
378K registered voters
all 209
turnout 62%
Cavaco 49%
Alegre 27%
Soares 13%
Sousa 6%

Castelo Branco
189K registered voters
all 160
turnout 61%
Cavaco 50%
Alegre 23%
Soares 16%
Sousa 6%

Leiria
388K registered voters
all 148
turnout 64%
Cavaco 62%
Alegre 17%
Soares 10%
Sousa 5%

Santarem
389K registered voters
all 193
turnout 63%
Cavaco 48%
Alegre 23%
Soares 13%
Sousa 10%
Louca 6%

Lisboa
1,681K registered voters
all 226
turnout 64%
Cavaco 45%
Alegre 24%
Soares 14%
Sousa 11%
Louca 6%

Setubal
661K registered voters
all 82
turnout 62%
Cavaco 32%
Alegre 27%
Sousa 21%
Soares 13%
Louca 7%

Portalegre
108K registered voters
all 86
turnout 61%
Cavaco 38%
Alegre 26%
Soares 16%
Sousa 14%

Evora
147K registered voters
all 91
turnout 62%
Cavaco 31%
Alegre 27%
Sousa 22%
Soares 14%

Beja
138K registered voters
all 100
turnout 58%
Sousa 28%
Cavaco 27%
Alegre 27%
Soares 13%

Faro
326K registered voters
all 84
turnout 60%
Cavaco 49%
Alegre 23%
Soares 13%
Sousa 8%
Louca 7%

Madeira
232K registered voters
all 54
turnout 58%
Cavaco 58%
Alegre 16%
Soares 12%
Louca 8%
Sousa 5%

Acores
165K registered voters
all 156
turnout 43%
Cavaco 56%
Soares 20%
Alegre 17%

Quick thoughts ... there's not much of a relationship between no of precincts and population. I'll probably add population figures. EDIT - done.
I love the fact that neither Socialist managed to top the poll anywhere - but the Commie did!
Acores is the only district where Soares beat Alegre, but he got very very close to in Porto. Is Soares from Porto?
Is the low turnout in Acores and also in rural parts generally, esp. towards the north, normal?

[Bono]

With 12 parishes to count(some of them won't be counted, ebcuase of boycots), results are:

Cavaco 50.7%
Alegre 21%
Soares 14.3%
Jerónimo 8.6%
Louçã 5.3%


To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division. There's not much relation, since some of them are pretty dense, while otehrs pretty disperced. There really isn't a precint divison below them, becuase to put it bluntly, voter registration is a total mess.
As for Beja, it's a communist stronghold, so it's not too surprising the commie managed to beat Cavaco to it.
Nop, Soares if from Lisbon, and Alegre is an MP for Coimbra.
As for turnout, I've never studied that, but it's probably becuase a lot of people in voter rolls are dead.

[minionofmidas]

To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division.

"Freguesias". You'll probably be right, it's your country.

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I know that (why are the Commies this strong in the Southern interior, though?) but I think (may be wrong) it's been a while since they actually won the district.

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Interesting.

[Bono]

To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division.

"Freguesias". You'll probably be right, it's your country.

Yep, that's it.

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I know that (why are the Commies this strong in the Southern interior, though?) but I think (may be wrong) it's been a while since they actually won the district. [/quote]
Hm, I supose, but it's also been a while since the commies ran a candidate to the end in the presidentials. As for why they are so strong, it's an area of big agricultural properties, and it dates back from the fall of the Estado Novo and calls for agricultural reform, which actually happened for a short while, but fortunately it was all reversed.

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Interesting.
[/quote]

[minionofmidas]

Exit Poll Results

http://195.23.69.201/presidenciais2006

Cavaco 50.4 - 54.6
Alegre 17.7 - 21.5
Soares 12.5 - 16.3
Jerónimo 6.4 - 8.6
Louçã 4.1 - 6.3

This exist poll just about did not blow up - Cavaco came in close to the lower end of the span, Alegre close to the upper end, Jeronimo Sousa (is that first name and father's name as in Mario Soares, or father's and mother's name as in Cavaco Silva?) right at the upper end.

[minionofmidas]

To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division.

"Freguesias". You'll probably be right, it's your country.

Yep, that's it.

How does it work exactly? I noticed that there's no such thing as a Lisbon or Porto freguesia - in fact most towns of any size whatsoever seem to split into several freguesias. So is the conselho closer to what I'd call a municipality over here? ... but they can be vast in rural parts...

[minionofmidas]

For the four closest distritos, which also just so happened to be the Commie strongholds (hey, with one of the major parties split and doing bad even in the addition, and the Commies doing very well, what do you expect?), I've counted out who carried which conselhos and how many freguesias...

Setúbal
Cavaco 9 conselhos, 50 freguesias
Alegre 0 conselhos, 8 freguesias
Jeronimo 4 conselhos (Alcacer do Sal, Barreiro, Grandola, Moita), 24 freguesias

Portalegre
Cavaco 13 conselhos, 58 freguesias
Alegre 0 conselhos, 10 freguesias
Soares 1 conselho (Campo Maior), 4 freguesias
Jeronimo 1 conselho (Avis), 14 freguesias

Evora
Cavaco 7 conselhos, 36 freguesias
Alegre 1 conselho (Borba), 20 freguesias
Jeronimo 6 conselhos (Alandroal, Arraiolos, Montemor-o-Novo, Mora, Portel, Viana do Alentejo), 32 freguesias
Soares 0 conselhos, 3 freguesias

Notice an obvious pattern here ... Jeronimo winning far more places than you'd think from the raw numbers (ie winning many sparsely populated rural places), Alegre far fewer (ie doing best in the bigger towns...and still losing to Cavaco in them).
Yeah well, Beja is different, perhaps because Cavaco didn't really outpoll Alegre here:

Beja
Jeronimo 4 conselhos (Aljustrel, Cuba, Mertola, Serpa), 40 freguesias
Cavaco 5 conselhos (Almodovar, Alvito, Barrancos, Odemira, Ourique), 35 freguesias
Alegre 5 conselhos (Beja, Castro Verde, Ferreira do Alentejo, Moura, Vidigueira), 24 freguesias
Soares 0 conselhos, 1 freguesia


By the way, Cavaco won every freguesia in Porto conselho, and every freguesia in Lisbon conselho bar one, and that a tiny one (Castelo, won by Alegre).

[WMS]

As for turnout, I've never studied that, but it's probably becuase a lot of people in voter rolls are dead.

Interesting.

And hardly unique to Portugal.

[Bono]

Exit Poll Results

http://195.23.69.201/presidenciais2006

Cavaco 50.4 - 54.6
Alegre 17.7 - 21.5
Soares 12.5 - 16.3
Jerónimo 6.4 - 8.6
Louçã 4.1 - 6.3

This exist poll just about did not blow up - Cavaco came in close to the lower end of the span, Alegre close to the upper end, Jeronimo Sousa (is that first name and father's name as in Mario Soares, or father's and mother's name as in Cavaco Silva?) right at the upper end.

It's first and father's, and in cavaco's case is mother's and then father's, not the reserve. Our naming convention is exactly the oposit of the spanish one.

[Bono]

To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division.

"Freguesias". You'll probably be right, it's your country.

Yep, that's it.

How does it work exactly? I noticed that there's no such thing as a Lisbon or Porto freguesia - in fact most towns of any size whatsoever seem to split into several freguesias. So is the conselho closer to what I'd call a municipality over here? ... but they can be vast in rural parts...

Yep, the concelho is the actually meaningful divison. A freguesia does jack: some street maintenance, public gardens, graveyard, etc. That varies from council to council however. Concelhos actually have independent tax revenue, and delegating power upon freguesias. As for vastness, well, it's just the way it came to bethere are quite slots of really small villages that don't have any independent local government whatsoever, being dependent on the nearest freguesia. However, the system is not so town-centric as it may be elsewhere. Anyways, on rural areas, freguesias tend to have more powers and presence than on urban ones, and in fact, the government plans to merge some urban ones to save money.

[minionofmidas]

To answer Lewis' questions:
The figures you're looking at are likely parishes, which is the lowest local government division.

"Freguesias". You'll probably be right, it's your country.

Yep, that's it.

How does it work exactly? I noticed that there's no such thing as a Lisbon or Porto freguesia - in fact most towns of any size whatsoever seem to split into several freguesias. So is the conselho closer to what I'd call a municipality over here? ... but they can be vast in rural parts...

Yep, the concelho is the actually meaningful divison. A freguesia does jack: some street maintenance, public gardens, graveyard, etc. That varies from council to council however. Concelhos actually have independent tax revenue, and delegating power upon freguesias. As for vastness, well, it's just the way it came to bethere are quite slots of really small villages that don't have any independent local government whatsoever, being dependent on the nearest freguesia. However, the system is not so town-centric as it may be elsewhere. Anyways, on rural areas, freguesias tend to have more powers and presence than on urban ones, and in fact, the government plans to merge some urban ones to save money.

Thanks, makes sense.