IBD/TIPP: Trump -5 to +5

[Skye]

Biden 50
Trump 45

Trump 49
Warren 45

Trump 48
Sander 47

Trump 46
Buttigieg 44

Trump 47
Bloomberg 46

https://www.investors.com/news/joe-biden-leads-democrats-president-trump-tops-elizabeth-warren-bernie-sanders-ibd-tipp-poll/

[Cinemark]

I like how they include Trump's approval rating with stock investors but not with actual voters in the article.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

[Cinemark]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%.

Someone can challenge me on this, but Obama seemed to always get holiday bumps this time of year. And I recall there being a discussion in the approval rating thread last year about how Trump's numbers followed a similar pattern.

[Gass3268]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

Contested primaries usually hurt the party having them during the time in which they are occuring. I have to imagine Republicans are more consolidated around Trump than Democrats are around each candidate. Trump's approval is still in the same range that it's always been.

[Podgy the Bear]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

It's all of the above.  But the Democrats can still win this if the left and center unify against the common goal (which is to defeat Trump).  

And the numbers continue to show that in a head to head, Biden (for all his flaws) is the strongest candidate to win next November.  It's up to the left to decide--will you take Biden (and about 70-80% of the pie and an attempt for normalcy) or allow Trump to win again (with at least two more SC nominees in his pocket and a country that becomes more unrecognizable by the day)?

[Annatar]

The reason Trump has gained vs dems in H2H isn’t because he’s gotten more popular, it’s because the dems have gotten less popular, over time, the dems net favourability advantage over Trump has declined which obviously results in closer H2H numbers. I would recommend this article as it has some graphs which show the trend.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democratic-presidential-candidates-are-becoming-less-popular/amp/

[MT Treasurer]

It’s definitely impeachment #backlash. Turns out impeaching an incumbent president because of a consensual phone call isn’t all that popular with single women and suburban soccer moms, who would have thought?

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s definitely impeachment #backlash. Turns out impeaching an incumbent president because of a consensual phone call isn’t all that popular with single women and suburban soccer moms, who would have thought?

I don't think it's backlash so much as reversion to the mean after the tangible hit Trump took when the Ukraine scandal first came out.

[Frenchrepublican]

The reason Trump has gained vs dems in H2H isn’t because he’s gotten more popular, it’s because the dems have gotten less popular, over time, the dems net favourability advantage over Trump has declined which obviously results in closer H2H numbers. I would recommend this article as it has some graphs which show the trend.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democratic-presidential-candidates-are-becoming-less-popular/amp/

Yeah, as of now the only way Trump can win is to make his opponents as much unpopular than him (or even more unpopular)

[Frenchrepublican]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

Well, soft republicans voters are coming back to home, even if they still don't like Trump very much the hard left direction taken by the Democratic party is probably driving them to Trump, that's not a very big suprise. Trump was never going to lose by double digits (like some polls were/are let us believe)

[ElectionsGuy]

These are not good numbers for the Democrats. If Trump is about to get impeached this week with these, then imagine after the Senate acquits him.

The reason Trump has gained vs dems in H2H isn’t because he’s gotten more popular, it’s because the dems have gotten less popular, over time, the dems net favourability advantage over Trump has declined which obviously results in closer H2H numbers. I would recommend this article as it has some graphs which show the trend.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-democratic-presidential-candidates-are-becoming-less-popular/amp/

Yeah, as of now the only way Trump can win is to make his opponents as much unpopular than him (or even more unpopular)

And (the key) win voters that dislike both candidates, overwhelmingly.

[SN2903]

Amazing #s for Trump.

[SN2903]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

  I would put Trump's chances at about 70% right now. Democrats are getting weaker and weaker.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Amazing #s for Trump.

Trump is done

[Epaminondas]

It's up to the left to decide--will you take Biden (and about 70-80% of the pie and an attempt for normalcy) or allow Trump to win again (with at least two more SC nominees in his pocket and a country that becomes more unrecognizable by the day)?

Left-wing voters took Clinton in 2016, too. Totally worth it, 100% would try again.
You can lead a horse to stagnant water, but you can't make it drink.

[The Mikado]

The reason Trump has gained vs dems in H2H isn’t because he’s gotten more popular, it’s because the dems have gotten less popular, over time

^^^

This.

[President Johnson]

Donald Trump won't win the popular vote against any of the leading Democratic candidates. It's almost impossible, given how the states are leaning. Even if he were to expand the electoral map. But even if this poll his too Trump-friendly, once again it's obvious who's the man to win this election. Maybe Democrats should just pick this guy?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Natl polls dont matter that much, Dems will win the natl popular vote due to three metros in Ca, IL and NY; consequently,  we know GA, AZ and TX, especially Dallas which is the 4th largest city and becoming more winnable for Dems

[DrScholl]

Trump trailing against his likely opponent isn't good news for and it goes to show why he made that phone call in the first place.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I hate this election. It's going to be a miserable 11 months.

[Brittain33]

Is it just me, or have Mr. Trump's numbers improved across the board in recent weeks and months? Impeachment backfiring? To be completely honest, about 6 months ago, I would have said chance for Dem victory is 80%, as of now I'd say more like 55-60%. These NYT battleground polls from a few weeks were already alarming, where even Biden and Sanders just barely won.

  I would put Trump's chances at about 70% right now. Democrats are getting weaker and weaker.

Republican overconfidence gives me hope for the Democrats’ chances in 2020.