2020 Senate Ratings/Predictions - RESULTS (Fall 2019)

[ElectionsGuy]

Spring 2019 (done by Orser67)

All previous threads here:

AL AK AZ CO GA GA-S IA KS KY ME MI MN MS MT NH NM NC SC TN TX VA

No Election: 35
Safe D: 8
Likely D: 3
Lean D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt D: 1
Toss-Up/Tilt R: 1
Lean R: 3 <-- Tipping point
Likely R: 6
Safe R: 12
No Election: 30

Democrats: 48
Republicans: 52 ✔

Runoffs

GA-S

Pickups

AL AZ CO

Net: D+1

[ElectionsGuy]

Changes from Orser67's series done in Spring. Numbers may not add up do to a greater range of options and clear troll votes (ex: Lean D - 1, Likely D - 0, Safe D - 2 --> these two votes would be disregarded in the D/R calculation) or where an edgier option got more votes (ex: Lean D - 1, Likely D - 2 --> these two votes would be disregarded). No D/R number means it's 100% unanimous and the same with Orser's threads.

Alabama

Lean R: 7.8% (-8.3%)
Likely R: 54.4% (+2.0%)
Safe R: 35.6% (+10.6%)

Alaska

Toss-up: 2.0% (+2.0%)
Lean R: 6.0% (+3.5%)
Likely R: 56.0% (+2.8%)
Safe R: 32.0% (-12.3%)

Arizona

Likely D: 2.4% (0)
Lean D: 15.4% (+3.6%)
Toss-Up: 80.5% (-0.6%)
Lean R: 0.8% (-2.3%)
Likely R: 0.8% (0)

Democratic: 78.1% (+11.9%)
Republican: 21.9% (-11.9%)

Colorado

Safe D: 17.1% (+1.0%)
Likely D: 54.5% (+18.2%)
Lean D: 21.1% (-10.4%)
Toss-Up: 6.5% (-9.6%)
Lean R: 0.8% (+0.8%)

Democratic: 98.4% (+0.8%)
Republican: 1.6% (-0.8%)

Georgia

Toss-Up: 19.0% (-0.8%)
Lean R: 55.6% (+0.9%)
Likely R: 20.6% (-0.2%)
Safe R: 4.8% (+2.9%)

Democratic: 0.0% (-2.8%)
Republican: 100.0% (+2.8%)

Georgia-Special

New election, no comparisons

Iowa

Toss-Up: 10.5% (+4.0%)
Lean R: 38.2% (+7.8%)
Likely R: 40.8% (-13.5%)
Safe R: 10.5% (+2.9%)

Democratic: 3.9% (+1.7%)
Republican: 96.1% (-1.7%)

Kansas

Toss-Up: 3.0% (+3.0%)
Lean R: 10.4% (+5.8%)
Likely R: 67.2% (+2.6%)
Safe R: 19.4% (-11.4%)

Kentucky

Toss-Up: 1.1% (+1.1%)
Lean R: 3.4% (+0.3%)
Likely R: 15.7% (-8.9%)
Safe R: 77.5% (+6.7%)

Maine

Likely D: 1.5% (+1.5%)
Lean D: 6.7% (+5.5%)
Toss-Up: 41.0% (+20.3%)
Lean R: 41.8% (-4.5%)
Likely R: 9.0% (-17.8%)

Democratic: 28.3% (+21.0%)
Republican: 71.7% (-21.0%)

Michigan

Safe D: 2.9% (-0.8%)
Likely D: 14.7% (-10.0%)
Lean D: 52.0% (+3.9%)
Toss-Up: 27.4% (+8.9%)
Lean R: 2.9% (-0.8%)

Democratic: 83.4% (-8.0%)
Republican: 16.6% (+8.0%)

Minnesota

Safe D: 25.3% (+4.6%)
Likely D: 62.0% (-1.4%)
Lean D: 6.3% (-3.5%)
Toss-Up: 6.3% (+1.5%)

Democratic: 97.5% (-0.1%)
Republican: 2.5% (+0.1%)

Mississippi

Lean R: 2.9% (+2.9%)
Likely R: 10.1% (-11.0%)
Safe R: 87.0% (+8.1%)

Montana

Lean R: 4.8% (-12.3%)
Likely R: 50.8% (-11.0%)
Safe R: 44.4% (+28.6%)

Democratic: 0.0% (-1.3%)
Republican: 100.0% (+1.3%)

New Hampshire

Safe D: 15.5% (+12.7%)
Likely D: 60.3% (+10.3%)
Lean D: 17.2% (-16.1%)
Toss-Up: 5.2% (-4.5%)

Democratic: 100.0% (+4.2%)
Republican: 0.0% (-4.2%)

New Mexico

Safe D: 83.0% (+8.0%)
Likely D: 14.8% (-7.7%)
Lean D: 1.1% (-0.2%)

North Carolina

Lean D: 1.9% (-1.2%)
Toss-Up: 81.1% (+15.0%)
Lean R: 15.2% (-14.0%)
Likely R: 1.9% (+0.4%)

Democratic: 35.2% (+2.9%)
Republican: 64.8% (-2.9%)

South Carolina

New thread, no comparison

Tennessee

It's basically unanimous so who cares

Texas

Toss-Up: 4.4% (-7.7%)
Lean R: 23.5% (-7.5%)
Likely R: 54.4% (+11.3%)
Safe R: 17.6% (+7.3%)

Democratic: 1.5% (-5.4%)
Republican: 98.5% (+5.4%)

Virginia

Safe D: 86.2% (+12.4%)
Likely D: 12.1% (-10.4%)
Lean D: 1.7% (-0.8%)

[jamestroll]

I am telling the truth.. I do not tie up and tickle guys. Those rumors are false.

[ElectionsGuy]

Competitive Range % (Lean D - Lean R)

NC: 98.1% (-0.4%)
AZ: 96.8% (+0.8%)
ME: 89.5% (+21.3%)
GA-S: 83.7%
MI: 82.4% (+12.1%)
GA: 74.6% (+0.1%)
IA: 48.7% (+11.8%)
CO: 28.4% (-19.3%)
TX: 28.0% (-16.8%)
NH: 24.2% (-17.2%)
KS: 13.4% (+8.8%)
MN: 12.7% (-1.9%)
AL: 7.8% (-12.3%)
AK: 8.0% (+5.5%)
SC: 5.5%
MT: 4.8% (-17.5%)
KY: 4.5% (+1.4%)
MS: 2.9% (+2.9%)
VA: 1.7% (-2.1%)
TN: 1.5% (+1.5%)
NM: 1.1% (-0.2%)

Optimal path to Democratic Senate Majority

Safe D: 43
+MN: 44
+NH: 45
+CO: 46
+MI: 47
+AZ: 48
-----------
+NC: 49
+ME: 50 <-- Tipping point if Trump is defeated
+GA-S: 51 <-- Tipping point if Trump is re-elected
+GA: 52
+IA: 53
+KS: 54
+TX: 55
+AK: 56
+AL: 57
+MT: 58
Safe R: 42

[Sir Mohamed]

Even if Trump loses in 2020, a GOP senate will suck. The old turtle will delay all cabinet nominations or block some of them outright. I wouldn't be surprised if all cabinet officials won't be confirmed until after summer 2021. We may be lucky with replacing RBG and Breyer, but McConnell would block any replacements for conservative judges on SCOTUS. And he'll block any meaningful legislation by the House. Dems must do everything to get to 50+ seats.

[ElectionsGuy]

I am telling the truth.. I do not tie up and tickle guys. Those rumors are false.

Ok, thanks for clarifying that.