Reuters/Ipsos National: Biden leads Sanders and Warren 21-16-15

[Sorenroy]

Sample size of 703 adults, conducted October 17th to 18th. Change is from their previous poll conducted directly after the June debate three weeks ago.

Biden — 21% (+3%)
Sanders — 16% (+1%)
Warren — 15% (+1%)
Buttigieg — 5% (+2%)
Harris — 3% (-1%)
O'Rourke — 3% (+1%)
Yang — 2% (-1%)
Gabbard — 2% (+1%)
Klobuchar — 1% (±0)
Booker — 1% (±0)
Castro — 1% (+1%)
Williamson — 1% (±0)
Sestak — 0% (±0)
Steyer — 0% (±0)
Messam — 0% (±0)

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-democrats-poll/biden-expands-edge-in-u-s-democratic-nomination-race-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1WX2O4


As of now, only the adult sample numbers are available, although their polls in the past have included a registered voters model with (slightly) lower undecideds.

[The Mikado]

Ipsos/Reuters loves its undecideds.

[SN2903]

Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro need to drop out.

This race will come down to Warren, Sanders, Pete, Tulsi and Yang.

[Holmes]

Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro need to drop out.

This race will come down to Warren, Sanders, Pete, Tulsi and Yang.

It'll come down to Biden and Warren with Sanders and Pete in third/fourth.

[eric82oslo]

Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro need to drop out.

This race will come down to Warren, Sanders, Pete, Tulsi and Yang.

It'll come down to Biden and Warren with Sanders and Pete in third/fourth.

Biden who can't even put two words after each other in correct order?

[Holmes]

Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro need to drop out.

This race will come down to Warren, Sanders, Pete, Tulsi and Yang.

It'll come down to Biden and Warren with Sanders and Pete in third/fourth.

Biden who can't even put two words after each other in correct order?

Yes? Obviously Biden, VP to the popular former Democratic president, will be a leading candidate throughout the Democratic primaries. Then again I am talking to the guy who thinks Yang will win California.

[eric82oslo]

Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, Castro need to drop out.

This race will come down to Warren, Sanders, Pete, Tulsi and Yang.

It'll come down to Biden and Warren with Sanders and Pete in third/fourth.

Biden who can't even put two words after each other in correct order?

Yes? Obviously Biden, VP to the popular former Democratic president, will be a leading candidate throughout the Democratic primaries. Then again I am talking to the guy who thinks Yang will win California.

If you look at the last 3 months (90 days) then Yang has had almost as many YouTube searches in California as his four fiercest competitors nationally (I don't consider Kamala especially fierce any longer). Here's the data:

1. Yang: 45%
2. Sanders: 23%
3. Biden: 20%
4. Warren: 7%
5. Pete: 5%

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?date=today%203-m&geo=US&gprop=youtube&q=%2Fg%2F11c37jsw3y,%2Fm%2F012gx2,%2Fm%2F01qh39,%2Fm%2F01_gbv,%2Fm%2F0hhqg37

Even if we exchange Pete for Kamala, which again to me makes absolutely no sense for the time being, but Kamala might at least stay in it until California, so let's do it for the sake of the argument.  

What changes is that Kamala moves up to 9%, while Yang basically remains steady at 43%.

It's not a far-fetched idea that Yang could win California.

With Hawaii and Alaska, it's after all one of his three best states.

Around 15% of Californians are Asian, the second highest percentage after Hawaii's at around 40%.

[Mr. Morden]

This release has the registered voter #s as well:

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-10/topline_reuters_democratic_debate_poll_10_21_2019_wu.pdf

Dem. primary race—all RVs:
Biden 24%
Warren 17%
Sanders 15%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Gabbard 2%
Yang 2%
all others at 1% or less

Dem. primary race—Democratic RVs:
Biden 29%
Warren 21%
Sanders 17%
Buttigieg 6%
Harris 5%
O’Rourke 3%
Yang 3%
Klobuchar 2%
all others at 1% or less

GOP primary race—all RVs:
Trump 64%
Kasich 4%
Sanford 2%
Walsh 2%
Weld 1%

GOP primary race—Republican RVs:
Trump 79%
Kasich 5%
Sanford 1%
Walsh 1%
Weld 1%