IBD/TIPP: Warren 27, Biden 26, Sanders 10

[Zaybay]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20191007_National.xlsx

Warren: 27%(+3%)
Biden: 26%(-2%)
Sanders: 10%(-2%)
Buttigieg: 7%(+2%)
Harris: 3%(-3%)

Change from last poll in early September.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

RCP average now down to Biden at a very precarious 0.3% ahead.

[Mr. Morden]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20191007_National.xlsx

Warren: 27%(+3%)
Biden: 26%(-2%)
Sanders: 10%(-2%)
Buttigieg: 7%(+2%)
Harris: 3%(-3%)

Change from last poll in early September.

Also:

Yang 3%
O’Rourke 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Gabbard 1%
Castro 1%
Booker, Bullock, Steyer, Messam, Ryan, Bennet, Delaney, Sestak, Williamson 0%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Warren is gonna stay on top as long as this Hunter Biden story persist. It does no good for Biden to stay silent. As long as public sees Trump Jr and Eric Trump out in forefront, the public wants to know where's Hunter Biden. Whom wont come out, and Beau Biden, before he died did public events

[Mr. Morden]

white:
Warren 33%
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 10%
Sanders 10%

non-white:
Biden 44%
Warren 16%
Sanders 8%
Harris 5%

Midwest:
Biden 34%
Warren 15%
Harris 8%
Sanders 7%
Buttigieg 4%

Northeast:
Biden 29%
Warren 25%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 7%
Sanders 5%

South:
Biden 29%
Warren 23%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
O’Rourke 5%

West:
Warren 40%
Biden 14%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 4%

[Rookie Yinzer]

Warren is going to dominate west of the Mississippi.

I think this primary is going to come down to Biden’s margins in the South, and who can win Wisconsin, Ohio, New York, & Michigan with Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, & West Virginia being potential Tossups.

[Zaybay]

Warren is going to dominate west of the Mississippi.

I think this primary is going to come down to Biden’s margins in the South, and who can win Wisconsin, Ohio, New York, & Michigan with Indiana, Illinois, Kentucky, Missouri, & West Virginia being potential Tossups.

If Warren wins IA, NH, and NV, then the race is already over.

[Matty]

white:
Warren 33%
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 10%
Sanders 10%

non-white:
Biden 44%
Warren 16%
Sanders 8%
Harris 5%

Midwest:
Biden 34%
Warren 15%
Harris 8%
Sanders 7%
Buttigieg 4%

Northeast:
Biden 29%
Warren 25%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 7%
Sanders 5%

South:
Biden 29%
Warren 23%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
O’Rourke 5%

West:
Warren 40%
Biden 14%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 4%

Warren doing better in south than Midwest??

[Tintrlvr]

white:
Warren 33%
Biden 20%
Buttigieg 10%
Sanders 10%

non-white:
Biden 44%
Warren 16%
Sanders 8%
Harris 5%

Midwest:
Biden 34%
Warren 15%
Harris 8%
Sanders 7%
Buttigieg 4%

Northeast:
Biden 29%
Warren 25%
Buttigieg 7%
Yang 7%
Sanders 5%

South:
Biden 29%
Warren 23%
Sanders 11%
Buttigieg 9%
O’Rourke 5%

West:
Warren 40%
Biden 14%
Sanders 12%
Buttigieg 5%
Harris 4%

Warren doing better in south than Midwest??

The regional subsamples have to be small on an n=900 sample nationwide and are not to be taken too seriously. Harris's strongest region and Buttigieg's weakest region being the Midwest is also bizarre.

[Eraserhead]

This has always been one of his worst polls but it's definitely not looking good for my dude Bernie...

A damn shame.

[Sorenroy]

Warren doing better in south than Midwest??

The regional subsamples have to be small on an n=900 sample nationwide and are not to be taken too seriously. Harris's strongest region and Buttigieg's weakest region being the Midwest is also bizarre.

Just to emphasize your point, the national sample for the Democratic primary is only 341 registered voters. I don't know how the population of Democratic voters stacks up region by region, but any given region can't be that much more than 100 people.

[Tintrlvr]

Warren doing better in south than Midwest??

The regional subsamples have to be small on an n=900 sample nationwide and are not to be taken too seriously. Harris's strongest region and Buttigieg's weakest region being the Midwest is also bizarre.

Just to emphasize your point, the national sample for the Democratic primary is only 341 registered voters. I don't know how the population of Democratic voters stacks up region by region, but any given region can't be that much more than 100 people.

Ah, right, I saw n=900 at the top of the results page but that's all adults for the national questions. Dem primary voters is of course a much smaller group.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Warren doing better in south than Midwest??

The regional subsamples have to be small on an n=900 sample nationwide and are not to be taken too seriously. Harris's strongest region and Buttigieg's weakest region being the Midwest is also bizarre.

Just to emphasize your point, the national sample for the Democratic primary is only 341 registered voters. I don't know how the population of Democratic voters stacks up region by region, but any given region can't be that much more than 100 people.

Ah, right, I saw n=900 at the top of the results page but that's all adults for the national questions. Dem primary voters is of course a much smaller group.

They do line up with Warren’s strength in California though. I’d expect her to do even better I’m whiter states out west.

[Canis]

Go Warren and Sanders!

[The Free North]

This has always been one of his worst polls but it's definitely not looking good for my dude Bernie...

A damn shame.

Hes a known quantity at this point and people arent going to suddenly come over to his side: we've all heard the stump speech before.

And he just had a heart attack.

Sanders supporters can take some solace in that even though he won't win, he was once again able to frame the debate and at the very least move the rhetorical needle further to the left.

[Calthrina950]

IBD was one of the most accurate polls in the 2016 election, and one of the few that predicted Trump's upset victory. So I consider this to definitely be an alarming sign for the Biden campaign. Warren is now moving ahead of Biden in the primary polls.