Sanders loses New Hampshire - what's the path forward?
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Author Topic: Sanders loses New Hampshire - what's the path forward?  (Read 754 times)
RGM2609
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« on: December 01, 2019, 04:14:58 AM »
What if Bernie Sanders lost New Hampshire and actually came in third, behind Warren and Buttigieg. Is there any path forward for him to the nomination, and if so, what is it? In this scenario he also came in fourth in Iowa.
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538Electoral
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« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2019, 04:23:11 AM »
None.
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H. Ross Peron
General Mung Beans
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« Reply #2 on: December 01, 2019, 04:35:00 AM »
If he got (especially a strong) second, he has a shot with Nevada still. But if he gets third in New Hampshire, I suspect he'll drop out and endorse Warren to solidify progressive vote.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #3 on: December 01, 2019, 07:56:25 AM »
He needs a close top 3 finish in Iowa and a win in New Hampshire. After that, a win in Nevada and as strong of a 2nd place as he can get in South Carolina would be needed to be on a path to victory.
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Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck
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« Reply #4 on: December 01, 2019, 09:14:53 AM »
He's dedicating a ton of resources to California where he's got a great shot to win.  He's not dropping out before then no matter how much you kids pray for it. 
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W
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« Reply #5 on: December 01, 2019, 12:57:24 PM »
« Edited: December 01, 2019, 01:01:12 PM by W »
California would be his last hope, momentum alone would probably doom prospects in Nevada but he might be able to scrape some delegates there too.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #6 on: December 01, 2019, 01:01:33 PM »
He doesn't necessarily need to win New Hampshire.

He does need to come in at least second. Sanders is banking on a lot of low propensity voters who will stay home if they don't think their candidate has a shot of actually winning. Nothing gets people like that motivated like being on a winning team, or at least one seen as seriously in the fight. If Sanders gets, say, second in Iowa and second in New Hampshire, especially if it's to two different opponents, he looks like a serious contender. If he's, like, fourth in Iowa and third in New Hampshire, he looks like a has-been and all but his most loyal dead-enders start shopping for a new candidate.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: December 01, 2019, 01:13:02 PM »
None
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: December 01, 2019, 01:23:52 PM »
In your scenario:
Sanders 3rd in NH, and 4th in IA.
Then he has near zero chance of winning the nomination.
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here2view
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« Reply #9 on: December 01, 2019, 06:08:13 PM »
His path forward would be dropping out and endorsing Warren.
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redjohn
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« Reply #10 on: December 01, 2019, 06:13:34 PM »
If he just barely lost NH, his campaign could recover in NV. But it's clear that NH is going to be a pretty good indicator of whether Sanders is going to win.
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morgankingsley
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« Reply #11 on: December 01, 2019, 08:04:49 PM »
No path
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: December 01, 2019, 09:04:34 PM »
He is definitely staying in until Super Tuesday to win Vermont, and in that case would have to blitz other states that vote on that day where he has a chance to win to stay in the race. That's his only option.
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Joe Biden 2024
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« Reply #13 on: December 02, 2019, 12:46:32 PM »
There isn't one. Same thing if Warren loses New Hampshire.
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« Reply #14 on: December 02, 2019, 02:39:37 PM »
tbh, given the NH Democratic coalition is increasingly more Boston overflow rather than the more Vermonty north, I don't think it would be as bad as if he lost Nevada - which is clearly the most win state for Bernie imo.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #15 on: December 02, 2019, 04:21:15 PM »
There isn't one because he will be crushed in SC. I don't think Bernie has a realistic path unless he can win both IA and NH, then place decently in SC.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2019, 05:48:12 PM »
Quote from: Fmr. Pres. Duke on December 02, 2019, 04:21:15 PM
There isn't one because he will be crushed in SC. I don't think Bernie has a realistic path unless he can win both IA and NH, then place decently in SC.
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