Which state does Trump have a better chance of winning?

[SN2903]

I would say Nevada, but I think the demographics are more in his favor in Minnesota.

I think

Nevada - 50% chance
Minnesota - 30% chance

[Politician]

inb4 Xingkerui

Anyways, Nevada. I expect him to lose both.

[Gracile]

Minnesota, barely. Although it is hard to imagine either of them flipping.

[Xing]

The state that he came closer to winning in 2016 and trended more Republican that year. Seriously, the arguments people make for why Minnesota will be hard (some say impossible) for Trump to win apply even more to Nevada. How are the demographics better for him in Nevada, anyway?

Minnesota: 84% white, 73% of the population in an urban area

Nevada: 67% white, 94% of the population in an urban area

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If the economic outlook is good on Election Day: Minnesota.

If not: Nevada.

[Grassroots]

Depends on how he runs his GE campaign. If he runs more populist like he did in 16', Minnesota. If he runs as a more establishment friendly "generic conservative", Nevada.

[Frenchrepublican]

Minnesota. Nevertheless both are likely D (with Biden) and I don't see them flipping.

[RaphaelDLG]

The state that he came closer to winning in 2016 and trended more Republican that year. Seriously, the arguments people make for why Minnesota will be hard (some say impossible) for Trump to win apply even more to Nevada. How are the demographics better for him in Nevada, anyway?

Minnesota: 84% white, 73% of the population in an urban area

Nevada: 67% white, 94% of the population in an urban area

I don't necessarily think Trump has a better chance in Nevada, but the one misleading thing about those statistics that Minnesota is very college educated while Nevada is not

[538Electoral]

I'd say he has a good chance to carry both but I'd say Minnesota. (1.5% compared to 2.5% in 2016)

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

If Warren or Sanders are the nominee I could see them keeping MN while Trump wins NV.

[LiberalDem19]

People keep talking about how Minnesota trended Republican, Nevada trended Republican too. Remember Obama won Nevada by 12 in 2008, and then Clinton won it by 2, for a 10 point swing, while Minnesota swung 8 points in that same time period.

[DrScholl]

Catatonic.