Will Utah swing D?

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

Make up a reasonable, plausible election result for Utah where that state swings towards the Democratic candidate.

These were the 2016 presidential election results:

Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Evan McMullin Gary Johnson Write-ins Dr. Jill Stein Darrell Castle Other

45.05% 27.17% 21.31% 3.46% 1.07% 0.83% 0.70% 0.41%

[Frenchrepublican]

Donald Trump : 51%
Joe Biden : 35%
Justin Amash : 10%
Write ins : 2%

[😥]

Donald Trump 53%
Joe Biden 37%
Third parties/write-ins 10%

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

АndriуValeriovich and Frenchrepublican made some plausible results where Utah would swing D if real.
How likely is a D swing in that state?

[The Mikado]

Unlikely. I do think the Dem will have the highest % in decades, but that it'll swing Trump.

Something like:

Trump 58
Dem 35
Other 7

Would be a hard Trump swing while still being the best a Dem has done there in decades.

[Frenchrepublican]

The most likely scenario is something like this

Trump : 55%
Democrat : 32%
Third parties : 12%
Write ins : 1%

[Gracile]

It will swing R, however my "bold take" is that the Democratic nominee will do much better than expected. I think that Trump's margin of victory will be significantly less than Romney's in 2012 (and probably less than McCain's in 2008).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R's perform 3-4 points better on election day and UT will go R

[The Mikado]

It will swing R, however my "bold take" is that the Democratic nominee will do much better than expected. I think that Trump's margin of victory will be significantly less than Romney's in 2012 (and probably less than McCain's in 2008).

So you're basically endorsing my scenario above.

And, yeah, no one thinks Trump's getting into the 70s again like Romney did, so that's not particularly bold.