Trump's approval vs his reelection numbers

[GeorgiaModerate]

There have been quite a few polls where Trump's job approval numbers have run several points ahead of his result in potential general election matchups.  This has been somewhat puzzling, but I talked to an old friend recently who led me to see how this can happen.  Background: a white male in his 60's, highly educated, professional occupation, high income, quite wealthy, lifelong conservative.  He didn't vote for Trump in 2016 (he wrote someone in) because he expected Trump to be a complete disaster; however, he admitted that he's been pleasantly surprised by Trump's results so far.  He's happy about the tax cut, ecstatic about the judges Trump's appointed (especially Gorsuch), and pleased with several other things, although there are some pieces of Trump's policy he doesn't like, such as the trade war.

The wording of the approval question in most polls is something like "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?"  (That's from the latest Fox poll.)  I have no doubt that my friend would answer that he does approve of the job Trump has done.  But he still thinks Trump is dangerously unstable and an embarrassment to the country, and under no circumstances will he vote to reelect him.  He'll probably vote third-party again, although he said he "might consider" Biden if he's the Democratic nominee.

Assuming there are other people who feel this way -- separating what Trump's done so far from how they view him as a person -- it would go a long way toward explaining the discrepancy between Trump's approval and reelection numbers.

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, I'm sure there are plenty of people who like the results of him being President while still disliking him personally.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Ah yes, the haughty white supremacists/fascist demographic.

"That Mr. SchicklgruberDrumpf has no taste or breeding, but he does put the undermensch back where they belong quite nicely, doesn't he?"

[Insomnian]

Trump's approval numbers will rise as the election approaches, as the "I don't like Trump but I'm voting for him" people justify their vote by approving of Trump.

[GP270watch]

 I still think there's a significant segment of the population who would never admit publicly to supporting Trump but would or did voter for him.

[Crumpets]

100-disapproval is usually a pretty good metric for reelection numbers in a two-way race.

[pbrower2a]

100-disapproval is usually a pretty good metric for reelection numbers in a two-way race.

The only thing better is the individual matchup, and we do not yet know what the individual matchup will be. The only metric favoring the re-election of Donald Trump is that we have had three consecutive Presidents who sought and won second terms. Such did not favor the elder Bush (nor really relevant, as that was partisan fatigue with domestic policies), Carter (failure as President) Ford (had never won a statewide campaign), and Hoover (catastrophic failure as President).

[MarkD]

There have been quite a few polls where Trump's job approval numbers have run several points ahead of his result in potential general election matchups.  This has been somewhat puzzling, but I talked to an old friend recently who led me to see how this can happen.  Background: a white male in his 60's, highly educated, professional occupation, high income, quite wealthy, lifelong conservative.  He didn't vote for Trump in 2016 (he wrote someone in) because he expected Trump to be a complete disaster; however, he admitted that he's been pleasantly surprised by Trump's results so far.  He's happy about the tax cut, ecstatic about the judges Trump's appointed (especially Gorsuch), and pleased with several other things, although there are some pieces of Trump's policy he doesn't like, such as the trade war.

The wording of the approval question in most polls is something like "Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?"  (That's from the latest Fox poll.)  I have no doubt that my friend would answer that he does approve of the job Trump has done.  But he still thinks Trump is dangerously unstable and an embarrassment to the country, and under no circumstances will he vote to reelect him.  He'll probably vote third-party again, although he said he "might consider" Biden if he's the Democratic nominee.

Assuming there are other people who feel this way -- separating what Trump's done so far from how they view him as a person -- it would go a long way toward explaining the discrepancy between Trump's approval and reelection numbers.

Sounds like my wealthy uncle, who lives in TX-32. Except I've never seen my uncle say one thing about agreeing with any of Trump's policies, not even the appointment of any judges. My uncle is in his 70's, and wrote in his dog as President. We wonder sometimes about his mental faculties!

[RonnieTheLimoDriver]

McCain and Obama were tied in December 2007. Hillary was beating Trump by 12 points in July 2015. Bush was beating Clinton by 19 points in March 1992.

Head-to-head matchups are completely meaningless until after the conventions. Look at the donations if you want a true picture of how things are right now. Anybody can answer the phone and take a poll...the people making campaign contributions are putting their money where their mouths are.

[Fuzzy Bear]

There will always be a disconnect between approval for Trump and approval for his policies.  Trump understands this.

Trump also understands that there will always be a disconnect between approval for Democratic policies and approval for an individual Democratic candidate. 

[RonnieTheLimoDriver]

There will always be a disconnect between approval for Trump and approval for his policies.  Trump understands this.

Trump also understands that there will always be a disconnect between approval for Democratic policies and approval for an individual Democratic candidate. 

The "electability" trope is also skewing the polls. I think low-information independent voters are hearing this thing about how "Biden is the only Democrat who can beat Trump," and that is subtly translating to "Biden is the only Democrat who is better than Trump." This could be leading these people to select Biden over Trump but Trump over every other Democrat in these GE polls.

I do think Biden can run the electability trope to the nomination, but it is kind of like the dog chasing the pickup truck. Once he gets the nod and it becomes a binary choice, what does he run on?