NYT EC Maps

[California Dreamer]

that goes with this article: http://www.nytimes.com/2004/05/12/politics/campaign/12states.html (subscription service)

if you arent a NYT subscriber do a search in Google news for "Nagourney" (the writer and it will take you past the subscription sign in page)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

It's strange that they think Maine will be more competitive than West Virginia.   And also that Kentucky and Montana will be closer than California.

[opebo]

They sure erred on the side of 'in play'.  I think there are a lot more states locked up than they show.

[Reaganfan]

Large confusing map.

[TheOldLine]

The NY Times seems to have simply constructed their analysis on the basis of looking at the results of the last three elections and not thinking any deeper than that.

Thus, Montana is somehow a "long shot" on the basis of Ross Perot narrowly tipping it to Clinton in 1992 and Tennessee is somehow a "most competitive" State since Al Gore delivered it for Clinton, whereas Arizona and its burgeoning Latino population is not.

YAWN!

TheOldLine

[Mort from NewYawk]

It's strange that they think Maine will be more competitive than West Virginia.   And also that Kentucky and Montana will be closer than California.

This article was based on some interviews with the campaigns, but also served as the average reader's first "primer"of the season.

To be in the "most competitive" category the state had to have a PV difference of 5% or less in 2000. Maine had 5%, WV 6%.

Kentucky and Montana are listed as "longshots", CA is "not in play". In reality, none of them are in play, unless there is a landslide.

The only thing I took away from this article was the question, "What would happen if hispanic voters in AZ, NM, and NV have really been underestimated and Kerry made off with all three states?

Answer: it all comes down to OH, FL, and PA. It's unlikely that someone will win 2 of 3 and not win the election. It may be an early night, because the West may be an afterthought.

[California Dreamer]

if you read the article...the analysis is based on what the two campaigns are focussing on

[muon2]

I kinda of like my signature map better ... not that I'm biased or anything.  

[12th Doctor]

Terrible analysis.  Expected nothing better from the times.  A lot of states that Bush has locked up are somehow in play???

[Lunar]

It goes both ways.  Maine and Washington should be long shots.

Arizona and West Virginia not "in play" but Tennessee is?

[??????????]

California is in play and the west will not be an "afterthought". I'll put my house on it.

[Lunar]

You'll bet your house that California will be close?  You're on.

[zachman]

According to this, Delaware:Kerry :: West Virginia : Bush?. I'd be surprised if Delaware goes for Kerry by less than 8%.

[California Dreamer]

California is in play and the west will not be an "afterthought". I'll put my house on it.

i want in on this action....it would be nice to have a vacation house in FL...or maybe as a good democrat I should turn it into a homeless shelter just to piss you off  

[??????????]

California is in play and the west will not be an "afterthought". I'll put my house on it.

i want in on this action....it would be nice to have a vacation house in FL...or maybe as a good democrat I should turn it into a homeless shelter just to piss you off  

You can have it! Just as long as you don't disturb the termites! They are holding hands for petes sake! I'd like a home in CA of course too. I want to run into J-Lo and all those other cute actress chicks.