South Carolina : Graham +17

[Frenchrepublican]

Change Research poll :

Graham : 52%
Harrison : 35%

https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sc-sen-lindsey-graham-begins-reelection-bid-with-advantage-over/article_8bb38082-9100-11e9-adbd-67d6214c9bbe.html

[Frenchrepublican]

By the way Trump has a favourability rate of 56/42 in this state. Don’t tell it to Uncle Joe who declared yesterday that he intends to win SC.

[UWS]

By the way Trump has a favourability rate of 56/42 in this state. Don’t tell it to Uncle Joe who declared yesterday that he intends to win SC.

What? Biden really thinks he can win SC on Election Day? LOL

[Frenchrepublican]

By the way Trump has a favourability rate of 56/42 in this state. Don’t tell it to Uncle Joe who declared yesterday that he intends to win SC.

What? Biden really thinks he can win SC on Election Day? LOL

That’s what he said

"I plan on campaigning in the south. I plan on, if I'm your nominee, winning Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, believe it or not."

[SnowLabrador]

If Trump's approval rating is +14 in South Carolina, Harrison's ceiling is probably about -14. The 2018 elections taught me that everything is nationalized, now and probably forever.

[Skye]

Eh, Graham will only be in danger if Trump somehow manages to lose the state (or perform poorly) which seems unlikely for now.

[Sir Mohamed]

Safe R. Nothing to see here.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

By the way Trump has a favourability rate of 56/42 in this state. Don’t tell it to Uncle Joe who declared yesterday that he intends to win SC.

What? Biden really thinks he can win SC on Election Day? LOL

That’s what he said

"I plan on campaigning in the south. I plan on, if I'm your nominee, winning Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, believe it or not."

Jeez, this guy is a real clown if he think states like South Carolina, Kentucky, and Tennessee will vote for Obama's former VP of all people, despite his President being one they dislike heavily.

Seriously, he's delusional if he thinks that can happen. Maybe in the 2030s-2040s but no earlier on the federal level.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No need to poll McConnell, Cornyn and Graham. Pollsters need to poll ME, GA, IA, NC, CO and AZ

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

At this point only SC-1 is interesting in this state, maybe SC-5 but unlikely

[MT Treasurer]

Very bad news for Cunningham if this and Trump's numbers are accurate. Don’t think he survives unless SC trends Democratic in 2020, and even then it would probably be a Tossup.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The article says that it's Graham 51, Generic D 36 fwiw.

In a new Post and Courier-Change Research poll, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Graham if the election were held today compared to 36 percent for the Democratic candidate. Another 12 percent said they were not sure.

This also likely plays a factor:

But he opens his first bid for elected office with a relatively blank slate among most S.C. voters: 58 percent said they have never heard of Harrison, and another 18 percent said they have a neutral opinion of him.

Graham approval is also neutral.

compared to 45 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable for Graham.

So still, very very likely R, but it seems things won't shift towards Graham any time soon.

[Xing]

Clearly more likely to go Democratic than IA

[Frenchrepublican]

The article says that it's Graham 51, Generic D 36 fwiw.

In a new Post and Courier-Change Research poll, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Graham if the election were held today compared to 36 percent for the Democratic candidate. Another 12 percent said they were not sure.

This also likely plays a factor:

But he opens his first bid for elected office with a relatively blank slate among most S.C. voters: 58 percent said they have never heard of Harrison, and another 18 percent said they have a neutral opinion of him.

Graham approval is also neutral.

compared to 45 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable for Graham.

So still, very very likely R, but it seems things won't shift towards Graham any time soon.

Read the article entirely, you wouldn’t make a fool of yourself.
,,The head-to-head numbers between Graham and Harrison remained statistically consistent with those of Graham against a generic Democrat: 52 percent for Graham to 35 percent for Harrison, with 13 percent unsure.’’

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

If Trump's approval rating is +14 in South Carolina, Harrison's ceiling is probably about -14. The 2018 elections taught me that everything is nationalized, now and probably forever.

LOL

[MT Treasurer]

Clearly more likely to go Democratic than IA

I mean Ernst was leading by more than Graham in that Democratic internal poll lmao

Neither race is particularly competitive now.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

The article says that it's Graham 51, Generic D 36 fwiw.

In a new Post and Courier-Change Research poll, 51 percent of respondents said they would vote for Graham if the election were held today compared to 36 percent for the Democratic candidate. Another 12 percent said they were not sure.

This also likely plays a factor:

But he opens his first bid for elected office with a relatively blank slate among most S.C. voters: 58 percent said they have never heard of Harrison, and another 18 percent said they have a neutral opinion of him.

Graham approval is also neutral.

compared to 45 percent favorable and 45 percent unfavorable for Graham.

So still, very very likely R, but it seems things won't shift towards Graham any time soon.

Read the article entirely, you wouldn’t make a fool of yourself.
,,The head-to-head numbers between Graham and Harrison remained statistically consistent with those of Graham against a generic Democrat: 52 percent for Graham to 35 percent for Harrison, with 13 percent unsure.’’

I wasn’t disputing the title of the thread, I was pointing out that the poll had other numbers for generic D as well.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This will be a single digit race. Harrison will mobilize unlikely black voters but there are not enough Latinos, Asians, and progressive whites to close the gap.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

This will be a single digit race. Harrison will mobilize unlikely black voters but there are not enough Latinos, Asians, and progressive whites to close the gap.

This is my take too. I say Harrison does slightly better than Smith did by getting out more black voters, but not much more. I'd say 53-47 is about as close as it'll get.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hopefully Harrison doesn't turn out to be just another overhyped Twitter candidate like Randy Bryce.

[Rookie Yinzer]

This will be a single digit race. Harrison will mobilize unlikely black voters but there are not enough Latinos, Asians, and progressive whites to close the gap.

This is my take too. I say Harrison does slightly better than Smith did by getting out more black voters, but not much more. I'd say 53-47 is about as close as it'll get.

Does your SOS office keep track of the race of registered voters? I was looking at 2016 SC Exit Polls and it said black voters only made up 19% of the electorate (but they are 27% of the population). Does that seem accurate? In comparison black people are about 32% of the pop in GA but we are usually 28-30% of the electorate.

[Roronoa D. Law]

This is about expected nobody was saying Graham was in any danger. Many Democrats see SC in that last tier of states with KS and AK were college-educated whites trending their way could net them a win in the coming decades.

I view this race as Democrats doing an experiment where if they put some effort into SC what would it look like. It probably also an excuse to increase turn out to help Cunnigham.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Southern Belle Lindsay Graham might have a much closer race in the primary than in the GE. He had a mediocre performance in 2014 against some Tea Party nut in the primary. Although, he has gained a lot of support among the deplorables as he has been Trump's right hand man.