Gallup poll: kerry leads;) , bush collapsing

[Umengus]

http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/14/bush.kerry/index.html

-likely voters:
Kerry: 51%
Bush: 46%

Kerry: 49%
Bush: 44%
Nader: 6%

-Bush job approval rating: 46% vs 49%

The poll was conducted by telephone Wednesday and Thursday, at a time when the scandal over the U.S. abuse of Iraqi prisoners was dominating news coverage, along with the beheading of American Nicholas Berg in Iraq.

The margin of error for the total sample of 1,001 adult Americans is 3.1 percentage points, but that margin varied for questions specifically asked of smaller groups, such as likely voters.

The poll also indicated that Bush's troubles may hurt the GOP in other races. On the generic ballot for congressional races, Democrats have a 13 point lead among likely voters.

[WalterMitty]

kerry wins?  i think it would be more correct to say kerry is leading.

i certainly havent conceded the race.

[classical liberal]

Kerry broke 50 in the head-to-head.

[WalterMitty]

i was at a baseball game the other night.  it was the bottom of the last inning.  the team i root for was down a run.  not only were they down to their last out, but they were down to their last strike...with the worst hitter on the team at bat.

they won the game.

just something to keep in mind.

[WalterMitty]

while we are talking baseball references, i notice in today's ny times, chris lehane is quoted as saying that kerry picking mccain would be the equivilant of the yankees signing a-rod.

i think the a-rod signing has been a huge disappointment for a lot of fans.  the rangers got the better end of that deal.

[CARLHAYDEN]

What everyone forgets is that telephone polls have been under a major problem for some time.

First, under federal law, they are prohibited from calling someone who may have to pay for the time (i.e. has a cell phone),

Second, many Americans have chosen to drop the landlines for cell phones.

Third, many Americans simply refuse to participate in the surveys (just ask the pollsters what the rejection rate is running now).  There is no validation to suggest that those who do respond accurately reflect the views of those who refuse to respond.

Just remember the mail polls conducted by a major american magazine in the twenties and thirties.  They relied on a large response for validation, and worked reasonably well until the changing economy altered the response base and made their predictions in 1936 off the wall.

[Spin Police]

It is a CNN/TIME poll NOT a CNN/Gallup

What do we know of "Time" polls...?

[© tweed]

What do we know of "Time" polls...?

They are crap

[Spin Police]

What do we know of "Time" polls...?

They are crap

Why do you say that..? Evidence/opinion..?

[© tweed]

Why do you say that..? Evidence/opinion..?

The Vorlon said so.

[Giant Saguaro]

No, sorry, Kerry doesn't "win."

A few things I'd suggest:

Just about two weeks ago, Bush "won" 51-46 or by some margin very, very close to that in a Gallup poll.

Our resident polling expert has been saying that Bush will experience a drop in May through the summer because Republicans and married couples, etc. tend to lose focus (as do a lot of people, including Democrats, because of travelling, vacation, etc.), so summer readings aren't particularly accurate. During the summer of 2002, for example, I read where Jeb Bush's re-elect numbers were just below 40% well into September. With all the vacationing going on, who knows who was picking up the phones in Florida. Just two months later, he won with not quite 60%, if I'm not mistaken. Plus, with all of this polling coming right in the middle of the Iraqi prisoner abuse stuff, I think it's pretty hard to get a good reading right now. Mood is running bad right now. I mean this abuse story has even been overshadowing the excellent economic news that has been coming in of late, and the economy is number one at the top of every poll. So who knows, there are too many variables and we are too far out.

Yes, Bush's approval is down. Yes, things are perceived as very bad in Iraq. But there's a long way to go till November. Maybe Bush will get landslided, maybe he won't. Maybe Kerry will get landslided, maybe he won't. Maybe it'll be a repeat of 2000, maybe it won't.

[© tweed]

Here's a good graphic from that poll:

[Spin Police]

Why do you say that..? Evidence/opinion..?

The Vorlon said so.

In the "polling" section Vorlon says that Time has changed polling firms and that the new ones are actually pretty good.

http://www.uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=200405140

[© tweed]

Oh, OK.

[Lunar]

Gallup:

Likely Voters:


Registered Voters:


Better for Economy?


Better for Iraq?


Bush Job Approval

[Nation]

Based on everything else that's happen, no matter how everyone spins this, it's GOOD for Kerry. Of course he has a long way to go and all, but I'd take any good news from that campaign right now. . .

[© tweed]

Bush Job Approval

41%?

[Nation]

That's what it looks like  o_o

[Lunar]

You're free to check Gallup's webpage yourself.  I'm not sure if the Job Approval is out of registered voters or likely voters.  If it is just out of registered then that would explain it since Kerry has a big lead among them.

[California Dreamer]

That chart is for Bush's Job Approval for handling of Iraq.

Here is the chart for overall job approval


For Gallup all non voting questions (approval, right track, iraq, economy, etc) are based on all adults. I beleive most polls do this. This is why there is often a disconnect (especially this far out) between the approval numbers and the 'likely voter' results.

[Lunar]

I think for Battleground that they effectively just hang up if the person doesn't say that they are at least "somewhat likely" to vote in one of the early questions.