It's not inconceivable that a Biden landslide eschews the geographic dynamics we got used to in 2016. The first reason we think Bernie will do significantly better in NH than SC are that the demographics in 2016 were significantly favorable to him in New England, the Mountain West, the Pacific West, the Great Plains, and some parts of the Midwest.
But national polls so far have been showing Biden up 15-20 with whites and up 25-30 with non-whites. The
last Quinnipiac poll even had Biden up 18 over Sanders among non-whites and up 19 among whites.
The other reason for thinking Bernie will do well in NH is that it's neighboring his home state, which probably propelled him to 60% in 2016. Polling has him way below that number. Why he isn't retaining a larger share of his 2016 support is a pretty relevant question. I have a few theories but it definitely seems like his campaign isn't nearly as focused on the regular people who voted for him as they should be.
Basically, it wouldn't be
that surprising if the gap in voting habits between states like NH and SC narrowed.
