Has Kansas actually moved left, or was it just Brownback blowback?

[Technocracy Timmy]

I mean, it's clearly on a slight D trend, 2016 and 2018 were not fluke trends, as it has trended D since 2000, with only 2004 interrupting it.

It trended 3 points R in 2012.

[TDAS04]

The funny thing is, prior to 2016, I recall an Atlas poster claiming that North Dakota was clearly a more liberal state than Kansas, lol.  I suppose Obama did perform slightly better in North Dakota, which had a much better record at electing Democrats to the Senate, and is more Scandinavian or whatever.  2016 clearly demonstrated that Kansas had trends different from the more rural Plains states.

Nebraska could be Kansas-lite in this sense, thanks to Omaha, and to a lesser extent, Lincoln.  The state has clearly trended Democratic since 2004.  Hillary carried Douglas County, which her husband lost by 12% in 1996!

[CEO Mindset]

Brownback is just that awful so just him.

[Xing]

Slightly, but not enough to make it remotely competitive at the federal level.

[fluffypanther19]

Slightly, but not enough to make it remotely competitive at the federal level.

[Sir Mohamed]

Slightly, but not enough to make it remotely competitive at the federal level.

This, due to Kansas City suburbs drifting away from the GOP/RINOs voting Dem. The KS GOP is pretty divided between a moderate RINOs and hardcore right-wingers.

[Smash255]

A bit of both.  A democratic trend is going on in the state and Brownback blowback certainly helped as well, but it still isn't going to be competitive on the presidential level anytime soon.

[darklordoftech]

I wonder how Bob Dole feels about this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder how Bob Dole feels about this.

He was the last of the compassionate conservatives and KS is the home of Civil Righs maverick Eisenhower. As he, himself ran with Ford and Jack Kemp. His wife, Liddy Dole was a maverick as well.

[Agonized-Statism]

The state is just a bad fit for Trump. They seem to like the earthy, gut-feeling, country personalities like Dubya, and I'm sure they would trend back hard if the candidate was someone like Pence.

[Skill and Chance]

It does feel like the kind of state where there could be a seismic shift overnight if the moderate R faction and it's voters say the heck with it and start becoming Dems.  Eerily reminiscent of the giant Dem state legislative majorities in several Southern states circa 2000 where Blue Dog support was a mile wide but an inch deep.

[SaneDemocrat]

Is there a dem nominee that could make it interesting though?

[pbrower2a]

Clearly the suburbs are trending Democratic, but KS-1 and KS-4 are still extremely Republican, and I don't see KS being a battleground state until the late 2020s at the very earliest. I think 2020 will be telling as to whether it's becoming a purple state in the long term, or whether 2018 was a bit of a fluke.

Republican presidential nominee share of the vote in KS since 2000:

2016: 56.2
2012: 59.7
2008: 56.6
2004: 62.0
2000: 58.0

I see no trend -- do you? -- except for 2004 to 2008 all shifts have been at or near the margin of error, and even the difference between 2004 and 2008 suggests that Obama was winning a landslide outside of the Deep and Mountain South following a close win for the incumbent Republican in 2004.

But -- Kansas will remain profoundly conservative, with the only meaningful change possible in either

(1) rural distress giving an opening to a Democrat, as in 1932 and 1936
(2) the Kansas GOP splintering, with (most likely) the more moderate wing of the GOP merging with the Democrats in Kansas,
(3) an unusual shift in Kansas' demographics, such as a large increase in the Hispanic population
(4) or a blow-out win of a Democratic nominee for President. 

[Sestak]

A tad left, yes.

[Gracile]

Slightly, but not enough to make it remotely competitive at the federal level.