Biden wins. R+1 in the Senate. John Kasich may appoint himself.
This result is somewhat generous towards Trump.
Why do you think that Biden loses Nevada to Trump?
Yeah, I don't get that either. I also think Biden wins New Hampshire and barely ekes out a win (less than 2%) in Ohio. North Carolina is also a possibility in this case. Popular vote margin is obviously bigger than in 2016.
Democrats also probably pick up enough Senate seats to get the majority, with Feingold, McGinty, Kander and possibly even Bayh winning, in addition to Duckworth and Hassan.