We Analyzed 40 Years Of Primary Polls. Even Early On, They’re Fairly Predictive.

[Galeel]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-analyzed-40-years-of-primary-polls-even-early-on-theyre-fairly-predictive/

[Tintrlvr]

Not terribly relevant for 2020, though. Note that their focus is on candidates who were polling 35+% in the first half of the year before the primaries. That describes no one in 2020. And their second category, 20-35%, for 2020 only includes candidates on the low end (i.e., there's no one polling in the 30s consistently), and yet such candidates were given only a 36% chance of becoming the nominee.

Also, "40 years" sounds like a lot, but it's only 10 primaries, or actually fewer since you have to exclude years with incumbents (other than arguably 1980) to get any meaningful information. Statistically I don't think trends based on eight primaries, many with very different dynamics from the current primary (e.g., who would compare 2008 or 2016 to 2020? Yet facially those should be the most similar since they are the most recent and reflect the decline of the party establishment in choosing nominees) is useful.

If anything this emphasizes that well-known candidates like Biden and Sanders who can't clear/dominate the field are unlikely to win the nomination, but that should have been clear already.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well the reason for that is simple many of them weren't hard to predict even discounting years incumbent had no serious challenger(really only Carter in 1979 did)

1979: Carter was the Incumbent President and Reagan was a former two term Governor of the largest state in the union and the runner up in the previous primary cycle . Reagan's top challengers were the losing VP candidate from the previous cycle and a two term congressman who never won a state wide election. HW actually outperformed expectations in the primaries

1983: Mondale was a former Vice President in a time when voters cared a lot about experience of presidential candidates and the Dem field was weak that year too.

1987 Republicans: HW was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration (especially among Republicans)

1995: Clinton was the Incumbent President and Dole was the Senate Majority Leader and the runner up in the previous contested primary cylce

1999: Gore was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration and George W Bush was Governor of the 2nd largest state(I think TX surpassed NY by 1999) and had the last name of Bush.

2011 GOP: Romney was literally all the GOP had after the wipeouts in 2006 and 2008

2015 Dems: Hillary Clinton was the runner up in 2008 ,  had more name recognition than anyone else , and was literally annoited the nomination and her only challanger was a Senator from Vermont lol. She still won but it was a surprise she didnt have it wrapped up after Super Tuesday

[President Johnson]

The only times a former or sitting vice president lost the nomination were in 1972 Humphrey (who lost the 1968 general election) and Dan Quayle in 1999/2000. Joe Biden is no Dan Quayle. However, I don't think he'll win the nomination without a fight. Probably this makes him, should he end up as such, a better candidate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The only times a former or sitting vice president lost the nomination were in 1972 Humphrey (who lost the 1968 general election) and Dan Quayle in 1999/2000. Joe Biden is no Dan Quayle. However, I don't think he'll win the nomination without a fight. Probably this makes him, should he end up as such, a better candidate.

That didn't turn out to be the case for Hillary Clinton, as I see it. Granted, I don't think their primaries are necessarily equivalent. Biden will be facing many more candidates and the opposition against him will be much more splintered.

[Continential]

Well the reason for that is simple many of them weren't hard to predict even discounting years incumbent had no serious challenger(really only Carter in 1979 did)

1979: Carter was the Incumbent President and Reagan was a former two term Governor of the largest state in the union and the runner up in the previous primary cycle . Reagan's top challengers were the losing VP candidate from the previous cycle and a two term congressman who never won a state wide election. HW actually outperformed expectations in the primaries

John Connally actually ran and spent 10 million in South Carolina and lost due to Lee Altwater.

1983: Mondale was a former Vice President in a time when voters cared a lot about experience of presidential candidates and the Dem field was weak that year too.

Gary Hart wasn't weak.

1987 Republicans: HW was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration (especially among Republicans)

HW had Dole and Robertson to the right and was trailing by 21 points in the beginning of the race and Iran-Contra.

1995: Clinton was the Incumbent President and Dole was the Senate Majority Leader and the runner up in the previous contested primary cylce

Clinton had baby Gringrich

1999: Gore was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration and George W Bush was Governor of the 2nd largest state(I think TX surpassed NY by 1999) and had the last name of Bush.

Liz Dole was another contender in 2000.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Well the reason for that is simple many of them weren't hard to predict even discounting years incumbent had no serious challenger(really only Carter in 1979 did)

1979: Carter was the Incumbent President and Reagan was a former two term Governor of the largest state in the union and the runner up in the previous primary cycle . Reagan's top challengers were the losing VP candidate from the previous cycle and a two term congressman who never won a state wide election. HW actually outperformed expectations in the primaries

John Connally actually ran and spent 10 million in South Carolina and lost due to Lee Altwater.

1983: Mondale was a former Vice President in a time when voters cared a lot about experience of presidential candidates and the Dem field was weak that year too.

Gary Hart wasn't weak.

1987 Republicans: HW was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration (especially among Republicans)

HW had Dole and Robertson to the right and was trailing by 21 points in the beginning of the race and Iran-Contra.

1995: Clinton was the Incumbent President and Dole was the Senate Majority Leader and the runner up in the previous contested primary cylce

Clinton had baby Gringrich

1999: Gore was the Incumbent Vice President in a popular administration and George W Bush was Governor of the 2nd largest state(I think TX surpassed NY by 1999) and had the last name of Bush.

Liz Dole was another contender in 2000.

-Connally wasnt expected to have a shot in 1979 , in 1979 it was believed that unless Ford ran , Reagan was going to be the inevitable nominee. Reagan struggled more than people believed he would in 1979 but the pollsters were still right about the outcome

-He wasnt but Mondale was still expected to win from day 1

- I thought HW was trailing in the general not primaries

- True Newt might have been considered a potential contender but I think most people thought of him as a potential candidate in 2000 or 2004

- Not anywhere close to W though

 

[Beet]

Primaries seasons are a lot of fun, but I think in everyone's heart of hearts we all know it's going to come down to Biden vs. Bernie, with maybe an outside chance of someone like Buttigieg. Those like myself are just hoping our pick hangs in there for as long as possible to make a mark on the cycle. At some point I'll have to pick, and it'll probably come down to whose supporters are more bearable.