PPP Iowa Poll: Biden 29%, Sanders 15%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden would be an idiot not to run.

Its March 2019, not 2020

[Minnesota Mike]

Are people saying that Harris is the favorite in SC just because she’s black? Because I would assume that would be showing up in the polls by now if it were. Anyone who’s heard of her knows she’s black.

Yes, my family lives all over SC and everybody they know is voting for Biden. Biden is favored in SC unless Harris has an Iowa moment. Anybody who suggests otherwise has never lived in SC or their time there was strictly on the Penninsula.

Barack Obama had to win Iowa before he surged to the lead in South Carolina. If Harris can't win IA or NH she is not winning SC.

[Galeel]

Harris could lose SC but keep in mind the SC black population still lives primarily in rural areas, and I expect Biden to do very well with those. But he may struggle with big diverse cities such as Atlanta or New Orleans. Harris should focus on GA, that's winnable for her. She may do better there with a more metropolitan black electorate(Atlanta+Gwinnett+Rockdale+Henry etc) as opposed to a more rural one.

Harris can't focus on Georgia. It isn't even on super Tuesday. If she hasn't had significant victories by the time she gets to Georgia, she is finished.

[Sestak]

"Big Four" Harris in sixth with 5%.

Warren in 3rd with 8%.

Great poll!

[Adam Griffin]

Yes, my family lives all over SC and everybody they know is voting for Biden. Biden is favored in SC unless Harris has an Iowa moment. Anybody who suggests otherwise has never lived in SC or their time there was strictly on the Penninsula.

Harris's candidacy has not made the splash in the black community that they thought it would. Nobody in my family is even thinking about her. Maybe she'll gain traction but Biden is on track to sweep the South even it is just through pluralities.

Yeah, my initial belief early on was that Biden would walk away with black voters (or at least start in that position, especially in the South, just like Hillary '08 did) and that such would give him an advantage. Some polling as of late showed that his support wasn't disproportionately clustered there, but it's still a strong base of support for him. I remember as one anecdotal example a straw poll we conducted locally a year or so ago, where practically all of Biden's support came from our black voters and a huge chunk of our black voters chose Biden. In an area where black voters are only the third-largest racial group in the Democratic coalition, he still came in a close first place because of that.

There is simply a greater propensity for black voters to choose candidate(s) in primaries who are "establishment" or otherwise well-known - and they tend to bloc-vote; hardly ever is the black vote fragmented. This is why 1988 was the last time that black voters didn't ultimately pick/decide the winner of the Democratic presidential primary. Throw in Biden's association with Obama and his natural starting point might be as strong as Hillary's was in 2015. Obviously black voters are not a monolith, but the simplest yet most accurate way to look at black primary voting patterns is to divide them into the half that live in the South versus the half that live elsewhere.

Black voters in the South are simply more consistent/predictable in primary voting patterns than black voters elsewhere (particularly in industrial centers, middle-class neighborhoods and areas with notable and historical union presence). The former group is largely responsible for the aggregate bloc-vote behavior and relatively consistent selection of candidates in primaries. If Biden is going to run up the score anywhere, it'll be here. Outside of the South, it's a lot more nuanced. It's easy to forget that even in 2016, Sanders basically won 40% of the non-Southern black vote (half of black voters nationally) - nearly in line with his national PV total.

[libertpaulian]

Yes, my family lives all over SC and everybody they know is voting for Biden. Biden is favored in SC unless Harris has an Iowa moment. Anybody who suggests otherwise has never lived in SC or their time there was strictly on the Penninsula.

Harris's candidacy has not made the splash in the black community that they thought it would. Nobody in my family is even thinking about her. Maybe she'll gain traction but Biden is on track to sweep the South even it is just through pluralities.

Yeah, my initial belief early on was that Biden would walk away with black voters (or at least start in that position, especially in the South, just like Hillary '08 did) and that such would give him an advantage. Some polling as of late showed that his support wasn't disproportionately clustered there, but it's still a strong base of support for him. I remember as one anecdotal example a straw poll we conducted locally a year or so ago, where practically all of Biden's support came from our black voters and a huge chunk of our black voters chose Biden. In an area where black voters are only the third-largest racial group in the Democratic coalition, he still came in a close first place because of that.

There is simply a greater propensity for black voters to choose candidate(s) in primaries who are "establishment" or otherwise well-known - and they tend to bloc-vote; hardly ever is the black vote fragmented. This is why 1988 was the last time that black voters didn't ultimately pick/decide the winner of the Democratic presidential primary. Throw in Biden's association with Obama and his natural starting point might be as strong as Hillary's was in 2015. Obviously black voters are not a monolith, but the simplest yet most accurate way to look at black primary voting patterns is to divide them into the half that live in the South versus the half that live elsewhere.

Black voters in the South are simply more consistent/predictable in primary voting patterns than black voters elsewhere (particularly in industrial centers, middle-class neighborhoods and areas with notable and historical union presence). The former group is largely responsible for the aggregate bloc-vote behavior and relatively consistent selection of candidates in primaries. If Biden is going to run up the score anywhere, it'll be here. Outside of the South, it's a lot more nuanced. It's easy to forget that even in 2016, Sanders basically won 40% of the non-Southern black vote (half of black voters nationally) - nearly in line with his national PV total.

If I'm Beto, I'm focusing all my non-IA/NH/NV energy on the South.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Killer Kamala is almost finished. We are doing God's work.

[Minnesota Mike]

Harris could lose SC but keep in mind the SC black population still lives primarily in rural areas, and I expect Biden to do very well with those. But he may struggle with big diverse cities such as Atlanta or New Orleans. Harris should focus on GA, that's winnable for her. She may do better there with a more metropolitan black electorate(Atlanta+Gwinnett+Rockdale+Henry etc) as opposed to a more rural one.

Harris can't focus on Georgia. It isn't even on super Tuesday. If she hasn't had significant victories by the time she gets to Georgia, she is finished.

Very likely Georgia is on Super Tuesday.  Georgia SOS sets election date and in 2016 it was on Super Tuesday and it likely will be again in 2020.

[RFayette 🇻🇦]

Another good poll for Biden.  I'd say he is the out-and-out favorite by a long shot, and everyone else better hope for some very good fortune for that to change.

[MT Treasurer]

This is a great poll for Biden and an awful poll for Sanders, whether people on this forum like it or not.