Candidates that would win or lose
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  Candidates that would win or lose
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Author Topic: Candidates that would win or lose  (Read 519 times)
Senator Spark
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« on: March 06, 2019, 11:26:42 PM »
« edited: March 06, 2019, 11:38:21 PM by Fmr. Deputy Speaker Spark »

My list:

WIN

Bernie Sanders - populist, most popular Senator in U.S., momentum from 2016, can exploit Trump by using economic inequality argument, relates to rural voters, young people, and independents. If he gets minorities out he will win.
Amy Klobuchar - populist, from Midwest.
Jay Inslee - dark horse, strong record as Governor and in Congress. Relative unknown, but rather impressive contender

LOSE

Cory Booker - too corporate, would not win WCW people
Elizabeth Warren - Pocahontas, NE liberal
Pete Buttigieg - No name ID, no mayor has ever been POTUS
John Delaney - No name ID, too moderate for primary
Julian Castro - Tied to Obama, too conservative for primary
Tulsi Gabbard - LGBTQ issues, Assad
Kirsten Gillibrand - Social issues, Hillary-lite, corporate
John Hickenlooper - Too bland

Not so sure about Harris, she's somewhere in the middle.

Vs President Trump and why??

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Hammy
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« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2019, 12:21:08 AM »

I'd swap Klobuchar for Gillibrand (Gillibrand at least doesn't come off as talking at people, while Klobuchar's hawkish stances and Trumpian behavior towards staff would depress the base) and add Buttigieg to the win list--while name recognition will certainly hurt in the primary, it wouldn't be an issue in the GE should he become the nominee.
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« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2019, 12:25:03 AM »

As of right now:

Win - ALL
Lose - NONE

This could, of course, change.
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Some of My Best Friends Are Gay
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« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2019, 12:31:28 AM »

It's foolish to say any hypothetical Democratic candidate wouldn't have at least a 40% chance of beating Trump.
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bagelman
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« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2019, 03:02:05 AM »

Candidates that would win or lose:

Bernie Sanders

Donald Clinton

Hillary Booker

Corey Gillibrand

Pete Pence

Elizabeth Harris
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andjey
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« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2019, 03:06:20 AM »

My list:

WIN

Bernie Sanders - populist, most popular Senator in U.S., momentum from 2016, can exploit Trump by using economic inequality argument, relates to rural voters, young people, and independents. If he gets minorities out he will win.
Amy Klobuchar - populist, from Midwest.
Jay Inslee - dark horse, strong record as Governor and in Congress. Relative unknown, but rather impressive contender

LOSE

Cory Booker - too corporate, would not win WCW people
Elizabeth Warren - Pocahontas, NE liberal
Pete Buttigieg - No name ID, no mayor has ever been POTUS
John Delaney - No name ID, too moderate for primary
Julian Castro - Tied to Obama, too conservative for primary
Tulsi Gabbard - LGBTQ issues, Assad
Kirsten Gillibrand - Social issues, Hillary-lite, corporate
Kamala Harris
John Hickenlooper - Too bland

This list
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History505
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« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2019, 08:07:45 AM »

I hope you realize that even if Delaney or Buttigieg became the nominee, low name ID won't be an issue. That's kinda stupid to think it would in the general.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2019, 09:25:52 AM »
« Edited: March 07, 2019, 09:30:36 AM by olowakandi »

Lose
Sanders would be painted as a socialist and a tax and spend liberal by Trump. He has a nice story, but Green Party vandidates arent looked at favorably by minorities: Dean and Nadar. Lack Latino and diversity to win Super Tuesday states of CA, IL, NY

Winner
Harris, she can pickup WWC class voters with a credible Veep. Dont need Sanders or Biden to get WWC. HICKENLOOPER, Heinrich or Brown should be on the shortlist
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Hoosier_Nick
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« Reply #8 on: March 07, 2019, 01:57:39 PM »

I hope you realize that even if Delaney or Buttigieg became the nominee, low name ID won't be an issue. That's kinda stupid to think it would in the general.
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RI
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« Reply #9 on: March 07, 2019, 02:27:18 PM »

Winner
Harris, she can pickup WWC class voters with a credible Veep.

Kamala "Reparations" Harris will never win over the WWC.
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S019
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« Reply #10 on: March 07, 2019, 02:27:21 PM »

Win: Biden
        Gabbard
        Delaney
        Hickenlooper

Lose: Harris
         Booker
         Sanders
         Warren
         Castro
         O’ Rourke
         Buttigeig
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Sestak
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« Reply #11 on: March 07, 2019, 02:46:01 PM »

Candidates that would win or lose:

Bernie Sanders

Donald Clinton

Hillary Booker

Corey Gillibrand

Pete Pence

Elizabeth Harris
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #12 on: March 07, 2019, 09:02:11 PM »

The only rational answer at this point is: "who knows?"
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fluffypanther19
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« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2019, 08:51:41 AM »

The only rational answer at this point is: "who knows?"
yep. never thought in a million years that trump win the GOP nomination, much less the actual presidency, but here we are
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2019, 09:21:36 AM »
« Edited: March 08, 2019, 09:31:57 AM by Lakigigar »

Win:
Biden (but narrower than polls indicate now)
Inslee (would do well enough, classic comfortable win)
Sanders (would comfortably win the EV, especially the tipping point state)
Brown (would comfortably win the EV, especially the tipping point state)
Gabbard (controversial, but so is Trump, and would do very well among WWC and the demographics that would be more inclined to support Trump otherwise, would sweep a lot of Obama - Trump voters, but would have a harder time convincing Romney - Clinton and upper class suburban voters, eventually if she became the nominee, they would support her).
Castro (good Sun Belt candidate, and might inspire enough people to have a decent win against a very unpopular incumbent)
Harris (good Sun Belt candidate and might do well enough among WWC voters to win comfortably)
O'Rourke (best GE candidate imo, would generate the Obama 2008 enthousiasm against a very unpopular incumbent, and generate enthusiasm in several demographics (upper class, suburbanites, latinos, women, millennials, etcetera). It would basically be a landslide)
Buttigieg (to win the primary, he would probably have campaigned good in the primaries and have some Obama red state appeal. He would comfortably win).
Bullock (would comfortably win the EV, especially the tipping point state)
Klobuchar (but more narrowly than most people think, possibly Hillary blue wall 2016 path. She has proven to me that she's not a strong GE candidate at all).

Not sure:
Warren (not sure about this one, she might win, but it would be the Hillary blue wall 2016 path, very vulnerable GE candidate, prone to gaffes but if her economic populist message resonates, she will win, but definitely a candidate Trump could win against if the Trump campaign play their cards right, so i would say it depends on how Warren is perceived by the electorate, and approach of Trump campaign, i still lean towards a Trump win).

Lose:
Delaney (depressed turn out among progressives + Trump's populism will sweep the WWC and Rust Belt)
Hickenlooper (same + boring white dude lack of appeal)
Booker (narrow loss by weaker performance in Rust Belt)

Lose bigly:
Gillibrand (she will lose Minnesota, Maine, Nevada and New Hampshire on top of the Trump 2016 states, and the only 'realistic' candidate still in the running that would lose the PV
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2019, 10:24:38 AM »

Win-

Everyone but Booker, Delaney, Bloomberg, and de Blasio.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2019, 10:47:58 AM »

Lol at “no name ID” you think the Democratic nominee won’t have 100% name ID any Nov 2020? K.
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Da2017
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« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2019, 11:56:32 AM »
« Edited: March 08, 2019, 04:58:05 PM by Da2017 »

Could win
Beto O Rourke He is young and outgoing. Also attractive,which matters unfortunately. Dems tend to win with those kinds of candidates.
Kamala Harris Someone who is comfortable in her own skin and knows how to connect to voters is someone who Trump would not want to face.
Bernie Sanders Could bring out disaffected voters.
Joe Biden Although he has Hillary like baggage,he at least has some charismatic presense. Ties to Obama could help with voters.
Pete Buttigieg See O,Rourke
Neutral
Kirsten Gillibrand She has a good pulse for the wind. At the same time it,s easy to paint her as opportunistic. Has some of the same flaws as Hillary. Not the most dynamic speaker. Comes off as somewhat cold and calculating. She does have sharper instincts than Warren. She put up an okay fight.
Amy Klobuchar Similar to Gillibrand minus the oppotunist charges. She brings midwestern creditability. Potentially could win back the blue wall. She is more Vp material.
At risk of losing
Cory Booker Being as inoffensive as possible is not going cut it. He seem afraid to take controversial stances. To me personally his appearances comes off stage managed.
Elizabeth Warren She has shown how not to take on Trump.Easy to paint as elitist and out of touch. The dna controversy will not go away as long as she is in the race.
Andrew Cuomo He is a male Hillary Clinton. Sleezy politician vibe. Spouts cliches and platitudes.
Wildcard
Tuisi Gabbard
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Big Boy Beto
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« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2019, 12:05:02 PM »

SUPER LANDSLIDE 1000 ELECTORAL VOTES
Y A N G

Win - not counting their chances in the primaries, and in order of likeliness

Biden - Rural appeal, name recognition, ties to Obama
Beto - Not a socialist and charismatic
Gabbard (Russians like her more than they like Trump, the only reason why she's hear)
Cuomo
Bennet
Buttigieg - Rural appeal

Eh
Sanders - Populist, but I think that calling him a socialist could still work.
Warren - see above
Klobuchar - Has rural appeal but not sure how good she is at campaigning.

Lose
The rest
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Arturo Belano
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« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2019, 02:01:11 PM »

Win-

Everyone but Booker, Delaney, Bloomberg, and de Blasio.

This, though I would also add in Hickenlooper.
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NEW JERSEY FOR MENENDEZ
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« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2019, 02:07:02 PM »

Andrew Yang would win by such a large margin that electoral votes would need to be added to account for his margin.
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S019
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« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2019, 02:27:03 PM »

Andrew Yang would win by such a large margin that electoral votes would need to be added to account for his margin.

Lol
He would lose badly
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2019, 06:25:31 PM »

"Opinion of the Democratic candidates for president"
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